Skip to main content

Specification and estimation of econometric models with generalized expectations

  • Economical Models
  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
International Symposium on Systems Optimization and Analysis

Part of the book series: Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences ((LNCIS,volume 14))

  • 92 Accesses

Abstract

Construction of econometric models containing unobserved variables has presented the econometrician with difficult problems because contemporary methodology of these variables demands that they not be ignored, accepted practice has sought to find proxies for them in terms of only observed variables. It is argued that this substitution procedure is unnecessary. By introducing the generalized expectations model representation, explicit treatment of unobserved variables is permitted. This new representation is seen to contain the various econometric proxies as special cases. Furthermore, the generalized expectations representation yields a type of nonlinear state-space model which may be estimated using the techniques already existant in the control theory literature.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Institutional subscriptions

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  • Ando, A. and Modigliani, F. (1963), "The ‘Life Cycle’ Hypothesis of Saving: Aggregate Implications and Tests", Amer. Econ. Review, Vol. 53, no. 1, pp.55–84.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bischoff, C. W., (1971), "The Effect of Alternate Lag Distributions", in G. Fromm (ed.), Tax Incentives and Capital Spending, Washington, D. C.: Brookings Institution. (Chapter 2)

    Google Scholar 

  • Cooley, T. F. and Wall, K. D. (1978), "On the Identification of Time-Varving Parameters". mimeograph Univ. of California, Santa Barbara.

    Google Scholar 

  • Friedman, M., (1958), A Theory of the Consumption Function, Princeton, N. J.: Princeton University Press., (Chpts. 1–3, 6, 9).

    Google Scholar 

  • Geld, A. (ed.), Applied Optimal Estimation, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Goodwin, R. M., (1947), "Dynamical Coupline with Especial Reference to Markets Having Production Lags", Econometrica, Vol. 15, pp.181–204.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jazwinski, A. H., (1970), Stochastic Processes and Filtering Theory, New York: Academic Press. (Chapters 8,9).

    Google Scholar 

  • Jorgenson, D. W. (1963), "Capital Theory and Investment Behavior", Amer. Econ. Rev., Vol. 53 (May), pp. 247–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jorgenson, D. W., and Siebert, C. D., (1968), "Optimal Capital Accumulation and corporate Investment Behavior", Jour. Political Econ., Vol. 76, (November/December).

    Google Scholar 

  • Kydland, F. E. and Prescott, E. C., (1977), “Rules Rather than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans”, Jour. Political Economy, Vol. 85, (March) pp. 473–491.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kuh. E. and Schmalensee, R. (1973), An Introduction to Applied Macroeconomics, Amsterdam: North-Holland, (Chapter 2).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lucas, R. E., (1976), “Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique”, in The Phillips Curve and Labor Markets (K. Brunner and A. H. Meltzer, eds.), Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • McGarty, T. P., (1974), Stochastic Systems and State Estimation, New York: John Wiley & Sons. (Chapter 6).

    Google Scholar 

  • Mehra, R. K. (1974), “Identification in Control and Econometrics: Similarities and Difference”, Annals Econ. Soc. Measurement, Vol.3, no. 1, pp. 21–48.

    Google Scholar 

  • Nerlove, M., “Adaptive Expectations and Cobweb Phenomena”. Quarterlv Jour. Econ., Vol. 73. (Mav) pp. 227–240.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sargent, T. J. and Wallace, N., (1975). “'Rational’ Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule”. Jour. Political Econ., Vol. 83, (April) pp.241–254.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shiller, R., (1975), “Rational Expectations and the Dynamic Structure of Macroeconomic Models: A Critical Review”, NBER Working Paper No. 93, Computer Research Center, Cambridge, Mass. (June).

    Google Scholar 

  • Taylor, J. B., (1976), “Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model with Rational Expectations”, unpublished paper, Columbia University, (August).

    Google Scholar 

  • Tse, E., (1978), “A Quantitative Measure of Identifiability”, IEEE Trans. Systems, Man & Cvbernetics. Vol. SMC-8. No.1 (January) pp.1–8.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tse, E. and Weinert, H. (1975). “Structure Determination and Parameter Identification for Multivariable Stochastic Linear Systems.” IEEE Trans. Auto. Control, Vol. AC-20, no. 5, (October), pp.603–612.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Editor information

A. Bensoussan J. L. Lions

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 1979 Springer-Verlag

About this paper

Cite this paper

Wall, K.D. (1979). Specification and estimation of econometric models with generalized expectations. In: Bensoussan, A., Lions, J.L. (eds) International Symposium on Systems Optimization and Analysis. Lecture Notes in Control and Information Sciences, vol 14. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0002639

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BFb0002639

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-540-09447-0

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-540-35232-7

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

Publish with us

Policies and ethics