Chinese Strategic Thinking Regarding North Korea

Abstract

China seeks a favorable balance of power in Northeast Asia, a process of reunification on the Korean Peninsula that pays suitable attention to China’s national interests, and denuclearization. The oldest concern is the region’s balance of power. The precarious situation of North Korea fuels speculation that the regime may collapse before long. Chinese analysts see no such prospects. Two competing political-security blocs are on the horizon, repeating the basic power structure when the inter-Korean rivalry arose. China reaps benefits from division on the peninsula. Both Koreas would seek China’s support, allowing it room to maneuver. North Korea serves as a buffer zone and as a counterweight against US rebalancing. China’s strategic goals do not call for perpetuation of the divided peninsula, but its transformation into a neutral country. Until then, the status quo is preferable.