Assessing Probability of Fire in an Administrative District

  • Ching-An LeeEmail author
  • Yu-Chi Sung
  • Yuan-Shang Lin
  • Gary Li-Kai Hsiao
Conference paper


Building fires have accounted for 74% of all fire disasters in Taiwan. The local government needs a quantitative analysis approach for analyzing the probability of fire. This study adopted the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to assess probability of fire in 17 villages comprising in an administrative district in New Taipei City, Taiwan. A total of 5 assessment items and 18 assessment indices were comprised for fire probability. The weights were collated into a matrix in order to evaluate fire probability of ratings. The yearly average building fires and the average fire-affected area during 2005–2015 were used to verify the proposed approach. The data of fire were obtained from government databases. The findings obtained can facilitate assessments of fire probability and can also provide reference for building fire-prevention strategies. This study proposes an approach for probability of fire.


Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Probability of fire Fire safety management Fire risk 


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Ching-An Lee
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Yu-Chi Sung
    • 1
    • 3
  • Yuan-Shang Lin
    • 4
  • Gary Li-Kai Hsiao
    • 2
    • 5
  1. 1.Department of Civil EngineeringNational Taipei University of TechnologyTaipeiTaiwan
  2. 2.Fire DepartmentNew Taipei City GovernmentNew Taipei CityTaiwan
  3. 3.National Center for Research on Earthquake EngineeringTaipeiTaiwan
  4. 4.Central Police UniversityTaoyuan CityTaiwan
  5. 5.Department of Disaster Management, Taiwan Police CollegeTaipeiTaiwan

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