Abstract
In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation models have been used to forecast the expected amount of energy production from photovoltaic panels. Two MC models have been proposed with traditional Monte Carlo method as their backbone. Model-1 combines the locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) with simple Monte Carlo simulation. Model-2 is derived from the first model, and weather forecast data is used as an exogenous input. Also, the effect of weather is considered on traditional MC simulation and compared with Model-2. Using Model-2, the error between generated and predicted data is found to be the least. Results have been generated using Python and are discussed with inference in the manuscript.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsReferences
ENERGY—Statistical Year Book India. http://mospi.nic.in/statistical-year-book-india/2017/185 (2017)
Growth of Electricity Sector in India. http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/others/planning/pdm/growth_2017.pdf
Overview of Renewable Energy Resources of India. http://www.rroij.com/open-access/overview-of-renewable-energy-resourcesof-india.php?aid=41988
Kim, J.G., Kim, D.H., Yoo, W.S., Lee, J.Y., Kim, Y.B.: Daily prediction of solar power generation based on weather forecast information in Korea. IET Renew. Power Gener. 11, 1268–1273 (2017)
Sivaneasan, B., Yu, C.Y., Goh, K.P.: Solar forecasting using ANN with fuzzy logic pre-processing. Energy Procedia 143, 727–732 (2017)
Tüzüntürk, S., Eren Şenaras, A., Sezen, K.: Forecasting Water Demand by Using Monte Carlo Simulation (2015)
Paul, V.K., Basu. C.: A Handbook for Construction Project Planning and Scheduling. Copal Publishing Group (2017)
National Solar Radiation Database. https://nsrdb.nrel.gov/
Calculations of Solar Energy Output. http://www.academia.edu/9005661/CALCULATIONS_OF_SOLAR_ENERGY_OUTPUT
Cleveland, W.S.: Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 829–836 (1979)
Cleveland, W.S.: Locally weighted regression: an approach to regression analysis by local fitting. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 596–610 (1988)
Matuszko, D.: Influence of the extent and genera of cloud cover on solar radiation intensity. Int. J. Climatol. 32, 2403–2414
NOAA’s National Weather Service—Glossary. https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=sky%20condition
Cloud Cover Solar Radiation. https://scool.larc.nasa.gov/lesson_plans/CloudCoverSolarRadiation.pdf
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this paper
Cite this paper
Seth, G., Prithvi, K.A., Paruthi, A., Jain, S., Soni, U. (2019). Prediction of PhotoVoltaic Power Generation Using Monte Carlo Simulation. In: Jain, L., E. Balas, V., Johri, P. (eds) Data and Communication Networks. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 847. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2254-9_25
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2254-9_25
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-13-2253-2
Online ISBN: 978-981-13-2254-9
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)