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Persian Gulf 2019

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Abstract

The US factor in the Indo-Iranian relations has re-emerged as the most severe foreign policy challenge after President Donald Trump announced the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal in May 2018. India seeks and maintains friendly ties with Iran both for its energy security interests and as a partner country to develop connectivity links with Afghanistan and Central Asia. The return and intensification of unilateral US economic sanctions can adversely impact the development of the Chabahar Port in southern Iran and associated infrastructure developments and limit India’s oil import options.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Rahn, Wesley and Ansary, Maryam. 2018. ‘Iranians Feel Pressure of New US Sanctions’, in Deutsche Welle, 5 November, https://www.dw.com/en/iranians-feel-the-pressure-of-new-us-sanctions/a-46162550, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  2. 2.

    Barzegar, Jamshid. 2018. ‘Iran Protests Signal Simmering Anti-Government Anger’, in Deutsche Welle, 17 May, https://www.dw.com/en/iran-protests-signal-simmering-anti-government-anger/a-43826965, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  3. 3.

    Khalaji, Mehdi. 2018. ‘Khamenei Attacks Moderates as Source of Iran’s Problems’, Policy Watch, No. 3002, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 15 August, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/khamenei-attacks-moderates-as-source-of-irans-problems, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  4. 4.

    Najjar, Farah. 2018. ‘What’s Driving the Protests in Iran?’ in Al-Jazeera, 3 January, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/factors-iran-protests-180103090723709.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  5. 5.

    Ibid.

  6. 6.

    Al-Jazeera. 2018. ‘Iran Death Toll Rises as Protests Continue’, 2 January, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/01/deaths-reported-iran-anti-government-protests-180102072448238.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  7. 7.

    Sofuoglu, Murat. 2019. ‘Are Iran’s Moderates Losing Power to Hardliners?’ in TRT World, 7 March, https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/are-iran-s-moderates-losing-power-to-hardliners-24747, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  8. 8.

    Barzegar, Jamshid. 2018. ‘Iran Protests Signal Simmering Anti-Government Anger’.

  9. 9.

    Najjar, Farah. 2018. ‘What’s Driving the Protests in Iran?’

  10. 10.

    Ibid.

  11. 11.

    Al-Jazeera. 2018. ‘Iran Death Toll Rises as Protests Continue’.

  12. 12.

    BBC News. 2018. ‘Iran’s Hijab Protests: The Girls of Revolution Street’, 5 February, https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-middle-east-42954970/iran-s-hijab-protests-the-girls-of-revolution-street, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  13. 13.

    Najjar, Farah. 2018. ‘What’s Driving the Protests in Iran?’

  14. 14.

    Reuters. 2017. ‘Price Protests Turn Political in Iran as Rallies Spread’, 30 December, https://in.reuters.com/article/iran-economy-protests/price-protests-turn-political-in-iran-as-rallies-spread-idINKBN1EO02X, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  15. 15.

    Najjar, Farah. 2018. ‘What’s Driving the Protests in Iran?’

  16. 16.

    Ibid.

  17. 17.

    Reuters. 2018. ‘Iranians Increasingly Angry at Country’s Wealth in Wake of New Sanctions’, in Haaretz, 7 November, https://www.haaretz.com/middle-east-news/iran/iranians-increasingly-angry-at-country-s-wealthy-in-wake-of-new-sanctions-1.6632637, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  18. 18.

    The White House. 2018. ‘Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’, 8 May, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-joint-comprehensive-plan-action/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  19. 19.

    Begley, Sarah. 2016. ‘Read Donald Trump’s Speech at AIPAC’, in TIME, 21 March, http://time.com/4267058/donald-trump-aipac-speech-transcript/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  20. 20.

    Dubowitz, Mark and Albright, David. 2017. ‘How Trump Can Improve the Iran Deal’, in Wall Street Journal, 25 September, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-trump-can-improve-the-iran-deal-1506381353, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  21. 21.

    Kalin, Stephen and Dadouch, Sarah. 2018. ‘Gulf Arab Allies Hail Triumph after U.S. Quits Iran Deal’, in Reuters, 9 May, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-gulf-reaction/gulf-arab-allies-hail-triumph-after-u-s-quits-iran-deal-idUSKBN1I93CU, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  22. 22.

    Khalaji, Mehdi. 2018. ‘Khamenei Attacks Moderates as Source of Iran’s Problems’.

