Abstract
This paper tries to find out multiple structural breaks and their causes for 11 major rice-producing states in India over the period 1970–71 to 2013–14 using the methodology of Bai and Perron. The existences of multiple structural breaks and a strong regional variation regarding the possible time points and the numbers of breaks are evident. The Liberalization policies may have either no or negative effect on growth of rice production. This is because from the results of multiple structural break analyses, it is evident that for five states namely AP, BI, HA, KA and OR the rate of growth of rice production has been decreased just after the introduction of liberalization policies or in the first half of the 90’s decade. Also the introduction of the New Agricultural Policy, 2000, may affect the rice production because eight among the ten major rice producing states have one break in the first decade of this century, out of which five states namely AP, AS, BI, OR and WB have negative effect on growth. For the states like AP, BI and OR, the rate of growth of rice production has decreased both after the introduction of liberalization policies and also after the introduction of the New Agricultural Policy, 2000. Thus, the growth of rice production may mainly be affected by state-specific agricultural policies and agricultural policies adopted by the Government of India or due to the natural calamities.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66, 47–78.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003a). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1–22.
Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003b). Critical values for multiple structural change tests. Econometrics Journal, 6, 72–78.
Banerjee, A., Gertler, P., & Ghatak, M. (2002). Empowerment and efficiency: Tenancy reform in West Bengal. Journal of Political Economy, 110(2), 239–280.
Bardhan, P., & Mookherjee, D. (2007). Land reform and farm productivity in West Bengal. Stanford Center for International Development.
Bardhan, P, & Mookherjee, D. (2008). Productivity effects of land reform: A study of disaggregated farm data in West Bengal, India, 2008.
Bhalla, G.S., & Singh, G. (1997, March 29). Recent development in Indian agriculture: A state level analysis. Economic and Political Weekly, 13.
Boyce, Jk. (1987). Agrarian impasse in Bengal : Institutional constraints to technological change. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. Basic statistics relating to the Indian Economy (vol. 2), States, 1985–87 and 1993–94.
Dandekar, V. M. (1980). Introduction. Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, 35(2).
Das, P. S. (1978, October-14). Growth and instability in crop output in Eastern India. Economic and Political Weekly, 13(41).
Dev, S. M. (1987, September 26). Growth and instability in food grains production: An inter state analysis. Economic and Political weekly, 22(39).
Dicky, D. A. (1976). Estimation and hypothesis testing in nonstationary time series. Unpublished Doctoral Dissertation. Ames, IA: Iowa State University.
Dicky, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of Amarican Statistical Association, 74, 427–431.
Dicky, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057–1072.
Ghosh, A., & Pal, D. (2007, March). Growth of food grains production: An interdistrict comparison of West Bengal. Artha Beekashan, 15(4), 216–233.
Government of West Bengal. (1983). Economic Review, pp. 13–14.
Jha, T. N., & Viswanathan, K. U. (1999). Problems and prospects of agricultural development in Bihar. Occasional Paper-10, National Bank for Agricultural and Rural Development, Mumbai.
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C. B., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root. Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159–178.
MacKinnon, J. G. (1990). Critical values for Co-integration Tests. UC San Diego Discussion Paper, 90-4.
MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 601–618.
Mukhopadhyay, D, & Sarkar, N (2001). Has there been acceleration in the growth of agriculture in West Bengal?: A fresh look using modern time series technique. Sankhya, 63 Series B, Pt1, 89–107.
Narain, D. (1977, January–March). Growth and productivity in Indian agriculture. Indian Journal Of Agricultural Economics, 32(1).
Nelson, C. R., & Plosser, C. I. (1982). Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: Some evidence and implications. Journal of Monetary Economics, 10(2), 139–62.
Pal, D., & Ghose, A. (2012, March). On the change in growth process of Indian agricultural sector: Evidence from structural break unit root test. Artha Beekshan, 20(4). ISSN: 0972-1185.
Perrion, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57, 1361–401.
Perrion, P(1998, January). Estimation and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for unit roots in time series regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
Ray, S. K. (1983, June). Growth and instability of Indian agriculture. Delhi: Institute of Economic Growth.
RBI. (2004, December 23). Report on currency and finance 2003–04.
Reddy, V. N. (1978). Statistical findings of growth curves with illustration from data on indian economy. IIM.
Rudra, A. (1982). Indian agricultural economics: Myths and realities. New Delhi: Allied Publishers.
Saha, A, & Swaminathan, M. (1994, March 26). Agricultural growth in West Bengal in the 1980’s: A disaggregation by districts and crops. Economic and Political Weekly, 29(13), A2–A11.
Sawant, S. D. (1983). Investigation of the hypothesis of deceleration in Indian agriculture. Indian Journal Of Agricultural Economics, 38(4) (October–December).
Sawant, S. D., & Achuthan, C. V. (1995, March 25). Agricultural growth across crops and region: Emerging trends and patterns. Economic and Political Weekly, 30(20).
Sen, S. R. (1967, June). Growth and instability in Indian agriculture. Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics.
Sengupta, M., & Ghose (Nee Dhar), & Pal, D. (2009). An interstate comparison of the impact of liberalization on the output of Indian agricultural sector: A fresh look using modern time series approach. In Presented in 45th Annual Conference organized by the Econometrics Society.
Srinivasan, T. N. (1979, August 28). Trends in agriculture in India, 1949–50 to 1977–78. Economic and Political Weekly, 14 (30-32 Special Number).
Vaidyanathan, A. (1980, April). On analyzing agricultural growth. Journal of the Indian Society of Agricultural Statistics, 32(1).
Department of Agriculture, Government of Odisha, http://www.agriodisha.nic.in/.
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251–287.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Appendix
Appendix
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2019 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Pal, D., Chakraborty, C., Ghose, A. (2019). Is There Any Decline in Growth of Rice Production in Indian Agriculture in Post-liberalization Era: Evidence from Multiple Structural Breaks Analysis. In: Chakrabarti, G., Sen, C. (eds) The Globalization Conundrum—Dark Clouds behind the Silver Lining. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1727-9_16
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1727-9_16
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore
Print ISBN: 978-981-13-1726-2
Online ISBN: 978-981-13-1727-9
eBook Packages: Business and ManagementBusiness and Management (R0)