Analyzing Future Water Scarcity in Computable General Equilibrium Models

  • Jing LiuEmail author
  • Tom Hertel
  • Farzad Taheripour
Part of the Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling book series (AAGEM)


Starting with an elaborate global CGE model, we investigate three simplifications: (1) tackling global questions in a national level model; (2) collapsing irrigated and rainfed crop production into a single sector; and (3) removing river basin boundaries within a country. In each case, we compare their performance in predicting the impacts of future irrigation scarcity on international trade, crop output, land use change and welfare, relative to the full scale model. We find that, if the research question has to do with changes in national-scale trade, production and welfare changes, it may be sufficient to ignore the sub-national hydrological boundaries in global economic analysis of water scarcity. However, when decision makers have an interest in the distribution of inputs and outputs within a region, preserving the river basin and sectoral detail in the model brings considerable added value to the analysis.


Model comparison Sectoral and spatial aggregation Water scarcity CGE modeling 


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© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Department of Agricultural EconomicsPurdue UniversityWest LafayetteUSA

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