Meteorological Conditions and Malaria Cases—Study in the Context of Meghalaya
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Climatic conditions play a crucial role in the transmission of malaria parasites. The aim of this study was to determine the association between meteorological conditions and cases of malaria and understand the district-wise prevalence of malaria in Meghalaya. The monthly total malaria cases and the monthly meteorological data (temperature and rainfall) were collected for the years 2011–2013. Multiple linear regressions were used to test the association between the Malaria Incidence Rate (MIR) and the monthly average temperature and monthly rainfall. All the data were entered and analyzed using the STATA 12 software. To study the prevalence of malaria in the different districts of Meghalaya, we calculated the District Malaria Prevalence Rate (DMPR) for all the districts and compared the data. The results from the data demonstrate that average temperature has a significant positive association (coeff. 0.2, p < 0.01), whereas rainfall indicates a significantly negative association with the incidence rate of malaria cases in Meghalaya, however, there is a relatively small negative effect that rainfall contributes to the rise in malaria cases (coeff. -0.0006, p < 0.01). This study shows that temperature plays a major role in the rise in the number of malaria cases in the state of Meghalaya, whereas rainfall shows a negative effect in increasing the malaria cases. The study also shows that there is a regional variation in the prevalence of malaria cases in Meghalaya.
KeywordsMalaria incidence rate District malaria prevalence rate Meteorological conditions Multiple linear regressions Meghalaya
The authors are very thankful to the administrative personal of the Department of Health Services (Malaria) and Directorate of Agriculture, Meghalaya for providing the information on monthly malaria cases and monthly temperature, rainfall for the study.
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