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Connecting the “One Belt and One Road” Initiative with the Interconnected Himalayan Region—Reflections on the Construction of the China–Nepal–India Economic Corridor

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Annual Report on the Development of the Indian Ocean Region (2017)

Abstract

The “One Belt and One Road” initiative itself, proposed by the Chinese government, nurtures the sub-regional cooperation seeds, like the China–Nepal–India Economic Corridor. Strong earthquake striking Nepalon April 25, 2015 gave rise to such a strong demand. Although the three countries have not yet seriously negotiated the matter concerning the joint establishment of the corridor, the academic community has discussed about it for long. This article emphasizes the importance of the construction of the China–Nepal–India Economic Corridor in meeting six major demands, namely, the demand of filling up the depression development across the trans-Himalayan region, the demand of promoting the interconnectivity between China and South Asia in parallel, the demand of transferring the surplus production capacity in China, the demand of steadily propelling the establishment of a “closer development partnership” between China and India, the demand of connecting the construction of China’s One Belt and One Road initiative by land and by sea, and the demand of trying to break through the geopolitical predicament in South Asia. For China, Nepal and India, the time is ripe for promoting the corridor construction. On the one hand, the political transformation of Nepal is almost complete, providing the political security for the corridor construction. On the other hand, China and India have laid a good foundation for the corridor construction. The corridor construction will vigorously activate the geographical location advantages and cultural resources between two major markets neighboring Nepal, the world’s second most abundant water resources and the unique humanistic tourism resources brought by the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, etc. Nevertheless, the corridor construction will not be built in one step. Instead, many challenges need to be overcome first, such as the interference from the traditional Indian geopolitical thinking, the interference of the Indian market protectionism, and the interference of various non-traditional security threats. In this regard, in the process of promoting the corridor construction, the above three countries, China in particular, shall be patient and composed enough and take into full account all the conditions such as Nepal’s tolerance and acceptance as well as India’s sensitivity and tolerance. In short, the author believes that against the backdrop that the phenomenon of anti-globalization is increasingly obvious, the free trade is stuck in a downturn, and the protectionism and populism is well popular today, China and India, two major Eastern countries, shall have the reason and the obligation to take the initiative to fill in the regional cooperation vacancy formed due to the shrinkage or even exit of the United States, the Europe and other Western countries, thus providing more public goods and resources for the regional development. The author also believes that the construction of the China–Nepal–India Economic can not only greatly promote the overall development of the region, but also fully demonstrate the images of both China and India, as two great, responsible, emerging powers.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    The Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Center) (briefed as “Maoist”) become the largest party in the Constituent Assembly in the election of the Nepal Constituent Assembly in April 2008. The first government of the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal, led by Prachanda, Chairman of the Central Committee of the Maoist, was formally established on August 22, 2008. After he served as the Prime Minister of the new government, Prachanda expressed his wish to develop Nepal into “Asia’s Switzerland.”.

  2. 2.

    Xinhua News Agency, Goa, India, October 15, 2016 (Journalist Hou Lijun): President Xi Jinping met with Nepal’s Prime Minister Prachanda in Goa, India. Xi Jinping pointed out that China and Nepal are close neighbors connected by mountains and rivers. Since the establishment of diplomatic relations for more than half a century, no matter how the international situation changes, the Sino-Nepalese relations have always maintained a healthy and stable development. Attaching great importance to the ties with Nepal, China is willing to work with Nepal to integrate the development strategy, to deepen pragmatic cooperation in various fields and create a community of common destiny for two nations.

  3. 3.

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: Wang Yi: China and India reached consensus on jointly participating in the reconstruction of Nepal and exploring the building of the economic corridor among China, Nepal, and India, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_676812/xgxw_676818/t1276059.shtml, released online on March 5, 2017.

  4. 4.

    According to the results of the 2011 population census in India, Uttar Pradesh had a population of 199 million, West Bengal 0.90 billion, Bihar Province 103 million, North Arkande 10.11 million, Himachal Pradesh 6.85 million, and Sikkim 600,000.

  5. 5.

    During the decade from the FY2006/07 to FY2015/16, the Nepal’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.8%, Economic Survey (Fiscal Year 2015/16), Government of Nepal Ministry of Finance, 2016, p6; another statistic indicated that during 1993-2017, the average annual growth rate of the Nepal’s GDP was 4.10%, during which the highest growth rate was 8.60% in 1993, and the lowest was 0.16% in 2001. Central Bureau of Statistics, Nepal, www.tradingeconomics.com.

