Abstract
In 2015, China’s real GDP grew by 6.9 %, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year and the lowest of the last 25 years. Influenced by excess production capacity in the upstream manufacturing and a slowdown in export manufacturing, the real growth of industrial added value was 5.9 %, a decrease of 1.0 percentage points from the previous year and the lowest since 1997 (see Fig. 1.1). There were many factors behind the continued decline of China’s economy. In demand terms, a continued slowdown of domestic investment demand and a continued slump in international market demand were the main factors. In supply terms, it was the result of structural disequilibrium and productivity impairment due to demand structure transformation. Furthermore, several important constraints impeded the steady and rapid development of China’s economy during the “New Normal,” such as an imbalance in the income distribution structure, a slowdown of market-oriented reform in the production factor market, a lag and imperfection in market-oriented reform in the capital market, and an inconformity between the economic growth pattern and economic development stages.
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Notes
- 1.
Although the economic growth of China continued to decline, 11 million new jobs were generated for urban residents in 2015, exceeding the target of 10 million new jobs set in early 2015, and slightly higher than 10.70 million in 2014; at the same time, reduction in the supply of labor force also eased the pressure on employment to a certain extent. By the end of 2015, the population for mainland China is 1.37462 billion, an increase of 6.8 million person than the previous year. Person aged 16–59 years (including those below 60 years), the working-age population, totaled 910.96 million people; this was 4.87 million persons less than the previous year, share of the total population of 66.3 %.
- 2.
See Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University, China’s Macroeconomic Outlook, quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report (autumn of 2015).
- 3.
See the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Xiamen University, China’s Macroeconomic Outlook, quarterly Forecast and Analysis Report (autumn 2015).
- 4.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, new industry grew rapidly, and the added value of high-tech industry grew by 10.2 %, an increase of 4.1 percentage points faster than the industries above the designated scale, representing 11.8 % of the industries above the designated scale, an increase of 1.2 percentage points over the previous year.
- 5.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, investment in national real estate development was 9.5979 trillion yuan in 2015, a nominal increase of 1.0 % from the previous year (real growth was 2.8 %).
- 6.
This included transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, electricity, heating power, gas and water production, and the supply industry.
- 7.
We can’t ignore the role of state-owned and state-holding enterprises.
- 8.
According to the IMF World Economic Outlook. Growth in 2016 is predicted to be back to 3.4 %, and growth in 2017 is predicted to rise to 4.1 %.
- 9.
Data from the Ministry of Commerce’s website.
- 10.
Measured by team.
- 11.
Mainly because of the lack of effective disposal measures for state-owned “zombie” enterprises.
- 12.
In 2015, the profits of the abovementioned industrial enterprises grew by −2.3 %, a decrease of 5.6 percentage points from the previous year.
- 13.
In 2015, regulators restricted the expansion of commercial banks’ off-balance sheet activities and social financial scale by regulating the inter-bank business standard. Trust loans accounted for 0.28 % of the total social finance, a decrease of 2.82 percentage points from the previous year.
- 14.
In 2015, general public budget revenue was 15.2217 trillion yuan; the growth rate, which was below the initial budget target, slowed to 8.4 %, or even 5.8 % at the same caliber, a decrease of 2.8 % from the previous year. General public budget spending was 17.5768 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.8 %, or 13.2 % at the same caliber, from the previous year, and 4.9 % higher in terms of growth rate.
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Center for Macroeconomic Research of Xiamen University. (2016). A Review of China’s Economy in 2015. In: China’s Macroeconomic Outlook . Current Chinese Economic Report Series. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2068-1_1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2068-1_1
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