Abstract
Due to the erratic fluctuation of holiday traffic, it is hard to make accurate prediction for holiday traffic flow. This paper introduces the fluctuation coefficient method, which is widely used in passenger flow management, to holiday traffic flow prediction. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of traffic flow, we divid holiday traffic flow into regular and fluctuant parts. The regular flow is predicted by Long Short-term Memory Model, and the fluctuant flow is forecasted by fluctuation coefficient method. This method can overcome the shortage of historical data, and the effectiveness of this method is verified by the experiments.
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Acknowledgements
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Department of Sichuan Province (Grant no. 2017HH0075, 2016GZ0075, 2017JZ0031), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (ZYGX2015J060).
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Lu, G., Li, J., Chen, J., Chen, A., Gu, J., Pang, R. (2019). A Long-Term Highway Traffic Flow Prediction Method for Holiday. In: Park, J., Loia, V., Choo, KK., Yi, G. (eds) Advanced Multimedia and Ubiquitous Engineering. MUE FutureTech 2018 2018. Lecture Notes in Electrical Engineering, vol 518. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1328-8_19
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-1328-8_19
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