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China, India, and Myanmar: Playing Rohingya Roulette?

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South Asia in Global Power Rivalry

Part of the book series: Global Political Transitions ((GLPOTR))

Abstract

The 2017 crackdown on Rakhine Rohingyas by the Myanmar army (Tatmadaw) pushed more than 600,000 refugees into Bangladesh. Both Western and Islamic countries denounced Aung Sang Suu Kyi’s government, but both Asian giants, China and India, supported Myanmar’s actions. Both also have high stakes in Myanmar given their long-term geopolitics and geoeconomic South and Southeast Asian plans. In spite of Myanmar-based commonalities, China’s and India’s approaches differ significantly, predicting equally dissimilar outcomes. This chapter examines their foreign policy and stakes in Myanmar in order to draw a sketch of the future of Rakhine Rohingyas stuck in Bangladesh.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    OCHA’s latest report indicates that nearly 646,000 Rohingyas entered Bangladesh since August 25. UNOCHA, “Rohingya Refugee Crisis,” from: http://interactive.unocha.org/emergency/2017_rohingya/ last consulted 11 December 2018.

  2. 2.

    Islam, “Dragon meets elephant: China and India’s stakes in Myanmar,” The Daily Star, October 12, 2017, from: http://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/perspective/mayanmar-rohingya-refugee-crisis-dragon-meets-elephant-myanmar-1475020, last consulted January 25, 2018.

  3. 3.

    Li Chenyang, “China-Myanmar Relations since 1988,” Harmony and Development: ASEAN China Relations (Singapore: World Scientific, 2007): 49–64.

  4. 4.

    Yuh-Ming Tsai, “Breakout: China Foreign Policy toward Myanmar,” Feng Chia Journal of Humanities 8 (2010): 302–325.

  5. 5.

    Shahidul Islam, op. cit.

  6. 6.

    Wai Moe, “China signs Burmese gas deal for 30-year supply,” The Irrawaddy, December 26, 2008, from: http://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=14849, last consulted February 10, 2018.

  7. 7.

    Wu Hongying, “CPPCC thematic consultations for the proposal of building the Indian Ocean channel,” 21st-Century Business Herald, March 10, 2009, from: www1.21cbh.com/HTML/2009-3-10/HTML_SKBAI7DM7BKJ.html, last consulted February 10, 2018.

  8. 8.

    Islam, op. cit.

  9. 9.

    Xiangming Chen, “China’s Key Cities: From Local Places to Global Players,” East by Southeast, January 7, 2016, from: http://www.eastbysoutheast.com/tag/ruili/, last consulted February 18, 2018.

  10. 10.

    Ibid.; and Islam, op. cit.

  11. 11.

    Jürgen Haacke, Myanmar’s Foreign Policy: Domestic Influences and International Implications (New York: Routledge, 2006).

  12. 12.

    Irina Slav, “China’s oil import dependency deepens,” The Oil Price.com, Washington DC, January 13, 2017, from: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinas-Oil-Import-Dependency-Deepens.html, last consulted February 22, 2018.

  13. 13.

    Zhao Hong, “India and China: Rivals or partners in Southeast Asia?” Contemporary Southeast Asia 29, no. 1 (2007): 121–143.

  14. 14.

    Shibani Mahtani, “China moves to revive its sway in Myanmar,” The Wall Street Journal, 28 February 2016, from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-moves-to-revive-its-sway-in-myanmar-1456697644, last consulted February 23, 2018.

  15. 15.

    Islam, op. cit.

  16. 16.

    Ibid.

  17. 17.

    Lianhezaobao, “China has the advantage over the scrambling for the natural gas of Myanmar [Zhengduo miandian tiranqi, zhongguo zhanshangfeng],” United Morning News, Singapore, 2007, from: http://www.zaobao.com.sg/, last consulted February 18, 2018.

  18. 18.

    Ibid.

  19. 19.

    Saibal Dasgupta, “China’s huge Rakhine investment behind its tacit backing of Myanmar on Rohingyas,” The Times of India, September 26, 2017, from https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-will-back-myanmar-on-rohingya-crisis-because-it-is-investing-in-rakhine/articleshow/60845089.cms, last consulted June 1, 2018.

