Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment in an Anthropogenically Impacted Tropical Catchment, Central Vietnam

  • Alexandra Nauditt
  • A. B. M. Firoz
  • Viet Quoc Trinh
  • Manfred Fink
  • Harro Stolpe
  • Lars Ribbe
Part of the Water Resources Development and Management book series (WRDM)


Seasonal meteorological and hydrological droughts are a recurrent phenomenon in water-abundant tropical countries and are expected to become more frequent in the future. Unusual water shortage in recent years has severely affected societies living in South East Asia in general and Vietnam in particular. Preparedness, however, is absent and site-appropriate water management measures and strategies are not available. While drought-related research and water management in recent years have been addressed in water scarce sub-tropical regions, the US and Europe, more limited research has been focused on drought risk in tropical catchments. In this study, the drought characteristics of a large tropical catchment in Central Vietnam, the Vu Gia Thu Bon, were analysed in an integrated assessment framework. Daily precipitation and runoff time series for the VGTB catchment were analysed applying statistical methods to compare historical meteorological and hydrological drought, in addition to low flow frequency and seasonality. The role of tropical catchment characteristics, storage and climate variability in seasonal drought evolution were analysed by applying statistical analyses and the spatially distributed J2000 rainfall-runoff model. To assess anthropogenic impacts on hydrological drought, human interventions in the hydrological system due to hydropower development were quantified with the HEC-ResSim Reservoir operation model and the implications of low flows for salt water intrusion in the delta were simulated by the hydrodynamic Mike 11 model. It can be concluded that such an integrated model-data analysis which accounts for both landscape controls and anthropogenic impacts on the local hydrological system is a useful approach for drought management in tropical countries.


