Economic Change, Value Shift and Fertility Behaviour

  • Nobutaka FukudaEmail author


This chapter is divided into two main parts. The first part of the chapter is dedicated to examining the influence of ideational factors on fertility behaviour; we will analyse the impact of childbirth on couples’ attitudes in the second part of the chapter. We will first look at Japanese fertility trends in the light of the socio-economic environments surrounding childbearing and Japanese attitudes towards partnership and children. Subsequently, we will briefly provide the theoretical background of this analysis. After explaining the data and methods used in this chapter, we will present the results of this analysis with regard to the influence of ideational factors on fertility behaviour. Finally, we will investigate the impact of childbirth on couples’ attitudes towards partnership and family.


Childrearing cost Individualistic attitude Opportunity cost Self-fulfilment Value of children Women’s employment 


  1. Ahn, N., & Mira, P. (2001). Job bust, baby bust?: Evidence from Spain. Journal of Population Economics, 14, 505–521.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Andorka, R. (1978). The determinants of fertility in advanced societies. London: Methuen.Google Scholar
  3. Ariès, P. (1980). Two successive motivations for the declining birth rate in the west. Population and Development Review, 6, 645–650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Axinn, W. G., & Thornton, A. (1992). The relationship between cohabitation and divorce: Selectivity or causal influence? Demography, 29, 357–374.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Balbo, N., Billari, F. C., & Mills, M. (2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population, 29, 1–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Becker, G. S. (1960). An economic analysis of fertility. In Demographic and economic change in developed countries, edited by Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research (pp. 209–231). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  7. Becker, G. S. (1975). Human capital: A theoretical and empirical analysis, with special reference to education. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  8. Becker, G. S. (1976). The economic approach to human behavior. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  9. Becker, G. S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
  10. Becker, G. S., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 81, S279–S288.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Blake, J. (1967). Income and reproductive motivation. Population Studies, 21, 185–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Blake, J. (1968). Are babies consumer durables? A critique of the economic theory of reproductive motivation. Population Studies, 22, 5–25.Google Scholar
  13. Bongaarts, J. (1976). Intermediate fertility variables and marital fertility rates. Population Studies, 30, 227–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Bongaarts, J. (1978). A framework of analyzing the proximate determinants of fertility. Population and Development Review, 4, 105–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (1998). On the quantum and tempo of fertility. Population and Development Review, 24, 271–291.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. Bongaarts, J., & Feeney, G. (2000). On the quantum and tempo of fertility: Reply. Population and Development Review, 26, 560–564.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Brodmann, S., Esping-Andersen, G., & Güell, M. (2007). When fertility is bargained: Second births in Denmark and Spain. European Sociological Review, 23, 599–613.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  18. Bulatao, R. A., & Lee, R. D. (1983). A framework for the study of fertility determinants. In R. Bulatao & R. D. Lee (Eds.), Determinants of fertility in developing countries (pp. 1–26). New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  19. Bumpass, L. (1969). Age at marriage as a variable in socio-economic differentials in fertility. Demography, 6, 45–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. Bumpass, L., & Mburugu, E. K. (1977). Age at marriage and completed family size. Social Biology, 24, 31–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  21. Busfield, J. (1972). Age at marriage and family size: Social causation and social selection hypotheses. Journal of Biosocial Science, 4, 117–134.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Butz, W., & Ward, M. (1979). The emergence of counter-cyclical US fertility. American Economic Review, 69, 318–328.Google Scholar
  23. Cabinet Office. (2009). National opinion survey on social life. Tokyo: Cabinet Office.Google Scholar
  24. Caldwell, J. C. (1982). Theory of fertility decline. New York: Academic Press.Google Scholar
  25. Caldwell, J. C. (2006). Demographic transition theory. Dordrecht: Springer.Google Scholar
  26. Davis, K., & Blake, J. (1956). Social structure and fertility: An analytic framework. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 4, 211–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Easterlin, R. A. (1971). Does human fertility adjust to the environment? American Economic Review, 61, 399–407.Google Scholar
  28. Easterlin, R. A. (1978). The economics and sociology of fertility. In C. Tilly (Ed.), Historical studies of changing fertility (pp. 57–134). Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  29. Elder, G. H. (1977). Children of the great depression: Social change in life experience. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  30. Engelhardt, H., & Prskawetz, A. (2004). On the changing correlation between fertility and female employment over space and time. European Journal of Population, 20, 35–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Engelhardt, H., Kögel, T., & Prskawetz, A. (2004). Fertility and women’s employment reconsidered: A macro-level time-series analysis for developed countries, 1960–2000. Population Studies, 58, 109–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Ermisch, J. (1970). Time costs, aspirations, and the effect of economic growth on german fertility. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 42, 125–144.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  33. Ermisch, J. (1979). The relevance of the “Easterlin hypothesis” and “new home economics” to fertility movement in great Britain. Population Studies, 33, 39–58.Google Scholar
  34. Friedlander, S., & Silver, M. (1967). A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior. Demography, 4, 30–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Fukuda, N. (2003a). Comparing family-friendly policies in Japan and Europe: Are we in the same or in a different league? Journal of Population and Social Security, 1, 31–45.Google Scholar
  36. Fukuda, N. (2003b). Governmental support for families with children: Japan and Europe. Journal of Population Problems, 59, 7–26.Google Scholar
  37. Gauthier, A. H. (1996). The state and the family. Oxford: Clarendon Press.Google Scholar
