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Russo-Chinese Relations in Strategic Perspective

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International Relations and Asia’s Northern Tier

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Abstract

The Crimean crisis in March 2014 impels us to reconsider Sino-Russian relations. From Russia’s perspective, all that matters is that China—its largest trading partner and the primary hope for future investments—opposed sanctions and would not formally oppose Moscow at the Security Council. We see the limits of Russia’s ability to resist Chinese power in economic issues, e.g., energy and arms sales. China continues to pocket its gains: access to Russian oil, leverage over Rosneft, deterioration of East-West ties, and new arms sales. Moscow has signally failed to anchor the political-economic system, and Russia is increasingly anchored to China as energy and arms sales suggest. This is the conclusion despite Russian efforts to find some balance.

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Notes

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  3. 3.

    Angela Stent, The Limits of Partnership, xi.

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  14. 14.

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  15. 15.

    Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim, “The Latest Turn in Russia’s Korea Policy.”

  16. 16.

    As stated by Alexandros Petersen, at the Central Asia Caucasus Institute, SAIS, Washington, DC, November, 2013.

  17. 17.

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  18. 18.

    This is the formal name for the strategic concentration of all Russian military forces in the Asia-Pacific zone.

  19. 19.

    Edward N. Luttwak, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy(Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2012).

  20. 20.

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  21. 21.

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  22. 22.

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  23. 23.

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  24. 24.

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  25. 25.

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  26. 26.

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  27. 27.

    Interfax, August 29, 2013, FBIS SOV, August 29, 2013.

  28. 28.

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  29. 29.

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  30. 30.

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  31. 31.

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  32. 32.

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  33. 33.

    Stephen Blank, “Japan Responds to Multiple Security Challenges,” SIRS Monitor Relaunch Edition, February 2014, 28–33, http://issuu.com/sirsconsultancyltd/docs/monitor_magazine_issue_1.

  34. 34.

    Pavel Tarasenko, “Japan Offers Draw to Russia.”

  35. 35.

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  36. 36.

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  37. 37.

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  38. 38.

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  39. 39.

    “Crossing the First Island Chain.”

  40. 40.

    “Japan Must Accept China’s Rising Naval Power: PLA Admiral,” August 4, 2013, www.wantchinatimes.com.

  41. 41.

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  42. 42.

    Andrei Chang, “Who Made the Decision to Export SU-35 Fighters to China?” 20.

  43. 43.

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  44. 44.

    Interfax, January 22, 2014, Open Source Center, FBIS SOV, January 22, 2014.

  45. 45.

    “Gazprom Hopes to Clinch China Deal during Putin Visit in May,” Reuters, January 22, 2014.

  46. 46.

    China Daily Online, January 22, 2014, FBIS SOV, January 22, 2014.

  47. 47.

    “Rosneft Inks $270 BN China Oil Deal,” www.upstreamonline.com, June 21, 2013; Interfax, June 21, 2013, Open Source Center, FBIS SOV, June 21, 2013; Neil Buckley, “Inside Business: Russia’s Eastern Energy pivot Has Limits,” Financial Times, June 28, 2013, 14.

  48. 48.

    “Rosneft Inks $270 BN China Oil Deal.”

  49. 49.

    Dmitry Zhdannikov and Vladimir Soldatkin, “Exclusive: Russia Plans $25–30 Billion-Oil-For-Loans Deal With China,” Reuters, February 13, 2013; “China May Grant Rosneft Loan for More Oil—Dvorkovich,” RIA Novosti, February 27, 2013, http://en.rian.ru/business/20130227/179711229/China-May-Grant-Rosneft-Loan-for-More-Oil–Dvorkovich.html; World China Times, April 14, 2013, FBIS SOV, April 14, 2013.

  50. 50.

    Rakteem Katakey and Will Kennedy, “Russia Lets China into Arctic Rush as Energy Giants Embrace,” Bloomberg, March 25, 2013.

  51. 51.

    Aleksandr’ Gabuyev, “What to Expect From Russian Foreign Policy in 2014,” Russia Direct/ Kommersant-Vlast, January 7, 2014, FBIS SOV, January 7, 2014.

  52. 52.

    Stephen Blank, “Cold War in Asia? China, Russia, and Asian Security,” The Asan Forum, Vol. I, No. 1 (July-August, 2013), www.theasanforum.org.

  53. 53.

    Interfax-AVN Online, November 6, 2013, FBIS SOV, November 6, 2013.

  54. 54.

    Interfax, September 17, 2013, FBIS SOV, September 17, 2013; Interfax-AVN Online, October 14, 2013, FBIS SOV, October 14, 2013.

  55. 55.

    Andrei Chang, “Who Made the Decision to Export SU-35 Fighters to China?”

  56. 56.

    M.K. Bhadrakumar, “India Extends Hand of Friendship to Russia,” March 7, 2014, http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/03/07/india-extends-hand-of-friendship-to-russia; Shannon Tiezzi, “China Backs Russia on Ukraine,” Thediplomat.com, March 4, 2014; John Allen Gay, “Daylight Between China and Russia on Ukraine,” The National Interest, March 6, 2014, www.thenationalinterest.org; Elizabeth C. Economy, “China’s Soft ‘Nyet’ to Russia’s Ukraine Intervention,” Council on Foreign Relations, March 6, 2014, www.blogs.cfr.org; Peter Ford, “China to Russia: You’re Putting Us in a Tight Spot,” Christian Science Monitor, March 7, 2014, www.csm.com; David Cohen, “With Allies Like These Who Needs Rivals?” Jamestown China Brief14, no. 5 (March 7, 2014): 2–4; Richard Weitz, “Symbolism Over Substance,” Jamestown China Brief14, no. 5 (March 7, 2014):11–14.

  57. 57.

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  58. 58.

    Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim, “Same Bed, Different Dreams,” 63–80.

  59. 59.

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  60. 60.

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  61. 61.

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  62. 62.

    “Address by President of the Russian Federation,” March 18, 2014, http://eng.kremlin.ru/news/6889.

  63. 63.

    Interfax, March 21, 2014, FBIS SOV, March 21, 2014.

  64. 64.

    The author is preparing a longer article on this crisis’ impact on Russian relations in Asia.

  65. 65.

    Global Times Online, March 20, 2014, FBIS SOV, March 21, 2014.

  66. 66.

    Global Times Online, March 20, 2014.

  67. 67.

    Fenghuang wei shi chungwentai, March 19, 2014, FBIS SOV, March 20, 2014.

  68. 68.

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  69. 69.

    Edward N. Luttwak, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy.

  70. 70.

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  71. 71.

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  72. 72.

    Edward N. Luttwak, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy.

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Blank, S. (2018). Russo-Chinese Relations in Strategic Perspective. In: Rozman, G., Radchenko, S. (eds) International Relations and Asia’s Northern Tier. Asan-Palgrave Macmillan Series. Palgrave, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3144-1_6

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