  6. 6.

    Nepal’s Prime Minister invited other countries to increase the investment in Nepal, Xinhua News Agency reports, February 20, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2017-02/20/c_1120499053.htm, released online on March 16, 2017.

  7. 7.

    According to the agreement between China and India, the Yadong border trade market will open four days each week, namely from 10:00 am to 6:00 pm from Monday to Thursday. It begins with May 1 and ends at November 30, when the heavy smow seals the mountain pass, every year.

  8. 8.

    Take the Yadong border trade market for example. India has set strict restrictions border trade goods (only limited to people living across the border). “India can export 29 kinds of goods including farm tools, clothing, barley, tea, rice, condiments, oil, bicycles, copper products and tobacco, etc.; China exports 15 kinds of goods, such as goats or sheepskin, raw silk, tails of wild yaks, clay, borax, livestock and salt, etc. The daily trading value of goods for each businessman shall not exceed INR 0.1 million, set by India only. China has not set this restriction.” Please see Satyajit Mohanty, “Nathu La: Bridging the Himalayas”, IPCS Issue brief No. 73, June 2008, 2072999087IPCS-IssueBrief-No73.pdf,http://www.ipcs.org/issue-brief/china/nathu-la-bridging-the-himalayas-73.html.

  9. 9.

    Satyajit Mohanty, “Nathu La: Bridging the Himalayas”, IPCS Issue brief No. 73, June 2008, 2072999087IPCS-IssueBrief-No73.pdf, http://www.ipcs.org/issue-brief/china/nathu-la-bridging-the-himalayas-73.html.

  10. 10.

    The trade value at the Yadong Port lying between China and India is expected to exceed RMB 100 million. Please see the website of the Yadong County, in the Xigaze City, http://www.xzyd.gov.cn/cgjj_3313/201506/t20150612_638143.html, released online on March 16, 2017.

  11. 11.

    According to the statistics of the Department of Commerce of Tibet Autonomous Region, about 90% of Nepal and China’s land trade was completed in the trade market of the Zhangmu Port. On April 25, 2015, Nepal was hit by an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1, which caused the block of the main land traffic (the Sino-Nepalese International Highway) between Tibet and Nepal. Two main ports, namely the Zhangmu Port and the Jialong Port, were seriously damaged, leading to a suspension in terms of land trade and travel between China and Nepal. In 2015, Tibet’s import and export trade accumulated RMB 5.655 billion, down 59.2% year on year. Lhasa customs statistics show that: In 2015, among Tibet’s import and export trade, the exports amount reached RMB 3.36 billion, down 71.9% YoY; the imports amount was RMB 2.03 billion, up 114.4% YoY; the trade surplus was RMB 1.59 billion.

  12. 12.

    Hafiz Wasim Akram, Md. Daoud Ciddikie & Dr. M. Altaf Khan, “INDIA’S TRADE RELATIONSHIP WITH SAFTA COUNTRIES: A REVIEW”, Journal of Indian Research (ISSN: 2320-7000), Vol. 2, No. 1, January–March, 2014, p51.

  13. 13.

    Lu Zhijiang: “India is the Mirror of China”, “China Development Watch”, May 8, 2006.

  14. 14.

    Government of India: Indian Economic Survey 1999–2000, p159.

  15. 15.

    Government of India: Indian Economic Survey 1999–2000, p159.

  16. 16.

    Lu Zhijiang: “India is the Mirror of China”, “China Development Watch”, May 8, 2006.

  17. 17.

    Santanu Choudhury, Romit Guha and Saurabh Chaturvedi, “Blackout Tarnishes India’s Reputation”, The Wall Street Journal, Thursday, August 2, 2012, p3.

  18. 18.

    The “one” in the “SAARC minus one” policy refers to Pakistan.

  19. 19.

    Nepal announced the eight areas of priority investment at the “2017 Investment Summit,” March 2, 2017, Xinhua News Agency.

  20. 20.

    During FY2014/15-2015/16, US$1 was converted into INP 99.5-106.5 rupees, Economic Survey (Fiscal Year 2015/16), Government of Nepal Ministry of Finance, 2016, p274.

  21. 21.

    Economic Survey (Fiscal Year 2015/16), Government of Nepal Ministry of Finance, 2016, pXX.

  22. 22.

    Nepal GDP Annual Growth Rate Forecast 2016-2020,Central Bureau of Statistics, Nepal, www.tradingeconomics.com.

  23. 23.

