Statistical Models of Dengue Fever
We use Bayesian data analysis to predict dengue fever outbreaks and quantify the link between outbreaks and meteorological precursors tied to the breeding conditions of vector mosquitos. We use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling to estimate a seasonal Gaussian process modeling infection rate, and aperiodic basis coefficients for the rate of an “outbreak level” of infection beyond seasonal trends across two separate regions. We use this outbreak level to estimate an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model from which we extrapolate a forecast. We show that the resulting model has useful forecasting power in the 6–8 week range. The forecasts are not significantly more accurate with the inclusion of meteorological covariates than with infection trends alone.
KeywordsDengue fever Gaussian process ARMA HMC NOAA
This work was supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories, a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
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