  23. 23.

    Ibid.

  24. 24.

    Sterling, Toby. 2018. ‘Iran Files Suit in International Court against U.S. over Sanctions’, in Reuters, 17 July, https://in.reuters.com/article/iran-nuclear-usa-sanctions/iran-files-suit-in-international-court-against-u-s-over-sanctions-idINKBN1K71WN, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  25. 25.

    Official Website of the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 2019. ‘Statement by the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic of Iran’, 8 May, http://www.president.ir/en/109588, last accessed 3 June 2019.

  26. 26.

    Ibid.

  27. 27.

    Kamali Dehghan, Saeed. 2018. ‘Iran’s Leader Lambasts Trump over US Exit from Nuclear Deal’, in The Guardian, 9 May, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/09/iranian-hardliners-rejoice-over-us-nuclear-deal-exit, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  28. 28.

    Among others, Zarif visited China (May and July), Russia (May), Belgium (May) and India (May).

  29. 29.

    International Crisis Group. 2018. ‘How Europe Can Save the Iran Nuclear Deal’, Middle East Report, No. 185, 2 May, https://d2071andvip0wj.cloudfront.net/185-how-europe-can-save-the-iran-nuclear-deal.pdf, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  30. 30.

    Kalin, Stephen and Dadouch, Sarah. 2018. ‘Gulf Arab Allies Hail Triumph after U.S. Quits Iran Deal’.

  31. 31.

    G. Stafford, Edward. 2018. ‘U.S. Withdrawal from Iran Deal to Heighten Tension with Turkey’, in Ahval, 11 May, https://ahvalnews.com/us-turkey/us-withdrawal-iran-deal-heighten-tension-turkey, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  32. 32.

    Shahtahmasebi, Darius. 2019. ‘New Turkey-Iran-Qatar Axis is Rising in Middle East, and It Has Saudi Arabia Furious’, in RT, 22 March, https://www.rt.com/op-ed/454512-alliance-iran-qatar-turkey-saudi/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  33. 33.

    Sezer, Can. 2019. ‘Despite Rhetoric, Turkey Complies with U.S. Oil Sanctions on Iran’, in Reuters, 21 May, https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-oil-turkey/despite-rhetoric-turkey-complies-with-us-oil-sanctions-on-iran-idUSL5N22W3GK, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  34. 34.

    Reuters. 2018. ‘Turkey Told U.S. It Opposes Sanctions on Iran: Foreign Minister’, 24 July, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-iran-turkey/turkey-told-us-it-opposes-sanctions-on-iran-foreign-minister-idUSKBN1KE27J, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  35. 35.

    Sterling, Toby. 2018. ‘Iran Files Suit in International Court against U.S. over Sanctions’.

  36. 36.

    Ibid.

  37. 37.

    Westcott, Ben, Mazloumsaki, Sara and Beech, Samantha. 2018. ‘Iranian Foreign Minister Visits Russia and China to Try to Save Nuclear Deal’, in CNN, 14 May, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/05/14/middleeast/zarif-russia-china-iran-deal-intl/index.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  38. 38.

    Pietromarchi, Virginia. 2019. ‘EU Launches Mechanism to Bypass US Sanctions on Iran’, in Al-Jazeera, 31 January, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/eu-launches-mechanism-bypass-sanctions-iran-190128084529234.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  39. 39.

    Ibid.

  40. 40.

    BBC News. 2018. ‘Israel Strikes Iranian Targets in Syria in Response to Rocket Fire’, 10 May, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-44063022, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  41. 41.

    Hilterman, Joost. 2018. ‘Russia Can Keep the Peace between Israel and Iran’, in The Atlantic, 13 February, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/02/israel-syria-iran-hezbollah-putin-assad/553217/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  42. 42.

    Mansour, Renad. 2019. ‘Iraq’s 2018 Government Formation: Unpacking the Friction between Reform and the Status Quo’, LSE Middle East Centre Report, February, http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/100099/1/Mansour_Iraq_s_2018_government_formation_2019.pdf, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  43. 43.

    Ibid.

  44. 44.

    Ibid.

  45. 45.

    Reuters. 2018. ‘Iranian Guards Claims Missile Attack on Iraq-based Kurd Dissidents’, 9 September, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-iran/iranian-guards-claims-missile-attack-on-iraq-based-kurd-dissidents-idUSKCN1LP08Q, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  46. 46.