    Nepal Earthquake’s Economic Toll Expected to Be Massive, The Wall Streets Journal, http://www.wsj.com/articles/nepal-earthquakes-economic-toll-expected-to-be-massive-1430133298, released online on March 16 2017.

  24. 24.

    Source: the content from the writer’s interview with the officials from the National Reconstruction Authority on August 10, 2016.

  25. 25.

    The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China: President Xi Jinping Meets with Nepal’s Prime Minister SharmaOli, http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/web/gjhdq_676201/gj_676203/yz_676205/1206_676812/xgxw_676818/t1349371.shtml, released online on March 16, 2017.

  26. 26.

    In fact, Nepal–India border ports were in a state of complete closure from September 2015 to the end of January 2016. At that time, the national people’s livelihood in Nepal was stuck in a paralysis. As the blockade occurred after the unprecedented earthquake in Nepal, and the situation in the annual grand festivals of Diwali Festival and Dussehra Festival (the importance of these two festivals is equivalent to that of China’s Spring Festival) did not ease, coupled with the winter harassment, the Nepalese people were angry with India. As a result, a super strong consensus to endeavor to reduce the dependence on India was reached among various Nepalese classes.

  27. 27.

    The project will start from Gujarat and Rajasthan, and eventually be extended to the vast northern region from Jammu–Kashmir to the Mizola and Manipur states along the India and Burma border. “Bharat Mala: PM Narendra Modi’s planned Rs. 14,000 crore road from Gujarat to Mizoram”, The Economic Times, New Delhi, 29 April 2015.

  28. 28.

    The Commerce Department of the Tibet Autonomous Region: South Asia road-railway combined transport International Freight Train “Lanzhou” successfully exported the first batch of goods to Nepal, http://www.tdofcom.gov.cn/yw/3193.jhtml, released online on March 16, 2017.

  29. 29.

    China News Network: Tibet Airlines and its partner in Nepal jointly set up “Himalayan Airlines”, http://www.chinanews.com/cj/2014/08-19/6509456.shtml,released online on March 16, 2017.

  30. 30.

    Gmw.cn: Tibet speeds up the border openness, to expand the circle of friends in South Asia, http://news.gmw.cn/newspaper/2016-04/21/content_111920031.htm, released online on March 17, 2017.

  31. 31.

    “PM gives SAARC nations a trade treat,” Hindustan Time, 10 November 2011, http://www.hindustantimes.com/business-news/WorldEconomy/PM-gives-SAARC-nations-a-trade-treat/Article1-767344.aspx.

  32. 32.

    Avtar Singh Bhasin (ed): NepalIndia, NepalChina Relations: Documents, 19472005 June (new Delhi: Geetika Publishers, 2005), pXII.

  33. 33.

    Jayant Prasad, A new template for India–Nepal ties, The Hindu, Aug. 2, 2014, Lead.

  34. 34.

    Abantika Ghosh, Vijaita Singh (24 January 2015). “Census 2011: Muslims record decadal growth of 24.6 pc, Hindus 16.8 pc”. Indian Express, 24 January 2015.

  35. 35.

    Statistical Yearbook of Nepal—2013. Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics. 2013. p. 23.

  36. 36.

    Gu Fangfang, Shi Zhenming, Zheng Yanlong, and Bai Yun: Exploration on the Building of Sino-Nepalese-Indian Cross-Himalayan Railway Channel, published in Tunnel Construction of Issue No. 7, July 2014, p.654.

  37. 37.

    www.tibet.cn: Nepal’s Primer Minister comes to sign big deal in China in order to balance between China and India: http://www.tibet.cn/tibet-rediscovery/summarize/145878792269.shtml, released online on March 17, 2017.

  38. 38.

    “The number of visitors to Everest in Nepal surged 33.6% over the previous year,” 2017-01-10, International News Edition of Lianhe Zaobao.

  39. 39.

    As many as 729,550 tourists visited Nepal in 2016, January 11, 2017, https://thehimalayantimes.com/nepal/as-many-as-729550-tourists-visited-nepal-in-2016/, released online on March 18, 2017.

  40. 40.

    National Interests, a bimonthly in the United States, the issue of September/October (2013), published an article written by Rajang Minion, entitled “Asia’s Imminent Power Transfer”, a political science professor of the New York City University.

  41. 41.

    National Interests, a bimonthly in the United States, the issue of September/October (2013), published an article written by Rajang Minion, entitled “Asia’s Imminent Power Transfer”, a political science professor of the New York City University.

  42. 42.

