Abstract
When employing flood forecasting in practical applications, such as reservoir operation, one important issue is to deal with the uncertainty involved in forecasting. Traditional studies dealing with the uncertainty of flood forecasting have been limited when describing the evolution of forecast uncertainty. This chapter introduces a copula-based uncertainty evolution (CUE) model to evaluate the uncertainty of flood forecasts. The generated forecast uncertainty series fit the observed series well in terms of observed mean, standard deviation and skewness. Daily flow with forecast uncertainty are simulated and used to determine the effect of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Results show that using the forecasted inflow coupled with the pre-release module for reservoir operation in flood seasons will not increase flood risks.
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Chen, L., Guo, S. (2019). Copula-Based Uncertainty Evolution Model for Flood Forecasting. In: Copulas and Its Application in Hydrology and Water Resources. Springer Water. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_9
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