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Mongolia’s Dilemma: A Politically Linked, Economically Isolated Small Power

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International Relations and Asia’s Northern Tier

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Abstract

Mongolia has three options: 1) riding the Chinese high-speed train; 2) accommodating Russia’s interests; and 3) embracing Japanese geopolitics. It needs to exploit all three, but it should keep its heated domestic politics out of major economic projects. Russia is pressuring it to become an SCO member, to join in the Eurasian Economic Union, to reject both Western and Chinese involvement in its uranium mining and railways, and to gain “privileged” access. China is the only gateway to the Asia-Pacific region. It seeks to neutralize the influence of its strategic rivals and to attract Mongolia to its regional order, despite anti-Chinese sentiments. While US interest has dipped, Japanese interest has surged. The Japanese option is critical. Even so, foreign policy is shifting to Mongolia’s real neighbors.

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Notes

  1. 1.

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  2. 2.

    Tornike Turmanidze, Buffer States: Power Politics, Foreign Policies and Concepts (New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2009), 50.

  3. 3.

    Sarlagtay Mashbat, “Mongolian National Security Concept and Limits on Third Neighbor Policy,” in Third Neighbor Policy of Mongolia (Ulaanbaatar: Mongolian Institute for Strategic Studies, 2011), 5–15.

  4. 4.

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  5. 5.

    Michael Green et al, Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance, CSIS, 2014.

  6. 6.

    Takashi Inoguchi, “The Rise of ‘Abegeopolitics’: Japan’s New Engagement with the World,” Global Asia 9, no. 3 (2014): 30–36.

  7. 7.

    Gilbert Rozman, “The Russian Pivot to Asia,” The Asan Forum 2, no. 6 (2014); Alexander Gabuev, “Russia’s Policy towards China,” The Asan Forum 3, no. 2 (2015); Andrew Kuchins, “Russia and the CIS in 2014,” Asian Survey 55, no. 1 (2015): 148–156.

  8. 8.

    “The Joint Declaration of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Mongolia and PRC,” August 21, 2014, www.president.mn/content/4116.

  9. 9.

    “Олон талын хамтын ажиллагааг хөгжүүлнэ,” News.mn, September 4, 2014, accessed October 2, 2014, http://politics.news.mn/content/188466.shtml “Russia, Mongolia to sign visa-free travel agreement as part of Putin’s visit,” ITAR-TASS News, September 2, 2014, accessed January 24, 2015, www.itar-tass.com/en/russia/747697.

  10. 10.

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  11. 11.

    Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, “Japan-Mongolia Relations,” February 10, 2015, www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/mongolia/index.html.

  12. 12.

    The terms huaqiao (overseas Chinese, in Mongolian “hujaa”), danjaad, and luhaan (traditional labels for Chinese) are derogatory terms in Mongolia. According to quarterly public opinion surveys of the independent, non-profit Sant Maral Foundation, Russia is always picked as the best partner for Mongolia (about 80 percent) and Mongolians see better communications with Russians (over 55 percent) than China (25 percent±) and Chinese (below 50 percent) www.santmaral.mn/en/publications. The attitude toward China is most negative in Mongolia, according to the Comparative Barometer series (Japanese AsiaBarometer and Taiwanese Asian Barometer). See Jargalsaikhan Mendee, Anti-Chinese Attitudes in Post-Communist Mongolia: The Lingering Negative Schemas of the Past (Vancouver: UBC, 2011), 45–50.

  13. 13.

    The Strategic Entities Foreign Investment Law was passed by parliament in May 2012 and invalidated in October 2013 with the passage of the new investment law.

  14. 14.

    “A Consortium of China’s Shenhua Energy, Japan’s Sumitomo and Mongolia’s Energy Resources wins the tender to develop Tavon Talgoi coal deposit,” InfoMongolia.com, December 23, 2014, http://www.infomongolia.com/ct/ci/8766.

  15. 15.

    Jargalsaikhan Mendee, “Mongolia: Gauging Inner Asian Tensions over Railways,” Asia Pacific Memo, http://www.asiapacificmemo.ca/mongolia-gauging-inner-asian-tensions-over-railways; “End the rail gauge debate,” M.A.D. Mongolia Newswire, December 3, 2014, http://mad-intelligence.com/end-the-rail-gauge-debate/.

  16. 16.

    He made this statement in his address to the Mongolian legislature and at a press conference in Ulaanbaatar.

  17. 17.

    Sergey Radchenko, “Sino-Russian Competition in Mongolia,” The Asan Forum, November 22, 2013, http://www.theasanforum.org/sino-russian-competition-in-mongolia/.

  18. 18.

    Julian Dierkes, “Arbitration Award to Khan Resources,” March 2, 2015, http://blogs.ubc.ca/mongolia/2015/arbitration-award-to-khan-resources/; “Khan Announces US$100 million International Arbitration Award,” Khan Resources Inc., http://khanresources.com/investors/news/150302.pdf.

  19. 19.

    “First Mongolia-Russia-China trilateral meeting held during SCO Summit,” The UB Post, September 14, 2014, http://ubpost.mongolnews.mn/?p=11910.

  20. 20.

    “Mongolia-Russia visa-free travel regime effective on Friday,” newnews.mn, November 13, 2014, http://english.news.mn/content/195285.shtml.

  21. 21.

    “By Pipe and Rail: Russia in Search of Shorter Routes to Asian Markets,” Asia Pacific Memo, June 3, 2014, http://www.asiapacificmemo.ca/by-pipe-and-rail;“Mongolia Makes Moves to Reach out to Russia in Reaction to Ukraine Crisis,” The Jamestown Foundation, May 30, 2014, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42449&no_cache=1.

  22. 22.

    “Xi proposes to build China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor,” Xinhuanet, September 12, 2014, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2014-09/12/c_126977111.htm.

  23. 23.

    “Abe strikes energy deal with Mongolia in a bid to curb China’s clout,” The Asahi Shimbun, March 31, 2013, http://ajw.asahi.com/article/behind_news/politics/AJ201303310033.

  24. 24.

    Ministry of Defense, “Japan–Mongolia Defense Ministerial Meeting,” www.mod.go.jp/e/jdf/no25/leaders.html;“Mongolian-Japanese Economic Partnership Agreement: Counterbalancing China and Russia,” The Jamestown Foundation, August 8, 2014, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=42733&no_cache=1.

  25. 25.

    “Japan top donor of Mongolia for 22 years,” UB Post, October 1, 2012; “Statements and Basic Data on Japan-Mongolia Relations,” http://www.mofa.go.jp/region/asia-paci/mongolia/data.html.

  26. 26.

    Australia-Mongolia Program Strategy (2012–2016).

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Jargalsaikhan, M. (2018). Mongolia’s Dilemma: A Politically Linked, Economically Isolated Small Power. In: Rozman, G., Radchenko, S. (eds) International Relations and Asia’s Northern Tier. Asan-Palgrave Macmillan Series. Palgrave, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-3144-1_10

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