  20. 20.

    Islam, op. cit.

  21. 21.

    Ibid.

  22. 22.

    Kai Schultz, “Sri Lanka, Struggling With Debt, Hands a Major Port to China,” The New York Times, December 12, 2017, from: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/12/world/asia/sri-lanka-china-port.html, last consulted June 2, 2018.

  23. 23.

    International Crisis Group (ICG), “China’s Myanmar dilemma,” Asia Report, No. 177 (Brussels: 2009), from: http://www.crisisgroup.org/~/media/Files/asia/north-east-asia/177_chinas_myanmar_dilemma.pdf, last consulted February 22, 2018.

  24. 24.

    Aung Myoe Maung, Building the Tatmadaw: Myanmar Armed Forces since 1948 (Singapore: ISEAS Publishing, 2009).

  25. 25.

    Gurmeet Kanwal, “A strategic perspective on India-Myanmar Relations,” Burma/Myanmar: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution & Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 2010): 134–137.

  26. 26.

    Ibid.

  27. 27.

    Ibid.

  28. 28.

    Li Chenyang, “The policies of China and India toward Myanmar,” Myanmar/Burma: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests (Washington DC: Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Brookings Institution Press, 2010): 114–115.

  29. 29.

    Gurmeet Kanwal, “A strategic perspective on India-Myanmar Relations,” Burma/Myanmar: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution & Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 2010): 134–137.

  30. 30.

    Manu Pubby, “Top Myanmar Gen in Delhi with military shopping list,” Indian Express, April 24, 2007, from: http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/top-myanmar-gen-in-delhi-with-military-shopp/29186/, last consulted January 22, 2018.

  31. 31.

    Li Chenyang, “The policies of China and India toward Myanmar,” Myanmar/Burma: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests (Washington DC: Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Brookings Institution Press, 2010): 114–115.

  32. 32.

    Bart Gaens and Olli Ruohomäki, “India’s ‘Look East’ – ‘Act East’ Policy: Hedging as a Foreign Policy Tool,” Briefing Paper, no. 222, from: https://www.fiia.fi/en/publication/indias-look-east-act-east-policy, last consulted 21 March 2018.

  33. 33.

    PTI, “No border dispute between India and Myanmar states government,” The Economic Times, August 1, 2018, from: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/no-border-dispute-between-india-and-myanmar-states-government/articleshow/65229882.cms, last consulted 6 December 2018.

  34. 34.

    Subir Bhaumik, “Why do China, India back Myanmar over Rohingya crisis?” Prod. The Week in Asia, October 18, 2017, from: http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2115839/why-do-china-india-back-myanmar-over-rohingya-crisis last consulted 22 February 2018.

  35. 35.

    Ibid.

  36. 36.

    TNN, “Indo-Thai-Myanmar Highway,” The Times of India, December 24, 2003, from: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Indo-Thai-Myanmar-highway/articleshow/378309.cms, last consulted January 15, 2018.

  37. 37.

    C. S. Kuppuswamy, “Indo-Myanmar relations: Visit of senior General Maung Aye,” South Asia Analysis, April 9, 2008, from: www.southasia analysis.org/papers27/paper2664.html, last consulted 25 February 2018.

  38. 38.

    Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India. “India’s neighbours: Annual report 2007–2008” (2008).

  39. 39.

    Qian Feng, “Yinmian hezuo, gequ suoxu [India and Myanmar get what they need through cooperation],” Xinhuanet, November 1, 2004, from: http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2004-11/01/content_2162360.htm, last consulted 1 January 2018.

  40. 40.

    Ministry of Development of North Western Region, India, “Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project,” 25 April 2014, from: http://mdoner.gov.in/infrastructure/kaladan-multi-modal-transit-transport-project-inland last consulted June 1, 2018.

  41. 41.

    Islam, op. cit.

  42. 42.

