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A System Dynamics Approach to Simulate the Restoration Plans for Urmia Lake, Iran

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Optimization and Dynamics with Their Applications

Abstract

Increasing water demand is threatening many hydro-environmental systems, particularly lakes in arid regions. The goal of this research is to assess restoration plans for a drying saline lake, Urmia Lake, in Iran. In order to include interactions of different lake sub-systems, effectiveness of the plans, as a challenging question for decision makers, is studied by a system dynamics model. The plans that are studied and modeled are increasing irrigation efficiency, decreasing irrigated land area, cloud seeding, inter-basin water transfer projects, and using refined wastewater. Here, it is found that increasing irrigation efficiency by 4% annually and controlling irrigated lands would have around 60% effect in revitalizing the lake to its ecological level, among those considered restoration plans. By linking potential policies to their outcomes, this modeling effort is a step toward supporting the consensus to restore the lake.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are also thankful for comments and supports of Shafiqul Islam (Tufts University), James Wescoat (MIT), John Ikeda (World Bank), Seyed Mahdi Hashemian (MIT), Terrence Smith (Tufts University), Jory Hecht (Tufts University), Margaret Garcia (Tufts University) and Mohammad Jahandar (University of Tabriz). Some parts of the earlier version of manuscript is presented at the 33rd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA, July 19–July 23, 2015, and here the effort of conference organizers are appreciated. The first author received a scholarship from the University of Tabriz to work as an affiliate researcher at the Tufts University and MIT.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, 51666, Tabriz, Iran

    Mahdi Zarghami & Mohammad AmirRahmani

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  1. Mahdi Zarghami
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  2. Mohammad AmirRahmani
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Correspondence to Mahdi Zarghami .

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  1. Department of Economics, Chuo University, Hachioji, Tokyo, Japan

    Akio Matsumoto

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Zarghami, M., AmirRahmani, M. (2017). A System Dynamics Approach to Simulate the Restoration Plans for Urmia Lake, Iran. In: Matsumoto, A. (eds) Optimization and Dynamics with Their Applications. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-4214-0_15

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