Abstract
In this study, we used a statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change and adaptations on the occurrence of chalky rice grains (CRG), recognized as an indicator of rice quality. The target variety was ‘Koshihikari’, the most widely grown cultivar in Japan. A large number of ensemble climate projection data sets were used to provide probability information for impact assessment and adaptation simulations. The impact assessment predicted that the occurrence of CRGs would increase with increasing temperature in all regions of Japan. One adaptation simulation indicated that moving the transplanting date would be effective for reducing the occurrence of CRG. A further adaptation simulation using a virtual heat-tolerant variety indicated that this would also be effective in reducing CRG throughout Japan. The results of this study will be useful to stakeholders such as farmers and policymakers when considering the impact of climate change on rice quality.
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Acknowledgements
We are grateful to Dr. Yasushi Ishigooka for providing the transplanting date data. Part of this work was supported by the Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT), MEXT, Japan. In this study, we utilized the database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF), which was produced using the Earth Simulator as a ‘Strategic Project with Special Support’ of JAMSTEC under corporation among the Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (SOUSEI), the SI-CAT, Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU), and the Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS), which are all sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology (MEXT), Japan.
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Takimoto, T., Masutomi, Y., Tamura, M. (2019). Impact Assessment and Adaptation Simulation for Chalky Rice Grain in the Cultivar ‘Koshihikari’ in Japan Using Large Ensemble Climate Projection Data Sets. In: Iizumi, T., Hirata, R., Matsuda, R. (eds) Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9235-1_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-9235-1_2
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