    See Jandhyala B. G. Tilak, “Higher Education in the Bric Member-Countries: Comparative Patterns and Policies”, Economic & Politics WEEKLY, April 6, 2013, pp. 42–45.

  43. 43.

    “India world’s largest remittance recipient in 2015: World Bank”. The Times of India, Apr 14, 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-is-top-remittance-recipient-of-2015-World-Bank/articleshow/51822766.cms, released online on March 18, 2017.

  44. 44.

    As for the border disputes between India and Nepal, namely Lipu Lekh Pass on the west side of the border of the two countries and Susta in the middle border, they will not interfere significantly with the construction of the corridor among China, Nepal and India. In 2014, Modi, Indian Prime Minister, visited Nepal, promising to solve the problem through a foreign secretary level meeting. Later when Modi visited China, India and China issued a joint statement, unilaterally including the dispute ports between India and Nepal in the list of open pilgrimage routes between India and China in the case of not negotiating with Nepal. All communities expressed their dissatisfactions with the above joint statement. They even thought that China and India together bullied Nepal. In fact, as early as 1954, the Lipu Lekh Pass is one of the six border trade ports in the border trade agreement between China’s Tibet and India. At that time, Nepal did not understand the situation and China was unaware of the dispute, showing that both Nepal and China have been confounded by the Indian side until now. In the future, the construction of the economic corridor among China, Nepal, and India will not be impacted by the border disputes as long as the above two place are avoided.

  45. 45.

    Mandala is the transliteration for Sanskrit (mandarava), or “Jikuo” in Tibetan, which is a Buddhism term with the meaning of “all-embracing and harmony”, always referred to as an altar city where “all the saints and talents gather here and all the merits blend”, also indicating Buddhist architecture, Buddhist painting as well as Buddhist music, assuming wide-spread implications. Mandala originated in the Tantric practices of ancient India, when, in order to prevent the invasion of “devils”, people would build a round or square soil altar where they could conduct Tantric practices. During the practices, they would invite Buddhas in the past, present and future to witness in person, painting their portraits on the altar, thus constituting the basic frame of the altar city later, evolving into various types and classifications of Mandala. As the origin symbolizing universal structure, the altar city is a model and epitome where a diverse Deity and his relatives reside. The application of Mandala thoughts in national relations or diplomatic strategies was derived from the narration in Arthasastra by Kautilya. According to his theory, the relationships between a country and its neighboring countries are like a series of circles in “Mandala”, in each layer of the circles, the closest neighbor of a country is always seen as an enemy, while the second closer circle, i.e., the neighbor of its enemy is taken as a friend, and so on. Strategists and rulers of India in later period created a geostrategic framework with India as the core, based on the structure of Mandala altar city. Whereby India takes its closest neighboring countries, such as Nepal, Bhutan, as well as Sikkim, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Maldives before they were annexed as the first circle, and Tibetan, Afghan, Myanmar etc. as the second circle, with all the above consisting the organic parts for India’s strategic unity. The idea takes geographical distance as a basis for judging friends and enemies, with obvious inclination of geographical determinism and realism. Kautilya proposed a bunch of measures in dealing with the above challenges: peaceful coexistence (when the country is weak), war (actively attack with a superior power), neutral (self protection against attacks form enemies in the middle of being stronger), offensive moves (subdue the enemy without fighting through coercion policies), alliance (seeking for protection of other countries), dual-policy (befriend with one country while fighting another).

  46. 46.

    Jaswant.Singh, Defending India (New Delhi: Macmillan, 1998), p146.

  47. 47.

    “Nepal does not play India or China card: KP Sharma Oli”, the Economic Times, Feb 22. 2016, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/51091915.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst, published online on March 18, 2017.

  48. 48.

    Nepal Signs First-ever Transit Treaty with China, Easing Dependence on India, April 3, 2016, https://tradepolicy.wordpress.com/2016/04/03/nepal-signs-first-ever-transit-treaty-with-china-easing-dependence-on-india/; Sudha Ramachandran, Nepal inks 10 deals with China, cutting dependence on India, Mar. 24, 2016 11:51 AM (UTC + 8) http://www.atimes.com/article/nepal-inks-10-deals-with-china-cutting-dependence-on-india/, published online on March 18, 2017.

  49. 49.

    Rajesh Khanal, “Nepal’s trade dependency on India swells in 2000s”, the Kathmandu Post, Feb. 4, 2014, http://kathmandupost.ekantipur.com/news/2014-02-04/nepals-trade-dependency-on-india-swells-in-2000s.html,published online on March 18, 2017.

  50. 50.