  1. Adamson P, Bird J (2010) The Mekong: a drought-prone tropical environment? Int J Water Resour Dev 26:579–594CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Birkel C, Soulsby C, Tetzlaff D (2012) Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrol Sci J doi: 10.1080/02626667.2012.728707
  3. Bradshaw CJA, Sodhi NS, Peh KS-H, Brook BW (2007) Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world. Glob Change Biol 13:2379–2395. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2007.01446.x
  4. Bruijnzeel LA (1990) Hydrology of moist tropical forests and effects of conversion: a state of knowledge review by the faculty of earth sciences, Free University, PO Box 7161, 1007MC Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 224, UNESCO IHPGoogle Scholar
  5. Calder IR (1993) Hydrologic effects of land-use change. chapter 13. In: Maidment DR (ed) Handbook of hydrology. McGraw-Hill, New York, p. 50Google Scholar
  6. Calder IR (2000) Land use impacts on water resources. Background paper 1. In: FAO electronic workshop on land-water linkages in rural watersheds. 18 September–27 October 2000Google Scholar
  7. Fink M, Fischer C, Führer N, Firoz AMB, Viet TQ, Laux P, Flügel W (2013). Distributive hydrological modeling of a monsoon dominated river system in central Vietnam. International congress on modelling and simulation(20th), pp 1826–1832Google Scholar
  8. Firoz ABM, Nauditt A, Fink M, Ribbe L (2016) Modelling the impact of hydropower development and operation on downstream discharge in a highly dynamic tropical central Vietnamese river basin, submitted to HESSGoogle Scholar
  9. Geng G, Wu J, Wang Q, Lei T, He B, Li X, Mo X, Luo H, Zhou H, Liu D (2016) Agricultural drought hazard analysis during 1980–2008: a global perspective. Int J Climatol 36Google Scholar
  10. Hartigan J-A, Wong MA (1979) Algorithm AS 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. Appl Stat 100–108Google Scholar
  11. ICEM (2008) Strategic environmental assessment of the Quang Nam Province Hydropower Plan for the Vu Gia-Thu Bon River Basin. Prepared for the ADB, MONRE, MOITT & EVN, Hanoi, Viet Nam, 1–205Google Scholar
  12. IMHEN (2008) Mapping drought and water deficient level in the South Central Coast and Highlands. HanoiGoogle Scholar
  13. IMHEN (2012) Climate change, sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam. Ministry of Resources management and Environment, HanoiGoogle Scholar
  14. Krause P (2002) Quantifying the impact of land use changes on the water balance of large catchments using the J2000 model. Phy Chem Earth 27:663–673Google Scholar
  15. Kralisch S, Krause P (2006) JAMS—a framework for natural resource model development and application. In: Voinov A, Jakeman A, Rizzoli AE (eds) proceedings of the iEMSs third biannual meeting. Burlington, USAGoogle Scholar
  16. Kralisch S, Krause P, Fink M, Fischer C, Flügel W-A (2007) Component based environmental modelling using the JAMS framework. In: Kulasiri D, Oxley L (eds) proceedings of the MODSIM 2007 international congress on modelling and simulation. Christchurch, New ZealandGoogle Scholar
  17. MacQueen JB (1967) Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In: proceedings of 5th berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability. I:281–297, Univercity of California Press, Berkeley, CaliforniaGoogle Scholar
  18. McKee TB, Doesken NJ, Kleist J (1993) The relationship of drought frequency and duration of time scales. Presented at the eighth conference on applied climatology, Anaheim, CA. American Meteorological Society, pp 179–186Google Scholar
  19. Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) A review of drought concepts. J Hydrol 391:202–216Google Scholar
  20. Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models. Part I—A discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10:282–290Google Scholar
  21. Navuth T (2007) Drought management in the Lower Mekong Basin. MRC, VientianeGoogle Scholar
  22. NDMC (2012) Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Oxfordshire OX10 8BB, UKNDMC, 2012, National Drought Mitigation Center Website, International Early Warning. Assessed 20 July 2012
  23. RCHM (Regional Center for Hydro-meteorology) (2013) Time series of meteo-hydrologic data in 1977–2010 in the Vu Gia Thu Bon River BasinGoogle Scholar
  24. Stoelzle M, Stahl K, Morhard A, Weiler M (2014) Streamflow sensitivity to drought scenarios in catchments with different geology. Geophys Res Lett 41:6174–6183 doi: 10.1002/2014GL061344
  25. Tallaksen LM, van Lanen HAJ (2004) Introduction. In: Tallaksen LM, von Lanen HAJ (eds) Hydrological drought—processes and estimation methods for streamflow and groundwater. Developments in water science, vol 48. Elsevier Science B.V, AmsterdamGoogle Scholar
  26. Terink W, Immerzeel WW, Droogers P (2011) Drought monitoring and impact assessment in the Mekong River Basin. Report Future Water: 104, WageningenGoogle Scholar
  27. UCL (2012) Global Drought Monitor, University College London, Department of Space and Climate Physics, Aon Benfield, UCL Hazard Research Centre. Assessed 22 July 2012Google Scholar
  28. UNDP (2011) Mainstreaming drought risk management—a primer, UNON Printshop, Nairobi United Nations Office at Nairobi (UNON), Publishing Services Section, ISO 14001:2004-certified/March 2011Google Scholar
  29. UN-ISDR (2005) The Hyogo framework of action, Geneva: UN-ISDR. Assessed 15 July 2012
  30. UN-ISDR (2009) Drought risk reduction, framework and practices: contributing to the implementation of the Hyogo framework of action. UN-ISDR, GenevaGoogle Scholar
  31. Van Lanen HAJ, Wanders N, Tallaksen LM, Van Loon AF (2013) Hydrological drought across the world: impact of climate and physical catchment structure. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 17:1715–1732Google Scholar
  32. Van Loon AF, Van Lanen HAJ (2012) A process-based typology of hydrological drought. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(7):1915–1946. doi: 10.5194/hess-16-1915-2012 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Van Loon AF, Van Lanen HAJ (2013) Making the distinction between water scarcity and drought using an observation-modeling framework. Water Resour Res 49:1483–1502. doi: 10.1002/wrcr.20147
  34. Van Loon AF (2013) On the propagation of drought—how climate and catchment characteristics influence hydrological drought development and recovery. PhD thesis, Wageningen UniversityGoogle Scholar
  35. Van Loon AF (2015) Hydrological drought explained. WIREs Water 2:359–392. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1085
  36. Van Loon AF, Laaha G (2015) Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. J Hydrol doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059
  37. Van Loon AF, Gleeson T, Clark J, Van Dijk AIJM, Stahl K, Hannaford J, Di Baldassarre G, Teuling AJ, Tallaksen LM, Uijlenhoet R, Hannah DM, Sheffield J, Svoboda M, Verbeiren B, Wagener T, Rangecroft S, Wanders N, Van Lanen HAJ (2016) Drought in the anthropocene. Nat Geosci 9:89–91. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2646
  38. Viet TQ (2014) PhD Thesis: estimating the impact of climate change induced saltwater intrusion on agriculture in estuaries-the case of the Vu Gia Thu Bon river basin, Central Vietnam, University of Bochum/Cologne University of Applied Sciences, ITTGoogle Scholar
  39. Viet TQ, Stolpe H, Ribbe L, Nauditt A (2016) Impact of sea level rise on saltwater intrusion in the Vu Gia Thu Bon estuary, Central Vietnam, submitted to Continental Shelf ResearchGoogle Scholar
  40. Vogt JV, Safriel U, Maltitz GV, Sokona Y, Zougmore R, Bastin G, Hill G (2011) Monitoring and assessment of land degradation and desertification: towards new conceptual and integrated approaches. Land Degrad Dev 22:150–165CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Wilhite DA, Glantz MH (1985) “Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions”. Drought Mitigation Center Faculty Publications. Paper 20Google Scholar
  42. Wilhite DA, Sivakumar MVK, Wood DA, Svoboda MD (2000) Early warning systems for drought preparedness and drought management. In: Proceedings of an expert group meeting held in Lisbon, Portugal, 5–7 September, 2000. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, SwitzerlandGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Alexandra Nauditt
    • 1
  • A. B. M. Firoz
    • 1
  • Viet Quoc Trinh
    • 1
    • 2
  • Manfred Fink
    • 3
  • Harro Stolpe
    • 2
  • Lars Ribbe
    • 1
  1. 1.Institute for Technology and Resources Management in the Tropics and Subtropics, Technical University of Applied SciencesCologneGermany
  2. 2.Environmental Engineering and EcologyUniversity of BochumBochumGermany
  3. 3.Department of GeographyFriedrich-Schiller University JenaJenaGermany

Personalised recommendations