Abstract
This conclusion uses the research from the preceding chapters to examine future prospects for the Asia-Pacific order. Without question, changes are myriad and predictions must be tentative. Yet one of the most important influences shaping future options is the rise of China, militarily, economically, and institutionally. To assume that China’s rise will be determinative of the future order is, however, a mistake. Numerous other states, not least being Japan, enjoy active agency in structuring Asia’s future. Furthermore, state action, again not least in the case of Japan, will be deeply reflective of changes in the domestic politics of key states.
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Notes
- 1.
See inter alia, Pempel, Chap. 2 in this volume. See also T.J. Pempel (ed.) The Economic-Security Nexus in Northeast Asia (Abingdon: Routledge, 2013); Erik Gartske, Quan Li and Charles Boehmer. “Investing in the Peace: Economic Interdependence and International Conflict,” International Organization 55 (2) 2001: 391–438; William Overholt, Asia, America, and the Transformation of Geopolitics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008); Goldstein, Avery and Edward Mansfield eds., The Nexus of Economics, Security and International Relations in East Asia (Stanford: Stanford University Press 2012).
- 2.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “Ripe for rivalry: prospects for peace in a multipolar Asia.” International security 18.3 (1993): 5–33.
- 3.
For example, Avery Goldstein, “First Things First: The Pressing Danger of Crisis Instability in U.S.-China Relations,” International Security, Vol. 37, No. 4 (Spring 2013), pp. 49–89; John J. Mearsheimer, “The gathering storm: China’s challenge to US power in Asia.” The Chinese Journal of International Politics 3.4 (2010): 381–396; Aaron L. Friedberg, “The future of US-China relations: Is conflict inevitable?” International security 30.2 (2005): 7–45, Adam P., Liff, and G. John Ikenberry. “Racing toward tragedy?: China’s rise, military competition in the Asia Pacific, and the Security Dilemma.” International Security 39.2 (2014): 52–91; Graham Allison, Destined for War: can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap (New York: Houghton Mifflin, 2017), inter alia. For contradictory views see T.J. Pempel, “Thucydides [Clap]trap: U.S.-China Relations in a Changing Asia-Pacific.” Global Asia 10 (4), 2015: 88–93; David C. Kang. China rising: peace, power, and order in East Asia. Columbia University Press, 2008.
- 4.
On this issue, see Muthiah Alagappa, “The Study of International Order: An Analytic Framework,” in Muthiah Alagappa (ed.) Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford, Stanford University Press, 2003): 33–69.
- 5.
Douglas McCray, “Japan’s Gross National Cool,” Foreign Policy, November 11, 2009. Michal Daliot-Bul. “Japan brand strategy: The taming of ‘Cool Japan’ and the challenges of cultural planning in a postmodern age.” Social science Japan journal 12.2 (2009): 247–266; Ian Condry, “Anime creativity: Characters and premises in the quest for cool Japan.” Theory, Culture & Society 26.2–3 (2009): 139–163.
- 6.
Richard J. Samuels, Securing Japan: Tokyo’s grand strategy and the future of East Asia. Cornell University Press, 2008, especially Chapter 4. Kenneth Pyle, Japan rising: The resurgence of Japanese power and purpose. New York: Public Affairs, 2009, especially Chapter 8.
- 7.
John Pomfret, “U.S. Takes a Tougher Tone with China,” Washington Post, July 30, 2010.
- 8.
Zhiqun Zhu, “The East Asian Dispute the World Isn’t Talking About,” The Hill, July 14, 2017, at http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international-affairs/342007-the-east-asian-dispute-the-world-isnt-talking-about Accessed July 14, 2017.
- 9.
On this point, see Hassner, Ron E. “‘To halve and to hold’: Conflicts over sacred space and the problem of indivisibility.” Security Studies 12.4 (2003): 1–33.
- 10.
Asan Institute for Policy Studies, South Koreans and their Neighbors, 2015 available at http://en.asaninst.org/contents/south-koreans-and-their-neighbors/
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Friedberg, Aaron L. “Ripe for rivalry: Prospects for peace in a multipolar Asia.” International security 18.3 (1993): 5–33.
Friedberg, Aaron L. “The future of US-China relations: Is conflict inevitable?” International security 30.2 (2005): 7–45.
Gartske, Erik, Quan Li and Charles Boehmer. “Investing in the peace: Economic interdependence and international conflict.” International Organization 55.2 (2001): 391–438.
Goldstein, Avery. “First things first: The pressing danger of crisis instability in U.S.-China relations.” International Security 37.4 (Spring 2013): 49–89.
Goldstein, Avery and Edward Mansfield (eds.). The Nexus of Economics, Security and International Relations in East Asia. Stanford: Stanford University Press, 2012.
Hassner, Ron E. ““To halve and to hold”: Conflicts over sacred space and the problem of indivisibility.” Security Studies 12.4 (2003): 1–33.
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Pomfret, John. “U.S. Takes a Tougher Tone with China,” Washington Post, July 30, 2010.
Pyle, Kenneth. Japan rising: The Resurgence of Japanese Power and Purpose. New York: Public Affairs, 2009.
Samuels, Richard J. Securing Japan: Tokyo’s Grand Strategy and the Future of East Asia. Cornell University Press, 2008.
Zhu Zhiqun, “The East Asian Dispute the World Isn’t Talking About,” The Hill, July 14, 2017, at http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international-affairs/342007-the-east-asian-dispute-the-world-isnt-talking-about
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Pempel, T.J. (2019). Conclusion. In: Sohn, Y., Pempel, T.J. (eds) Japan and Asia’s Contested Order. Asia Today. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0256-5_15
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