  38. Guo, S., & Fraser, M. W. (2014). Propensity score analysis: Statistical methods and applications. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  39. Hagenaars, J. A. (1993). Loglinear models with latent variables. Thousand Oaks, California: Sage Publications.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  40. Hagenaars, J. A., & McCutcheon, A. L. (2002). Applied latent class analysis. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Hashimoto, M. (1974). Economics of postwar fertility in Japan. Journal of Political Economy, 82, S170–S194.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Hashimoto, M. (1980). Demand for children in Japan during modernization. Research in Population Economics, 2, 295–320.Google Scholar
  43. Hirschman, C., & Rindfuss, R. R. (1982). The sequence and timing of family formation events in Asia. American Sociological Review, 47, 660–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  44. Hochschild, Arlie Russell, & Machung, Anne. (2003). The second shift. New York: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
  45. Hodge, R. W., & Ogawa, N. (1991). Fertility change in contemporary Japan. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
  46. Hoem, B. (1993). The compatibility of employment and childbearing in contemporary Sweden. Acta Sociologica, 36, 101–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  47. Hoem, B., & Hoem, J. (1989). The impact of women’s employment on second and third birth in modern Sweden. Population Studies, 43, 47–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  48. Jones, E. F. (1981). The impact of women’s employment on marital fertility in the U.S., 1970–75. Population Studies, 35, 161–173.Google Scholar
  49. Joshi, H. (1998). The opportunity cost of childbearing: More than mothers’ business. Journal of Population Economics, 11, 161–183.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  50. Kögel, T. (2004). Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign? Journal of Population Economics, 17, 45–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. Kravdal, Ø. (1992). The weak impact of female labour force participation on Norwegian third-birth rates. European Journal of Population, 8, 247–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  52. Kohler, H. P., Billari, F. C., & Ortega, J. A. (2002). The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s. Population and Development Review, 28, 641–680.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  53. Murphy, M. (1993a). The contraceptive pill and women’s employment as factors in fertility change in Britain 1963–1980: A challenge to the conventional view. Population Studies, 47, 221–247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  54. Murphy, M. (1993b). Time-series approaches to the analysis of fertility change. In M. Ní Bhrolcháin (Ed.), New perspectives of fertility in Britain (pp. 51–66). London: OPCS.Google Scholar
  55. Mincer, J. (1963). Market prices, opportunity costs and income effects. In C. F. Christ, M. Friedman, L. A. Goodman, Z. Griliches, A. C. Harberger, N. Liviatan, J. Mincer, Y. Mundlak, M. Nerlove, D. Patinkin, L. G. Telser & H. Theil (Eds.), Measurement in econometrics: Studies in mathematical economics and econometrics in memory of Yehuda Grunfeld (pp. 67–82). Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
  56. Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology. (Various years). School basic survey. Tokyo: Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology.Google Scholar
  57. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. (2012). Basic survey on wage structure. Tokyo: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.Google Scholar
  58. Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. (Various years). Vital statistics. Tokyo: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. (2012). Survey on time use and leisure activities. Tokyo: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Google Scholar
  59. Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. (2012). Survey on time use and leisure activities. Tokyo: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications.Google Scholar
  60. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research. (Various years). Japanese fertility survey. Tokyo: Health and Welfare Statistics Association.Google Scholar
  61. Osawa, M. (1988). Working mothers: Changing patterns of employment and fertility in Japan. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36, 623–650.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  62. Raftery, A. E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research. In P. V. Marsden (Ed.), Sociological methodology (pp. 111–163). Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Google Scholar
  63. Retherford, R., & Ogawa, N. (2006). Japan’s baby bust: Cause, implications, and policy responses. In F. R. Harris (Ed.), The baby bust: Who will do the work? who will pay the taxes? (pp. 5–47). Lanham: Rowman & Littlefielf Publishers.Google Scholar
  64. Retherford, R., Ogawa, N., & Sakamoto, S. (1996). Values and fertility change in Japan. Population Studies, 50, 5–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  65. Ryder, N. B. (1965). The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review, 30, 843–861.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Vermunt, J. K. (1997). Log-linear models for event histories. London: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
  67. Waite, L. J., Goldscheider, F. K., & Witsberger, C. (1986). Non-family living and the erosion of traditional family orientations among young adults. American Sociological Review, 51, 541–554.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  68. Weller, R. H. (1977). Wife’s employment and cumulative family size in the United States, 1960 and 1970. Demography, 14, 43–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  69. Westoff, C. F., & Ryder, N. B. (1977). Contraceptive revolution. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
  70. Westoff, C. F., Hammerslough, C. R., & Paul, C. (1987). The potential impact of improvements in contraception and fertility in western countries. European Journal of Population, 3, 7–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  71. Wilkinson, M. (1973). An econometric analysis of fertility in Sweden, 1870–1965. Econometrica, 41, 633–642.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  72. Willis, R. J. (1973). A new approach to the economic theory of fertility behavior. Journal of Political Economy, 81, S14–S64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  73. Willis, R. J. (1987). The family. What have we learned from the economics of the family? American Economic Review, 77, 68–81.Google Scholar
  74. Yamamura, K., & Hanley, S. (1975). Ichi hime, Ni Tarô: Education aspirations and the decline of fertility in Postwar Japan. Journal of Japanese Studies, 2, 83–125.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  75. Zuanna, G. D. (2004). The Banquet of Aeolus: A familistic interpretattion of Italy’s lowest low fertility. In G. Dalla Zuanna & G. A. Micheli (Eds.), Strong family and low fertility: A paradox?: New perspectives in interpreting contemporary family and reproductive behaviour (pp. 105–125). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016

Open Access This chapter is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License, which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Tohoku UniversitySendaiJapan

Personalised recommendations