Abstract
In recent years transportation planners and engineers have begun to utilize traffic simulation models to estimate and forecast new transportation operations and reliability metrics. For example, the Highway Capacity Manual, Sixth Edition: A Guide for Multimodal Mobility Analysis (HCM-6) has recently adopted 1) passenger car estimation methods that are based on the microsimulation model VISSIM, and 2) urban arterial reliability estimation methods that are based on a Monte Carlos simulation technique. The advantage to simulation methods is that the metrics, which may be based on central tendency (e.g. mean, median), dispersion (variance, percentile), or even a combination of other metrics (e.g. reliability index), may be easily calculated and/or estimated. For this reason, the number of metrics developed and used has continued to increase. As one example, many researchers over the past decade have focused on developing and estimating metrics related to network reliability and resilience. However, it is an open research question on when and where these simulation approaches are appropriate to use. This paper will discuss a number of issues related to using simulation for estimating transportation metrics with a focus on model assumptions and model calibration. Specific examples from realworld test beds will be provided. Lastly, the paper will provide an overview of lessons learned and areas of future research.
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Acknowledgements
The work discussed in this paper was based on the work of a number of former and current graduate students including Seung Jun Kim, Wonho Kim, Jianan Zhou, Ernest Tufuor, Justice Appiah, and Bhaven Naik and a number of colleagues including Cliff Spiegelman, Eun Sug Park, and Elizabeth Jones. I am particularly grateful to George List, Nagui Rouphail, and Jim Bonneson, who took lead roles in developing the innovative HCM-6 methodologies described in this paper and who were very gracious in sharing their expertise on how the HCM-6 models were developed, calibrated, and validated.
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Rilett, L.R. (2020). Using Simulation to Estimate and Forecast Transportation Metrics: Lessons Learned. In: Ha-Minh, C., Dao, D., Benboudjema, F., Derrible, S., Huynh, D., Tang, A. (eds) CIGOS 2019, Innovation for Sustainable Infrastructure. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, vol 54. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-0802-8_3
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