    Press TV. 2018. ‘25 Killed, 60 Injured in Terror Attack on Military Parade in Ahvaz’, 22 September, https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/09/22/574848/Iran-Ahvaz-terrorist-attack, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  47. 47.

    Regencia, Ted. 2018. ‘Iran: Who Was Responsible for the Deadly Attack in Ahvaz?’ in Al-Jazeera, 23 September, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/iran-responsible-deadly-attack-ahvaz-180922134648290.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  48. 48.

    Barnes, Tom. 2018. ‘Iran Fires Missiles at Syria Targeting Militants in Retaliation over Parade Shooting’, in The Independent, 1 October, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-syria-bombing-missiles-air-strike-abu-kamal-attack-latest-ahvaz-parade-shooting-a8562776.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  49. 49.

    Press TV. 2018. ‘Deadly Car Bomb Attack Hits Iran’s SE Port City of Chabahar’, 6 December, https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2018/12/06/582124/Iran-shooting-Chabahar, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  50. 50.

    Ibid.

  51. 51.

    Basravi, Zein. 2018. ‘After Ahvaz: Iran’s National Security Worries and Challenges’, in Al-Jazeera, 29 September, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/09/ahvaz-iran-national-security-worries-challenges-180929150734325.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  52. 52.

    Zarif, Javad. 2018. @JZarif Official Twitter Handled of Foreign Minister of Iran, 6 December, https://twitter.com/JZarif/status/1070666069575122944?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1070666069575122944&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Firanprimer.usip.org%2Fblog%2F2018%2Fnov%2F07%2Fpart-1-history-terrorism-against-iran, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  53. 53.

    Freedom House. 2019. Freedom in the World Report 2019, https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/iran, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  54. 54.

    BBC News. 2019. ‘Iran Warns Neighbours after Bombing Kills Revolutionary Guards’, 14 February, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-47238711, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  55. 55.

    Juneau, Thomas. 2019. ‘The Enduring Constraints on Iran’s Power after the Nuclear Deal’, in Political Science Quarterly, Spring 2019, vol. 134, no. 1, pp. 39–61.

  56. 56.

    The World Bank. 2019. ‘Iran’s Economic Update—April 2019’, 28 March, http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/930061553672411223/Iran-MEU-April-2019-Eng.pdf, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  57. 57.

    The World Bank. 2019. ‘Iran’s Economic Update—April 2019’.

  58. 58.

    Ibid.

  59. 59.

    Radio Farda. 2019. ‘Iran’s Currency Continued Downward Trend, Impacted by Nuclear Decision’, 9 May, https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-s-currency-continues-downward-trend-impacted-by-nuclear-decision/29930597.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  60. 60.

    Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty. 2018. ‘Iran’s Inflation Rate Will Soar to Over 40 Percent by Year-End, IMF Says’, 14 November, https://www.rferl.org/a/irans-inflation-rate-will-soar-over-40-percent-year-end-imf-says/29599407.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  61. 61.

    Basravi, Zein. 2018. ‘Iran Unemployment Crisis, Rising Living Costs Bite amid Sanctions’, in Al-Jazeera, 21 August, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/08/iran-unemployment-crisis-rising-living-costs-bite-sanctions-180821104357766.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  62. 62.

    The World Bank. 2018. ‘Iran: Overview’, https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  63. 63.

    Ibid.

  64. 64.

    Ibid.

  65. 65.

    Herber Smith Freehills. 2018. ‘Key Developments in Iran, January 2018’, https://www.herbertsmithfreehills.com/latest-thinking/key-developments-in-iran-january-2018, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  66. 66.

    BBC News. 2018. ‘Caspian Sea: Five Countries Sign Deal to End Dispute’, 12 August, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-45162282, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  67. 67.

    Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer. 2018. ‘The New Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea: New Opportunities and New Challenges’, 1 November 2018, http://knowledge.freshfields.com/en/Global/r/3848/the_new_convention_on_the_legal_status_of_the_caspian_sea, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  68. 68.

    Freedom House. 2019. Freedom in the World Report 2019.

  69. 69.

    Reuters. 2018. ‘Iran Bans English in Primary Schools after Leaders’ Warning’, 7 January, https://www.reuters.com/article/iran-english/update-1-iran-bans-english-in-primary-schools-after-leaders-warning-idUSL8N1P20DS, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  70. 70.