    Ministry of Development of North Western Region, India, “Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project,” 25 April 2014, from: http://mdoner.gov.in/infrastructure/kaladan-multi-modal-transit-transport-project-inland last consulted June 1, 2018.

  43. 43.

    Roshan Iyer, “A promising trilateral: India-Myanmar-Thailand,” The Diplomat, September 14 2,017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/a-promising-trilateral-india-myanmar-thailand/ last consulted 19 January 2018.

  44. 44.

    Islam, op. cit.

  45. 45.

    U.S. Energy Information Administration, Country Analysis Brief: India, June 14, 2016, from: http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/EIA_Country_Analysis_Brief_India_14jun2016.pdf, last consulted 29 January 2018; and S&P Global. India’s natural gas demand to double to 516.97 mil cu m/day by 2021–22: report. April 29, 2014, from: https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/mumbai/indias-natural-gas-demand-to-double-to-51697-26778967, last consulted 29 January 2018.

  46. 46.

    Anand Kumar, “India-Myanmar gas pipeline: With or without Bangladesh?” n.d.

  47. 47.

    Ibid.

  48. 48.

    Gurmeet Kanwal, “A strategic perspective on India-Myanmar relations,” Burma/Myanmar: Inside Challenges, Outside Interests (Washington DC: The Brookings Institution & Konrad Adenauer Foundation, 2010): 134–137.

  49. 49.

    TNN, “Gail picks up 30% in Myanmar block,” The Economic Times, December 9, 2006, from: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/energy/oil-gas/gail-picks-up-30-in-myanmar-block/articleshow/748562.cms, last consulted 17 February 2018.

  50. 50.

    Kanwal, op. cit.

  51. 51.

    Helen James, “Myanmar’s International Relations Strategy,” Contemporary Southeast Asia 26.3 (2004): 530–553.; and Indian Navy, Annual Report 2003–2004 (New Delhi: Ministry of Defence, Government, 2004).

  52. 52.

    MoD, India, Annual Reports 2004–06 (New Delhi: Ministry of Defence, Government of India, 2006).

  53. 53.

    Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, Police Forces: Annual Report 2003–2004 (New Delhi: Government of India, 2004).

  54. 54.

    Amara Thiha, “The bumpy relationship between India and Myanmar: Delhi-Naypyidaw relations may fall short, but India has made progress in some areas,” The Diplomat, August 25, 2017, from: https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/the-bumpy-relationship-between-india-and-myanmar/, last consulted 15 January 2018.

  55. 55.

    Charlotte Gao, “On Rohingya issue, Both China and India back Myanmar government,” The Diplomat, September 13, 2017, from: https://thediplomat.com/2017/09/on-rohingya-issue-both-china-and-india-back-myanmar-government/, last consulted 30 January 2018.

  56. 56.

     Bhaumik, op. cit.

  57. 57.

    Ibid.

  58. 58.

    Human Rights Watch. “India: Don’t forcibly return Rohingya refugees.” August 17, 2017, from: https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/08/17/india-dont-forcibly-return-rohingya-refugees, last consulted 19 February 2018.

  59. 59.

    Bhaumik, op. cit.

  60. 60.

    Ibid.

  61. 61.

    Ibid.

  62. 62.

    Ibid.

  63. 63.

    Ibid.

  64. 64.

    The Myanmar Times. “Russia to sell six fighter jets to Myanmar,” January 23, 2018, from: https://www.mmtimes.com/news/russia-sell-six-fighter-jets-myanmar.html, last consulted 22 February 2018; and Atul Bharadwaj, “Myanmar and MiG-29s,” Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, 2002. http://www.ipcs.org/article/military-and-defence/myanmar-and-mig-29s-751.html, last consulted 23 February 2018.

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  1. Global Studies & Governance Program, Independent University of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Hossain Ahmed Taufiq

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  1. Independent University of Bangladesh, Dhaka, Bangladesh

    Imtiaz Hussain

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Taufiq, H.A. (2019). China, India, and Myanmar: Playing Rohingya Roulette?. In: Hussain, I. (eds) South Asia in Global Power Rivalry. Global Political Transitions. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-7240-7_4

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