Will Rivers Become a Cause of Conflict, Rather Than Co-operation, in South Asia?

Abstract

South Asia faces among the most severe shortages of fresh water anywhere in the world. That scarcity will worsen amid growing demand because of economic and demographic growth and uncertainty over supply, partly as a result of climate change. In a region with a history of cross-border conflict and feeble regional institutions, some analysts warn competition over water supplies, notably rivers that cross borders, is most likely to lead to conflict between countries. This chapter argues resource scarcity need not automatically lead to conflict--abundance can equally be a cause of conflict. How political and military actors choose to respond to scarcity, seeking co-operation or an excuse for conflict, will do more to determine utcomes.