Abstract
The new doctrine “Reliability, Risks, Safety” (RRS) is a system of views and provisions that makes it possible to create a “bridge” for linking the classical reliability theory and the system safety theory in order to solve system safety issues based on the methodology of calculating risks in the “rare events” problem (according to ICAO) using the Fuzzy Sets approach.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures for NASA Managers and Practitioners, Office of Safety and Mission Assurance NASA. Washington, DC 20546, August. 2002 (Version 2/2).
McCarthy J (1999) U.S. Naval Research Laboratory; Schwartz N., AT & T. Modeling risk with the flight operations risk assessment system (FORAS). ICAO Conference in Rio de Janeiro, Brasil
Documents of the 37th ICAO Assembly (Oct 2011, Montreal).
Severtsev NA (ed) (2008) Kuklev E.A. “Fundamentals of the system safety theory”, RAS Dorodnitsin CC, Moscow, pp 175–180 (in Russian)
Issues of the system safety and stability theory. / Issue 7. Ed. by Severtsev N.A. / Moscow: RAS Dorodnitsin CC, 2005. (in Russian)
Accident Prevention Manual. Doc. 9422-AN/923 (1984) International Civil Aviation Organization
Risk management—Principles and guidelines. Standards (Australia)—AS/NSZ ISO 31000 (2009)
Smurov MY, Kuklev EA, Evdokimov VG, Gipich GN (2012) Safety of civil aircraft flights taking into account the risks of negative events. J Transp Russ Fed 1(38):54–58 (in Russian)
Malinetskiy GG, Kulba VV, Kosyachenko SA, Shnirman MG et al (2000) Risk management. Risk. Sustainable development. Synergetics. Moscow: Nauka, 431p. Series “Cybernetics”, RAS (in Russian)
Aronov IZ et al (2009) Reliability and safety of technical systems, Moscow (in Russian)
Fujita M (2009) Frequency of rare event occurrences (ICAO collision risk model for Separation minima). RVSM. ICAO, Doc. 2458. EIWAC, Tokio
Henley EJ, Kumamoto H (1984) Reliability engineering and risk assessment. Mechanical Engineering, Moscow (translated from English: VS Syromyatnikov (ed)). (in Russian)
Kuklev EA (1999) Predicting the occurrence of aviation accidents on the basis of chains of random events: collection of materials of the International Symposium MAKS-99 (CIA). (in Russian)
Aronov IZ (1998) Modern problems of safety of technical systems and risk analysis. Standards and quality, no 3. (in Russian)
Volodin VV (ed) 1993( Reliability in technology. Scientific-technical, economic and legal aspects of reliability. Blagonravov Mechanical Engineering Research Institute, ISTC “Reliability of Machines” RAS, Moscow, pp 119–123. (in Russian)
Orlov AI, Pugach OV (2011) Approaches to the general theory of risk. RFBR Grant-2010. Bauman MSTU. Moscow. (in Russian)
Orlovskiy SA (1981) Problems of decision making with fuzzy source information. “Science” FM, Moscow. (in Russian)
Rybin VV (2007) Fundamentals of the fuzzy sets theory and fuzzy logic. Study guide. STU Moscow State Aviation Institute, Moscow, 95 p. (in Russian)
British Standart (1992) Quality management and quality-assurance. Vocabulary. VS EN ISO-8402
Amer MY (2012) 10 Things you should know about safety management systems (SMS). SM ICG, Washington
Arnold VI (1995) Catastrophe theory. “Science” FM, Moscow. (in Russian)
Ryabinin IA (1997) Reliability, survivability and safety of ship electric power systems. Kuznetsov Naval Academy, St. Petersburg. (in Russian)
Waitmann M (2011) UN: Japanese nuclear power plants are not ready for a tsunami. www.metronews.ru, 02 June 11. (in Russian)
Annex 19: C-WP/13935—ANC Report (March 2013), based on AN-WP/8680 (Find) Review of the Air Navigation Commission, Montreal, Canada
Livanov VD, Novozhilov GV, Neymark MS (2013) Flight safety management system. IL SMS. “AviaSoyuz”, No 1, pp 14–21. (in Russian)
Novozhilov AB, Neymark MS, Cesarskiy LG (2003) Flight safety (Concept and technology). Mechanical engineering, Moscow, 140 p. (in Russian)
SMS & B-RSA (2008): “Boeing”, 2012.
