Abstract
Droughts produce a complex set of negative economic, environmental, and social impacts from regional to national scales. Drought impacts can be quantified by using drought index time series, such as the monthly Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series. Drought characteristics, namely drought duration, severity, time interval and the minimum SPI values, are determined in this chapter. Five hundred years of daily rainfall data are simulated for evaluating drought characteristics. Appropriate distributions are selected for modeling drought durations, time intervals, drought severity and the minimum SPI values in different drought states. The drought episodes are quantified using multivariate copula methods. Several copulas selected from the Archimedean and meta-elliptical families are applied to constructing four-dimensional joint distributions. The dependence structure in each drought state is investigated, and drought probabilities and return periods are calculated and analyzed based on a four-dimensional copula, where the upper Han River Basin, China is used as a case study.
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Chen, L., Guo, S. (2019). Drought Analysis Using Copulas. In: Copulas and Its Application in Hydrology and Water Resources. Springer Water. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_5
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