The Urgent Need for Changes to Current Fertility Policies

Abstract

Mitigating the pressure from population aging is one of the primary objectives of adjustments to fertility policies, yet to date, there is a lack of clear, accurate understanding of the pressure caused by aging in China; this has undermined scientific policy-making surrounding the important issue of the fertility policy adjustments. In this paper, using our innovative AECI method, we make quantitative analysis and international comparisons to demonstrate that despite rapid, long economic growth, China will still face enormous economic pressure from aging as a result of extraordinarily rapid population aging. We conclude that lacking an appropriate response, China’s modernization may be delayed as a result of aging. An appropriate relaxing of current fertility policies at the correct time is urgently needed if we are to alleviate the enormous coming pressure from aging. We thereby suggest an appropriate relaxation of the current fertility policies at the proper time, and provide evidence to support this position.

This article was, after revisions, first published in the CPC Party School Periodical Sixiang lilun neican [Internal Review of Thought and Theory] under the title “Appropriate Adjustments to Birth Control Policies are Urgently Needed.” In that form it was issued to the Central Politburo, the Central Secretariat, and the State Council. This policy consultation research report was written on the basis of the paper “Quantitative Study of Coordination between Aging and Economic Development in China from 1980 to 2050” (first paper of this collection).