SMM (Safety Management Manual): Doc 9859_AN474—Doc FAA (2012)
Kuklev EA (2005) Estimation of catastrophe risks in highly reliable systems. Materials of the 13th international conference “Problems of complex system safety management”. RAS ICS, Moscow, 55 p. (in Russian)
CATS (Casual Aviation Technical Systems) (2012) Simulation of cause-effect relations in aviation systems on the basis of risk assessment. Research of the Air Accident Investigation Commission (Netherlands), ICAO (in Russian)
Bykov AA, Demin VF, Shevelyov YV (1989) Development of the basics of risk analysis and safety management. Collection of scientific papers of the Kurchatov Institute of Atomic Energy. Publ. House IAE, Moscow. (in Russian)
Smurov MY, Kuklev EA, Evdokimov VG, Gipich GN (2012) Development of tools for assessing the risks of occurrence of risks of AUI in the AASS of the airport system. J Transp Russ Fed 2(39). (in Russian)
Barzilovich EY, Kashtanov VA, Kovalenko IN (1971) On minimax criteria in reliability problems. ASUSSR Bull. Ser “Technical Cybernetics” 3:87–98. (in Russian)
Gipich GN (2005) The concept and models of predicting and mitigating risks in ensuring the airworthiness of civil aircraft. Moscow State University, TEIS, Moscow. (in Russian)
Itskovich AA (2010) Formation of requirements for ATS unit diagnostic systems based on the results of logic-probabilistic modeling. MSTU CA Scientific Bulletin, series PA LA, No 8, 18 p. (in Russian)
Kuklev EA (2005) Decision making in systems based on management of possible risks of undesirable consequences. Materials of the 13th international conference “Problems of complex system safety management”. RAS ICS, Moscow, 87 p. (in Russian)
Kirpichev IG (2011) On the prospects and problems in developing the infrastructure for the maintenance of An-140, A-148 aircraft. Aircraft construction. “Aviation Industry”, no 2, Moscow, 55 p. (in Russian)
Kabanov SA (1997) System management on predictive models. St. Petersburg University. St. Petersburg. (in Russian)
Korolev VY, Bening VE, Shorgin SY (2011) Mathematical foundations of the theory of risk. Fizmatlit, Moscow. (in Russian)
Dalinger YM, Isaev SA, Kuklev EA (2012) Risk management in the safety management system for RVSM. J Transp Russ Fed 6(43), 55 p. (in Russian)
Evdokimov VG, Martynov VV (2007) To the issue of system safety. Proceedings of the RAS ISA. Dyn Heterogenous Syst 29(1):116–120. (in Russian)
Bolotin VV (1998) The theory of reliability of machines, Mechanical engineering. Encyclopedia. Ed. board: K.V. Frolov (chair) et al. Reliability of machines, vol IV.-3. Mechanical Engineering, Moscow. (in Russian)
Accidents and catastrophes. Prevention and mitigation of consequences. Study Guide. In 3 books. In: Kochetkov KE, Kotlyarevsky VA, Zabegayev AV. Publishing House ASV, Moscow. (in Russian)
Documents of the ICAO High-level Conference (SMM). March 2010, Montreal.
Shor YB, Kuzmin FI (1968) Tables for reliability analysis and control. SOV Radio, Moscow. (in Russian)
Prokhorov PZ, Rozanov YA (1987) Probability theory (basic concepts, limit theorems, random processes). “Science”—FM, Moscow. (in Russian)
Mushik E, Muller P (1990) Methods of making technical decisions: Translated from German. Moscow: Mir. (in Russian)
Gipich G, Evdokimov V, Kuklev E, Mirzayanov F (2013) Tools: identification of hazard & assessment of risk. Report at the ICAO meeting “Face to Face”. “Boeing” Corporation, Washington
Abramov BA, Gipich GN, Evdokimov VG, Chinyuchin YM (2013) Determination of the compliance service providers’ safety management system to air transport standards. Sci Bull MSTU CA. 187(1):36–41. (in Russian)
Putin VV Russian nuclear power plants are reliable. (in Russian)
GOST 23743-88. Aircraft. Nomenclature of the flight safety, reliability, testability and maintainability indices. (in Russian)
General rules for risk assessment and management (resource management at life cycle stages, risk and reliability analysis management—URRAN). JSC Russian Railways standard STO RR 1.02.034-2010. Moscow (2010). (in Russian)
Procedure for determining the acceptable level of risk (URRAN). JSC Russian Railways standard STO RR 1.02.035-2010. Moscow (2010). (in Russian)
Sakach RV, Zubkov BV, Davidenko MF et al (1989) (edited by Sakach RV) Flight safety. Textbook. Transport. Moscow, 239 p. (in Russian)
Zubkov BV, Prozorov SE (2013) Flight safety. Textbook. Ministry of Education AMA. Ulyanovsk. (in Russian)
Evdokimov VG Integrated safety management system for aviation activities based on ICAO standards and recommended practices. J TR 2(45):54–57. (in Russian)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Kuklev E.A., Shapkin V.S., Filippov V.L., Shatrakov Y.G. (2019). New Doctrine “Reliability, Risk, Safety” for System Safety (Flight Safety) Assessment on The Basis of the Fuzzy Sets Approach. In: Aviation System Risks and Safety. Springer Aerospace Technology. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8122-5_2
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8122-5_2
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-13-8121-8
Online ISBN: 978-981-13-8122-5
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)