    Amnesty International. 2019. ‘Iran: Shocking 33-Year Prison Term and 148 Lashes for Women’s Rights Defender Nasrin Sotoudeh’, 11 March, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/03/iran-shocking-33-year-prison-term-and-148-lashes-for-womens-rights-defender-nasrin-sotoudeh/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  71. 71.

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  72. 72.

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  73. 73.

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  74. 74.

    Freedom House. 2019. Freedom in the World Report 2019.

  75. 75.

    United States Institute of Peace. 2018. ‘US Report: Religious Freedom in Iran’, 29 May, https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2018/may/29/us-report-religious-freedom-iran, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  76. 76.

    United Nations Development Program (UNDP). 2018. ‘Human Development Indices and Indicators: 2018 Statistical Update’, http://hdr.undp.org/sites/all/themes/hdr_theme/country-notes/IRN.pdf, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  77. 77.

    Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India (MEA, GoI). 2002. ‘India-Iran, Joint Press Statement’, 28 June, http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/7573/India__Iran_Joint_Press_Statement, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  78. 78.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘India-Iran Joint Statement during Visit of the President of Iran to India’, 17 February, https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/29495/indiairan+joint+statement+during+visit+of+the+president+of+iran+to+india+february+17+2018, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  79. 79.

    ANI. 2018. ‘India, Iran Welcome Lease Contract for Chabahar Port Operations’, 17 February, https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/india-iran-welcome-lease-contract-for-chabahar-port-operations201802171916130002/, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  80. 80.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘India-Iran Joint Statement during Visit of the President of Iran to India’.

  81. 81.

    Ibid.

  82. 82.

    Ibid.

  83. 83.

    Ibid.

  84. 84.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘Question No. 4327 Iranian President’s Visit to India’, 21 March, https://mea.gov.in/lok-sabha.htm?dtl/29681/QUESTION_NO4327_IRANIAN_PRESIDENTS_VISIT_TO_INDIA, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  85. 85.

    Business Standard. 2019. ‘Iran’s Pasargad Bank to Open Branch in Mumbai in 3 Months: Nitin Gadkari’, 8 January, https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/iran-s-pasargad-bank-to-open-branch-in-mumbai-in-3-months-nitin-gadkari-119010800380_1.html, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  86. 86.

    Ibid.

  87. 87.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘India-Iran Joint Statement during Visit of the President of Iran to India’.

  88. 88.

    Ibid.

  89. 89.

    The News Minute. 2018. ‘India is a Living Example of Peaceful Co-existence: Iranian President Rouhani in Hyderabad’, 16 February, https://www.thenewsminute.com/article/india-living-example-peaceful-co-existence-iranian-president-rouhani-hyderabad-76541, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  90. 90.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘India and Iran Hold Foreign Office Consultations’, 16 July, https://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/30066/India_and_Iran_hold_Foreign_Office_Consultations, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  91. 91.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘External Affairs Minister Meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister’, 28 May, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/29925/External_Affairs_Ministers_meeting_with_Iranian_Foreign_Minister, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  92. 92.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘Press Release on Visit of National Security Advisor to Iran’, 26 September, https://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/30431/press+release+on+visit+of+national+security+advisor+to+iran, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  93. 93.

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  94. 94.

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  95. 95.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘First Trilateral Meeting between India, Afghanistan and Iran of the Coordination Council of the Chabahar Agreement’, 23 October, https://www.mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/30531/First+Trilateral+Meeting+between+India+Afghanistan+and+Iran+of+the+Coordination+Council+of+the+Chabahar+Agreement, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  96. 96.

    MEA, GoI. 2018. ‘First Meeting of the Follow-up Committee between India, Afghanistan and Iran for Operationalization of the Chabahar Agreement’, 24 December, https://mea.gov.in/press-releases.htm?dtl/30813/First_meeting_of_the_Followup_Committee_between_India_Afghanistan_and_Iran_for_operationalization_of_the_Chabahar_Agreement, last accessed on 3 June 2019.

  97. 97.

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  98. 98.

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  99. 99.

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  104. 104.

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  105. 105.

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  1. School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    P. R. Kumaraswamy

  2. Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi, Delhi, India

    Md. Muddassir Quamar

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Kumaraswamy, P.R., Quamar, M.M. (2020). Iran. In: Persian Gulf 2019. Persian Gulf. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-1432-6_3

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