Model Uncertainties in Long-Term Settlement Prediction of Landfill Waste
Settlement in municipal solid waste (MSW) in landfills and its change with time is a complex process, because of the break-down potential of solids, heterogeneity of the material, variable particle size, and decomposition processes of organics induced by biodegradation. Waste properties, composition, distribution, and load applied vary significantly with depth and location. Various models have been proposed to predict the long-term settlement of landfill. This paper investigates the variation of settlement predictions of a landfill site using 11 different models proposed in the literature. Time required for 50% and 90% (t50 and t90) settlement to finish is also investigated. The coefficient of variation of t50 and t90 can be as high as 0.8 and 0.6 respectively. This investigation demonstrates the necessity of using probability-based method for long term settlement analysis and landfill design.
KeywordsUncertainty Waste settlement Model variation
The first author received scholarship from UNSW for his PhD study. The project also received funding from ACT NoWaste, ACT government, Australia.
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