    “FICCI warns against FTA with China”, October 18, 2007, http://www.rediff.com/news/2007/oct/18ficci.htm. Browsed on Mar. 17, 2017.

  51. 51.

    India trade deficit with China increased year by year. In 2005, India enjoyed a trade surplus of $843 million in China, but in 2006, India trade deficit was $4.11 billion; and a deficit of $10 billion in 2007, $11.2 billion in 2008, $16 billion in 2009 The dollar. Approaching $20 billion in 2010.

  52. 52.

    “149 anti-dumping cases against China highest among foreign nations: Govt”, Dec 21, 2011, http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-12-21/news/30542669_1_anti-dumping-measures-dgad-anti-dumping-probes. Browsed on Mar. 27, 2012.

  53. 53.

    Refer to the website of Anti-dumping and Joint Tax Administration of Indian Ministry of Commerce http://www.dgtr.gov.in/anti-dumping-cases.

  54. 54.

    Refer to the reports by WWW, http://world.huanqiu.com/roll/2009-11/634114.html,browsed on Mar. 27, 2012.

  55. 55.

    “RSS to campaign against Chinese goods”, OCTOBER 21, 2011. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/nagpur/RSS-to-campaign-against-Chinese-goods/articleshow/10421908.cms; “Defeat the designs of Chinese dragon against Hindu India”, posted by hinduexistence on March 13, 2011,http://hinduexistence.wordpress.com/2011/03/13/defeat-chinese-designs-against-against-hindu-india/.

  56. 56.

    Between 1977 and 2014, 39,759 non-governmental organizations and 189 international non-governmental organizations completed registration in Nepal. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4995364/, published online on Mar. 18, 2017.

  57. 57.

    “In huge show of strength, lakhs of workers go on strike over ‘anti-labour’ reforms,” AFP, 2 September 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/In-huge-show-of-strength-lakhs-of-workers-go-on-strike-over-anti-labour-reforms/articleshow/48774719.cms. (online time: Nov. 6, 2015).

  58. 58.

    “More Power to India’s States”, The Wall Street Journal, Wed. August 1, 2012, p11.

  59. 59.

    “KPMG: India has to Pump $10 billion in Energy Sector”, Deccan Chronicle, April 2006;Mohan Guruswamy, “Chasing the Dragon”, Longman, 2010, p39.

  60. 60.

    It can be seen by comparing China and India’s economic reform performance. China and India, with different political system, have all made remarkable achievements in economic development in the past 20 years. More importantly, both countries are developing countries, successively implementing economic reform policies in the late 1970s and early 1980s. China first started from the rural reform which is passive, while India from the electronic revolution. China's rural reform has released a large amount of surplus labor and was soon absorbed by the coastal industrialization after Deng Xiaoping’s southern tour in 1992 (absorbed by the second wave of reform and opening up) and caused great development of labor-intensive industries. While in India, the electronic revolution brought about the great development of computer software and other knowledge-intensive industries independent of infrastructure, but the problem was that its employability was limited and could not become the second reform driving force promoted by India's abolition of the “licensing system” in 1991. The second wave of reform made India’s private consortium once again gained great development, but still failed to bring benefits to the great economic development of the broad masses. India entered the vicious circle of “growth without employment”. For example, between 1993 and 2000, India’s GDP grew by 6.5%, but the employment rate increased by only 1%. In 2004 and 2004, India’s GDP grew by 8.43%, but only 2 million new jobs were created, with an average annual growth rate of only 0.8%, “there is growth without employment”. 87% of the manufacturing employees are working in workshops of less than 10 people, employing only 1.5% of the labor force population, the number of IT employees is up to 2.5 million people, less than 0.5% of the population in working age. This has made it difficult for India to enjoy its great potential “demographic dividend” up to now. In view of this, giving full play to India's “demographic dividend” should be included in the construction of the China–Nepal–India corridor. China has plenty of capacity and resources in this aspect.

  61. 61.

    Foreign Ministry of the People’s Republic of China: Xi Jinping’s Speech at the Indian World Affairs Committee (Full Text), http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2014-09/19/c_1112539621.htm, published online on May 10, 2016.

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Hu, S. (2018). Connecting the “One Belt and One Road” Initiative with the Interconnected Himalayan Region—Reflections on the Construction of the China–Nepal–India Economic Corridor. In: Rong, W., Zhu, C. (eds) Annual Report on the Development of the Indian Ocean Region (2017). Research Series on the Chinese Dream and China’s Development Path. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-2080-4_3

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