Scenario Input-Output Analysis on the Diffusion of Fuel Cell Vehicles and Alternative Hydrogen Supply Systems Using MRIOT
According to the 2015 Paris Agreement, Japan is to approach the target of a 26% reduction of its 2013 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. To attain this target, it is necessary to transcend the current fossil energy-based society and shift to a renewable energy-oriented society. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-free fuels must become the predominant source of energy, in addition to the introduction of energy conservation technologies in each sector of manufacturing, transportation, and business and in households. Fuel cells and hydrogen, therefore, are gaining much attention. Our research group in “Knowledge Hub Aichi” is developing a new hydrogen-generating system, which directly decomposes hydrogen from methane (directly decomposition of methane, DDM) and separates carbon as a solid substance without CO2 emissions. We have estimated DDM’s CO2 reduction effects and compared them to those in the current steam reforming of methane (SRM) by applying a scenario input-output analysis with a multiregional input-output table (MRIOT). For a certain amount of hydrogen production, DDM directly emits 14.2% of the CO2 emitted by SRM or 24.5% when considering its indirect effect on the industry. Under the assumption that 800,000 fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) will be diffused in Japan before 2030, the total reduction of CO2 from DDM is estimated as 21.8% more than that from SRM, when FCVs replace conventional vehicles. The vehicle substitution requires a regional concentration of vehicle production in the Aichi Prefecture, but then the production of Aichi would increase with the resulting additional CO2 emission. DDM’s introduction suppresses the increase of CO2 emissions in the industry.
KeywordsScenario input-output analysis Fuel cell vehicles Hydrogen production technology Carbon dioxide emissions Direct decomposition of methane method Steam reforming of methane method Multiregional input-output table
This paper is part of the research results of “Development of the Methane direct decomposition hydrogen production system” of Project E, Priority Research Project II, at Knowledge Hub Aichi, Japan. We are grateful for the financial support.
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