Top-down approach to global dynamic modelling

Abstract

The sensitivity analysis of global models undertakin in Yugoslavia leads to some important implications. In the first place, the direct transfer of global models into different environments is hardly productive. Global models must be developed as a set of choices derived from different starting positions. Consequently, the activity in global modelling must be a decentralized world effort. If it comes down to the transfer of knowledge in this area, then the process should start by sharing the data bases needed for derivation of global models and software products. The assessment of the validity of the transferred model, modifications and adaptation to local needs must be generated by expert teams knowledgable in both local problems and system theory. Further evolution of the Top-Down Approach developed in Yugoslavia has lead to the following decision. A special multidisciplinary study group has been formed at the Faculty of Organizational Sciences, Belgrade, under the sponsorship of industry and planning boards. The main task of the Group shall be to implement the available software for global modelling on local computers and proceed, on the basis of previous critical studies on model sensitivity, to the assessment of existing results and generate appropriate modifications. In short, we believe that global modelling may eventually become a tool for improved decision making in industry and government but in order to reach that stage of reliability a great deal of academic and applied multidisciplinary research of a decentralized nature must be undertaken.