Abstract
Catching up with and surpassing America has been the “China’s dream” and “Great Power’s dream” proposed by Mao Zedong. In 1956, He for the first time proposed the assumption in the preliminary conference of the 8th National Congress of CPC to catch up and surpass America in fifty (by 2006) or sixty (by 2016) years. This is the “great strategy” of China. Among the numerous powers in present world, the only country which is qualified and capable is China.
The contents in this chapter were published on Jan. 5, 2011 in Outlook Weekly titled How Will China Catch up With and Surpass America (data table is excluded). The author updated data, and supplemented viewpoints on December 2012.
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Notes
- 1.
Paul Kennedy believes since the 18th century, Russia has been keeping the status as European power. Although its economic strength is not the most powerful, its economic aggregate has been keeping in the forefront of the Europe. Before 1850, the economic aggregate has had been the most powerful in the Europe. In the industrial revolution later, Russia took the opportunity and improved its manufacturing industry and economic aggregate. However, the economic competitiveness of Russia dropped behind than other industrialized countries. On the other hand, the military power has been the trouble of European countries. The adverse tendency of economy failed to transfer to obvious military weakness, referring to Paul Kennedy: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, pp. 215–217, China Economic Press, Beijing, 1989.
- 2.
Angus Maddson, Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD.
- 3.
2006 World Iron & Steel Output Analysis, http://zhidao.baidu.com/question/28546796.html.
- 4.
Fully Build the Moderately Prosperous Society, and Open the New Situation with Socialist Cause with Chinese Characteristics—Report to the 16th National Congress of CPC, Nov. 18, 2002.
- 5.
World Bank: World Development Indicators 2011.
- 6.
See footnote 5.
- 7.
People’s Daily, Oct. 9, 2010.
- 8.
In 2008, the total number of Chinese R&D personnel has passed America and become the world first, accounting for 19.1% of total R&D personnel in the world, more than total R&D personnel in America (1.91 million/year, accounting for 18.6% of world total number). Development Planning Department of Ministry of Science and Technology: Science and Technology Statistics Report, Vol. 21 (total Vol. 487), Dec. 17, 2010.
- 9.
National Science Foundation (NSF), Science and Engineering Indicators 2010.
- 10.
One of the World Research Reports published by Thomson Reuters Group, December 2009.
- 11.
Thomson Reuters: Patented in China: The Present and Future State of Innovation in China. By Eve Y. Zhou, Ph.D., and Bob Stembridge.
- 12.
On April 26, 2009, Li Yong, the vice minister of Ministry of Finance in the World Bank appealed the developed countries to show their political wills, greatly improve the status of developing countries and transitional countries in the decision making process of the World Bank, and accelerate the speak right and representative reform of the World Bank. On April 27, 2010, the spring session of the World Bank Development Committee passed the decision in Washington, USA to rise the voting right of China in the World Bank to 4.42% from 2.77%, to the third place from the sixth place. Zhou Xiaochuan, the President of the People’s Bank of China on April 24, 2010 in Washington urged IMF to accelerate reform and increase the quota and right of speak of emerging markets and developing countries. On Oct. 23, 2010, G20 finance ministers and central bankers meeting reached consensus on the share reform problem of IMF. The meeting agreed to transfer over 6% share to the countries with inadequate representatives including emerging countries, while the share of China would rise to the third place from the sixth place.
- 13.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, p. 62, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011. The conclusion is basically the same with foreign research. For instance, the World Largest Economy in Economist, the British magazine (Dec. 16, 2010) predicts that in the next ten years, the average annual economic growth in China and America would be 7.75 and 2.5% respectively, while the inflation rate would be 4 and 1.5% respectively. The annual appreciation of RMB will be 3%, and China will become the largest economy by replacing America in 2019.
- 14.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, p. 62, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011.
- 15.
Hu Jintao: Hold High the Great Banner of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, and Strive for New Victory of Comprehensively Building the Moderately Prosperous Society—Report to the 17th National Congress of CPC, Oct. 15, 2007.
- 16.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, p. 65, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011.
- 17.
According to the information of National Development and Reform Commission, in 2011, the total output value of scale and above high-tech manufacturing industry has reached 9.2 trillion Yuan, doubled than that in 2006, and the industrial scale ranked the second place in the world. The output of main high-tech products such as mobile phones, color TV, computers and several drugs ranked the world first. Chinese Radio Network, April 6, 2012.
- 18.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, pp. 34–35, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011.
- 19.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, p. 37, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011.
- 20.
The “two horizontal lines and three vertical lines” refer to the urbanization pattern with Eurasia Land Bridge channel, and channel along Yangtze River as horizontal axis, and coastal railway (Dalian–Zhanjiang), Beijing–Harbin & Beijing–Guangzhou railways, Hohhot–Baotou–Erdos–Kunming railway as vertical axis, with national optimal development and key developed urbanization areas as support and with other urbanization areas along the axis as important constitution. Outline of the Twelfth Five-year Plan of the People’s Republic of China for National Economy and Social Development, March, 2011.
- 21.
Hu Angang: New Change of Chinese Population Condition from the 6th Demographic Census Data, May 30, 2011, National Reports, Vol. 24, 2011.
- 22.
Hu Angang, Yan Yilong, Weixing, 2030 China: Moving towards Common Prosperity, p. 39, China Renmin University Press, Beijing, 2011.
- 23.
Thomson Reuters: Patented in China: The Present and Future State of Innovation in China. By Eve Y. Zhou, Ph.D., and Bob Stembridge.
- 24.
One of the World Research Reports published by Thomson Reuters Group, December 2009. According to the latest data provided by Science and Technology Information Institute of China, the Chinese SCI papers issued in 2011 are 40% of those in America. Guangming Daily, Dec. 8, 2012
- 25.
In view of quality of scientific papers, during 1994–2004, the citation frequency of Chinese international scientific papers ranked the 18th in the world, while rose to 6th place during 2002–2012. Guangming Daily, Dec. 8, 2012.
- 26.
Hu Angang: China Accelerates Moving Toward World Innovation Country, Dec. 16, 2010.
- 27.
Jiang Zeming: Fully Build the Moderately Prosperous Society, and Open the New Situation with Socialist Cause with Chinese Characteristics—Report to the 16th National Congress of CPC, Nov. 18, 2002
- 28.
On Dec. 10, 2012, the report titled Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds published by the National Intelligence Council acknowledges that the economy of China will surpass that in America. The unipolar pattern that America dominates the world will be terminated, and the western rise since the industrial revolution will be reversed. However the report predicts that by 2030 the economy of China will surpass America. Apparently, it repeats the former mistake: in 2004, the 2020: Mapping the Global Future predicted that China would become the world second economy by 2025. Except their limited professional level, they always over estimate themselves while excessively underestimate China.
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Hu, A. (2018). China’s Dream: Number One in the World. In: China's Road and China's Dream. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7422-6_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-7422-6_5
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