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Monetary Policy and Private Investment in India: The MIDAS Experience

  • Debasis RoojEmail author
  • Reshmi Sengupta
Chapter

Abstract

Recent evidence shows that Indian economy is experiencing a slowdown in private investment. Even after a significant decline in interest rates over the last two years, credit growth, particularly industrial credit growth, and private investment have remained sluggish. We examine the link between monetary policy and private investment in India by applying mixed-frequency vector autoregressive (MIDAS-VAR) method to monthly yield on 91-day T-bill, a proxy for monetary policy tool on quarterly bank loans, private investment, and gross domestic product. Mixed-frequency regression analysis includes variables of different frequencies into the analysis without the need for aggregating the higher-frequency variables into lower-frequency ones. Converting higher-frequency variables into lower-frequency variables often referred to as temporal aggregation is known to have an adverse impact on statistical inferences. MIDAS performs better in recovering the causal relationships between variables released at different frequencies when compared to the conventional common low-frequency approach by allowing having heterogeneous impacts on a low-frequency variable within each low-frequency time period. The mixed-frequency analysis reveals an interesting mix of results linking the monetary policy to the private investment in India. A comparative analysis with single-frequency (quarterly) analysis underestimates the influence of monetary policy. The mixed-frequency approach, therefore, yields richer economic insights into India’s sluggish investment than the classical single-frequency approach.

Keywords

Monetary policy Mixed-frequency data analysis Private investment Indian economy 

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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.FLAME UniversityPuneIndia

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