Prediction Model

Abstract

5.12 Wenchuan earthquake induced disasters of hundreds of landslides and debris flow, and ten thousand of hazard points turned out in 39 severely affected counties solely in Sichuan Province, in which landslide hazard point accounted for 41 %, which brought huge loss to China and our people. However, the earthquake also urged domestic and overseas specialists and scholars to conduct further research on landslides prediction and promote many kinds of landslides prediction model and methods, which can be roughly summarized into the following three kinds: ① empirical statistical prediction model, which obtains statistical formula representing the relations of landslides horizontal sliding distance and its influence factors; ② deterministic prediction model, which is the physical model, based on the dynamic principle of mass, combining conservation laws of landslides motion mode, mechanism and energy and momentum together; ③ numerical analysis prediction model, which mainly uses numerical methods such as DEM and grain flow to simulate the whole landslides process so as to predict the horizontal sliding distance of landslides.