Skip to main content

Prediction of Market Movement of Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Using Sentiment Analysis

  • Conference paper
  • First Online:
Book cover Advances in Computer and Computational Sciences

Part of the book series: Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing ((AISC,volume 554))

Abstract

Prediction of stock movements and share market has always remained an area of great curiosity and concern for investors. It has already been established that the movement of market shares a big correlation with the sentiments about it. In this paper, we have applied sentiments analysis techniques and machine learning principles to foretell the stock market trends of three major commodities, Gold, Silver and Crude oil. We have used the SentiWordNet library to quantify the emotions expressed in the text. Further neural network has been trained over the calculated readings. Thereafter, the trained neural network is used to forecast the future values. The efficacy of the proposed model is measured on the basis of mean absolute percentage error. The results clearly reflect that there in fact lies a strong correlation between public mood and stock market variations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 169.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 219.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  1. R. J. Dolan, “Emotion, cognition, and behavior,” Science, vol. 298, no. 5596, pp. 1191–1194, 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  2. E. F. Fama, “The behavior of stock-market prices,” The journal of Business, vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 34–105, 1965.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. P. H. Cootner, “The random character of stock market prices,” 1964.

    Google Scholar 

  4. A. Pak and P. Paroubek, “Twitter as a corpus for sentiment analysis and opinion mining.,” in LREc, vol. 10, pp. 1320–1326, 2010.

    Google Scholar 

  5. H. Mao, S. Counts, and J. Bollen, “Predicting financial markets: Comparing survey, news, twitter and search engine data,” arXiv preprint arXiv:1112.1051, 2011.

  6. J. Bollen, H. Mao, and A. Pepe, “Modeling public mood and emotion: Twitter sentiment and socio-economic phenomena.,” ICWSM, vol. 11, pp. 450–453, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  7. C. Whitelaw, N. Garg, and S. Argamon, “Using appraisal groups for sentiment analysis,” in Proceedings of the 14th ACM international conference on Information and knowledge management, pp. 625–631, ACM, 2005.

    Google Scholar 

  8. B. Pang and L. Lee, “A sentimental education: Sentiment analysis using subjectivity summarization based on minimum cuts,” in Proceedings of the 42nd annual meeting on Association for Computational Linguistics, p. 271, Association for Computational Linguistics, 2004.

    Google Scholar 

  9. N. Godbole, M. Srinivasaiah, and S. Skiena, “Large-scale sentiment analysis for news and blogs.,” ICWSM, vol. 7, no. 21, pp. 219–222, 2007.

    Google Scholar 

  10. E. Kouloumpis, T. Wilson, and J. D. Moore, “Twitter sentiment analysis: The good the bad and the omg!,” Icwsm, vol. 11, pp. 538–541, 2011.

    Google Scholar 

  11. P. Nakov, Z. Kozareva, A. Ritter, S. Rosenthal, V. Stoyanov, and T. Wilson, “Semeval-2013 task 2: Sentiment analysis in twitter,” 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  12. G. Mishne, N. S. Glance, et al., “Predicting movie sales from blogger sentiment.,” in AAAI Spring Symposium: Computational Approaches to Analyzing Weblogs, pp. 155–158, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  13. J. A. Chevalier and D. Mayzlin, “The effect of word of mouth on sales: Online book reviews,” Journal of marketing research, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 345–354, 2006.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  14. P. C. Tetlock, “Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market,” The Journal of Finance, vol. 62, no. 3, pp. 1139–1168, 2007.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. S. Asur and B. A. Huberman, “Predicting the future with social media,” in Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology (WI-IAT), 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on, vol. 1, pp. 492–499, IEEE, 2010.

    Google Scholar 

  16. J. R. Nofsinger, “Social mood and financial economics,” The Journal of Behavioral Finance, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 144–160, 2005.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. S. Baccianella, A. Esuli, and F. Sebastiani, “Sentiwordnet 3.0: An enhanced lexical resource for sentiment analysis and opinion mining.,” in LREC, vol. 10, pp. 2200–2204, 2010.

    Google Scholar 

  18. M. T. Hagan and M. B. Menhaj, “Training feedforward networks with the marquardt algorithm,” IEEE transactions on Neural Networks, vol. 5, no. 6, pp. 989–993, 1994.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  19. A. Lapedes and R. Farber, “Nonlinear signal processing using neural networks: Prediction and system modelling,” tech. rep., 1987.

    Google Scholar 

  20. T. Kimoto, K. Asakawa, M. Yoda, and M. Takeoka, “Stock market prediction system with modular neural networks,” in Neural Networks, 1990., 1990 IJCNN International Joint Conference on, pp. 1–6, IEEE, 1990.

    Google Scholar 

  21. X. Zhu, H. Wang, L. Xu, and H. Li, “Predicting stock index increments by neural networks: The role of trading volume under different horizons,” Expert Systems with Applications, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 3043–3054, 2008.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  22. E. Loper and S. Bird, “Nltk: The natural language toolkit,” in Proceedings of the ACL-02 Workshop on Effective tools and methodologies for teaching natural language processing and computational linguistics-Volume 1, pp. 63–70, Association for Computational Linguistics, 2002.

    Google Scholar 

  23. A. Esuli and F. Sebastiani, “Sentiwordnet: A publicly available lexical resource for opinion mining,” in Proceedings of LREC, vol. 6, pp. 417–422, Citeseer, 2006.

    Google Scholar 

  24. K. Denecke, “Using sentiwordnet for multilingual sentiment analysis,” in Data Engineering Workshop, 2008. ICDEW 2008. IEEE 24th International Conference on, pp. 507–512, IEEE, 2008.

    Google Scholar 

  25. B. Ohana and B. Tierney, “Sentiment classification of reviews using sentiwordnet,” in 9th. IT & T Conference, p. 13, 2009.

    Google Scholar 

  26. Online website, “Silver phoenix 500 (silver-phoenix500.com),” 2016.

    Google Scholar 

  27. Online website, “Gold eagle, empowering investors since, 1997 (gold-eagle.com),” 2016.

    Google Scholar 

  28. Online website, “Stock twits (stocktwits.com),” 2016.

    Google Scholar 

  29. Online website, “New york stock exchange (nyse.com),” 2016.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Divya Kumar .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2018 Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

About this paper

Cite this paper

Keshwani, K., Agarwal, P., Kumar, D., Ranvijay (2018). Prediction of Market Movement of Gold, Silver and Crude Oil Using Sentiment Analysis. In: Bhatia, S., Mishra, K., Tiwari, S., Singh, V. (eds) Advances in Computer and Computational Sciences. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 554. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3773-3_11

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3773-3_11

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Singapore

  • Print ISBN: 978-981-10-3772-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-981-10-3773-3

  • eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics