Water Availability Under Changing Climate Scenario in Ur River Basin

Abstract

The Bundelkhand region in Central India is facing several environmental issues since the last decade including recurrent droughts, dominant land use changes due to many influencing factors including over exploitation of the natural resources and its degradation, climatic variability and decreased agricultural productivity. The agriculture of the region is mostly rain-fed which has now become a non-lucrative livelihood option for the local population due to the vagaries of the climate and its variability. The threat of climate change which now seems to be real is likely to aggravate the already precarious scenario, which therefore calls for a detailed investigation into the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the region. The Ur river basin has been selected as a pilot basin in Bundelkhand for the development of a decision support system (DSS) integrating climate change, hydrology and livelihood. An attempt has been made to study the impact of climate change by forcing hypothetical climate scenarios on a conceptual water balance model setup for the watershed. The analysis reveals that a 10% reduction in precipitation results in more than 40% reduction in surface runoff whereas a 1 °C increase in temperature results in 6% reduction in surface runoff. A 1 °C rise in temperature coupled with a 10% reduction in rainfall leads to a further 50% reduction in surface runoff whereas a 2 °C rise in temperature coupled with a 10% reduction in rainfall leads to reduction in surface runoff by 59%. This analysis is being used in the development of a DSS for making effective policy recommendations to assist the decision makers and stakeholders in selecting appropriate water management practices on a sustainable basis.