Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Rice Yield Using a Crop Growth Model and Activities Toward Adaptation: Targeting Three Provinces in Indonesia

Abstract

In accordance with the Paris Agreement, the assessment of climate change impacts on rice productivity is expected at both the national and local (i.e., province or state) levels in Asian countries, to create and implement adaptation plans for climate change. However, there is limited information on the impact of climate change on local rice production in developing countries, especially at the local level. To this end, we aimed to clarify this impact on the yield of local rice in Indonesia in the next 25 years, using a crop growth model, MATCRO-Rice, in three provinces including North Sumatra, East Java, and Bali. Climate change was predicted to reduce the yield primarily because of increase in air temperature. Furthermore, the simulated yield reductions were different among the districts in each province, indicating the importance of regional adaptation priorities. We discussed several adaptation strategies with local stakeholders in each province from the viewpoints of feasibility and priority. Some strategies, such as change in cultivars to have high tolerance to high air temperature, which was ranked as being highly feasible and high priority, are expected to be future adaptation options.