Shift in Water Thinking Crucial for Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future

Abstract

With large development optimism and seen as rich in water resources, Africa is—except for the humid equatorial area—an arid continent, dominated by vast savannas , which require skilful manoeuvring between unreliable rain, very thirsty atmosphere, sharpening droughts and low runoff generation. With a four-folding population and six-folding water demand in just 70 years, the pressure on the water resources is rapidly increasing and already approaching basin closure level in several regions. Since the blue water is concentrated to transnational river corridors , food production is 95% rainfed, i.e. depending on green water in the soil; subsistence farmers’ yields remain low (some 1 ton/ha), and hunger is widespread. An African green revolution is slowly developing as a water harvesting supported agriculture, foreseen to allow even three-folded crop yields. Many countries cannot expect long-term food self-reliance, making national economic planning essential to secure an industrial development for generating necessary foreign currency. Africa’s future is closely linked to its demographic changes, demanding due attention: both towards reducing extreme fertility; and to adaptation to the rapid expansion of middle-age population strata in response to growing life expectancy. Currently, two blindnesses are blocking the road to a sustainable future: city planners’ lack of concern for megacities raw water supply; and the United Nations’ (UN’s) Sustainable Development Goal’s (SDG’s) total unawareness of green water’s crucial role for hunger alleviation. Foreseeable water shortages will demand water-security oriented policies, based on blue water for urban, industrial and energy water supply; green water for food production; and widespread leap-frogging and water decoupling for manoeuvring water supply.