Abstract
How will “population decline” change the shape of the “regions?” We examine how a declining population makes maintaining essential infrastructure increasingly difficult.
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Notes
- 1.
MLIT 2014.
- 2.
IPSS 2013b.
- 3.
Made own projection beyond 2040 by extrapolation using the same assumptions, analyzed by Igarashi, Chikako, President, HIT (IPSS 2013b).
- 4.
MIC 2009.
- 5.
MHLW (2014).
- 6.
- 7.
AIRIA 2015.
- 8.
Analysis using 2040 Micro Population Data and 2010 Phone Directory DB Telepoints with Coordinates (provided by the University of Tokyo, CSIS, hereinafter referred to as “digital phone directory”).
- 9.
According to the digital phone directory.
- 10.
[Method of analysis] Micro population data uses mesh data to allocate the population at a building level using 2040 population projections and map information, the population estimates being performed by the Hokkaido Intellect Tank (HIT) and the map information data analysis by the University of Tokyo’s Center for Spatial Information Science (CSIS). Figure 3.13 is a flow chart on how the data was created. It should also be noted that because of the difficulty in predicting building distribution in 2040, it was assumed that the distribution and usage of buildings in 2010 would pertain (NB: The survey period of house mapping was 2008 to 2009).
Fig. 3.13 
Flow chart of the method of analysis
(*1) Residential map building polygons carry attribute information, such as office, residential, shared building.
(*2) Buildings for settled population distribution are extracted. They are divided into residential, shared building or other. If they are none of these, they become candidate allocation destinations for businesses.
(*3) The total floor area of a building is determined by its floor space and the number of floors, with settled population allocated thereto.
(Note) The above technique is an application of part of the non-aggregate reduction and allocation method for existing demographics.
- 11.
In fact, a detailed trading area for each store has been set and in many cases, even in small municipalities, just because you are out of the 5-kilometer radius does not necessarily mean you are outside the trading area.
- 12.
Estimated from the microlevel population projection data produced by the CSIS, University of Tokyo, by combining the 2010 microlevel population data produced by Akiyama Yuki, assistant professor at CSIS, University of Tokyo, and the 500 m mesh aggregated population projection data (2010–2040) produced by HIT; general incorporated association and the 2010 Digital Phonebook (number of supermarket stores).
- 13.
JFA 2015.
- 14.
Estimated data produced in combination from CSIS, University of Tokyo, HIT and 2010 Digital Phonebook.
- 15.
ANRE 2014.
- 16.
MIC 2008.
- 17.
“Integrated community care” had existed as a concept since the bottom half of the 1970s. The system itself came under discussions in the Nursing Care Insurance Subcommittee of the Social Security Council in June 2010, and an aspirational provision was added to the law in 2011.
- 18.
Since integration of public primary and junior schools was announced in September 27, 1973 by Minister of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the concept was passed onto and reflected in the new announcement in 2015 (MEXT 2015).
- 19.
More information on Akita International University can be found on their website: http://web.aiu.ac.jp/undergraduate
- 20.
More information on Hokkaido Mikasa High school can be found in their website: http://www.city.mikasa.hokkaido.jp/highschool/
- 21.
Otoineppu 2015.
- 22.
MLIT n.d.
- 23.
Kinki District Transport Bureau 2004.
- 24.
MLIT 2007.
- 25.
Tobetsu n.d.
- 26.
MLIT 2012.
- 27.
IPSS 2013a.
- 28.
IPSS 2013a.
- 29.
IPSS 2011.
- 30.
Cabinet Office 2010.
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Chikako, I., Yuki, A., Kenichi, K. (2018). A Collapse in Regional Infrastructure. In: Funabashi, Y. (eds) Japan’s Population Implosion. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4983-5_3
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