Skip to main content

Effects-Based Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Support of European Air Pollution Abatement Policies

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments

Abstract

Critical load and exceedance based indicators for effects of air pollution are used to define and compare air pollution abatement scenarios, thus assisting in the framing of policies and strategies, of emission abatement options. In this chapter the effects-based support of European air pollution abatement policies since the early 1990s is described. The systematic use of computed as well as empirical critical loads and other impact assessment methodologies, such as dynamic modelling, are addressed. Computed impacts of policy alternatives that have been considered to alleviate acidification and eutrophication are compared, including the relative robustness of the magnitude and location of these impacts in Europe. It is concluded that policies have led to significant reductions in the acidification over the whole of Europe, such that expected impacts are currently minimal. With respect to eutrophication it is concluded that the excessive atmospheric deposition of nitrogen compounds will continue to have detrimental impacts on plant biodiversity and ecosystems, unless emissions of oxidized and reduced nitrogen are further reduced.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 129.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 169.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Amann, M., Bertok, I., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Cofala, J., Heyes, C., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Klimont, Z., Nguyen, B., Posch, M., Rafaj, P., Sandler, R., Schöpp, W., Wagner, F., & Winiwarter, W. (2011). Cost-effective control of air quality and greenhouse gases in Europe: Modeling and policy applications. Environmental Modelling & Software, 26, 1489–1501.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bobbink, R., & Hettelingh, J.-P. (2011). Review and revision of empirical critical loads and dose-response relationships: Proceedings of an expert workshop, Noordwijkerhout, 23-25 June 2010 (Report 680359002/2011). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bull, K. R., Achermann, B., Bashkin, V., Chrast, R., Fenech, G., Forsius, M., Gregor, H.-D., Guardans, R., Haußmann, T., Hayes, F., Hettelingh, J.-P., Johannessen, T., Krzyzanowski, M., Kucera, V., Kvaeven, B., Lorenz, M., Lundin, L., Mills, G., Posch, M., Skjelkvåle, B. L., & Ulstein, M. J. (2001). Coordinated effects monitoring and modelling for developing and supporting international air pollution control agreements. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 130, 119–130.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Davies, C. E., & Moss, D. (1999). EUNIS habitat classification. Copenhagen: European Environment Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • De Vries, W., Kros, J., Reinds, G. J., Wamelink, G. W. W., Mol, J., van Dobben, H., Bobbink, R., Emmett, B., Smart, S., Evans, C., Schlutow, A., Kraft, P., Belyazid, S., Sverdrup, H. U., van Hinsberg, A., Posch, M., & Hettelingh, J.-P. (2007). Developments in deriving critical limits and modelling critical loads of nitrogen for terrestrial ecosystems in Europe. (Report 1382). Wageningen: Alterra Wageningen UR.

    Google Scholar 

  • EC. (2001). Directive 2001/81/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2001 on national emission ceilings for certain atmospheric pollutants. Brussel: European Commision.

    Google Scholar 

  • EEA. (2012). NEC Directive Status Report 2011. (Technical report 6/2012). European Environment Agency.

    Google Scholar 

  • Eliassen, A., Hov, Ø., Isaksen, I. S. A., Saltbones, J., & Stordal, F. (1982). A Lagrangian long-range transport model with atmospheric boundary layer chemistry. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 21, 1645–1661.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • EMEP. (1998). Transboundary acidifying air pollution in Europe. Part 1: Estimated dispersion of acidifying and eutrophying compounds and comparison with observations. Part 2: Numerical Addendum. Oslo: EMEP/MSC-W Report 1/98 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., & Posch, M. (1994). Critical loads and a dynamic assessment of ecosystem recovery. In J. Grasman & G. Van Straten (Eds.), Predictability and nonlinear modelling in natural sciences and economics (pp. 439–446). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., & Posch, M. (1997). An analysis of the critical load and input data variability. In M. Posch, J.-P. Hettelingh, P. A. M. de Smet, & R. J. Downing (Eds.), Calculation and mapping of critical thresholds in Europe. CCE Status Report 1997 (RIVM Report 259101007) (pp. 29–39). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J. P., Posch, M., de Smet, P. A. M., & Downing, R. J. (1995). The use of critical loads in emission reduction agreements in Europe. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 85, 2381–2388.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., Posch, M., & De Smet, P. A. M. (1997). The use of critical thresholds to assess natural stock at risk. Environmental Research Forum, 7–8, 536–544.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., Posch, M., & de Smet, P. A. M. (2001). Multi-effect critical loads used in multi-pollutant reduction agreements in Europe. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 130, 1133–1138.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., Posch, M., Slootweg, J., Reinds, G. J., Spranger, T., & Tarrasón, L. (2007a). Critical loads and dynamic modelling to assess European areas at risk of acidification and eutrophication. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution: Focus, 7, 379–384.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., Posch, M., & Slootweg, J. (2007b). Tentatively exploring the likelihood of exceedances: Ensemble Assessment of Impacts (EAI). In J. Slootweg, M. Posch, & J.-P. Hettelingh (Eds.), Critical loads of nitrogen and dynamic modelling, CCE Progress Report 2007 (pp. 53–58). MNP Report 500090001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J. P., Posch, M., & Slootweg, J. (2008). Critical load, dynamic modelling and impact assessment in Europe. CCE status report 2008 (RIVM Report 500090003). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., De Vries, B., & Hordijk, L. (2009). Integrated assessment. In J. Boersema & L. Reijnders (Eds.), Principles of environmental sciences (pp. 385–417). New York: Springer.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Hettelingh, J.-P., Posch, M., Velders, J. M., Ruyssenaars, P., Adam, M., de Leeuw, F., Lükewille, A., Maas, R., Sliggers, J., & Slootweg, J. (2013). Assessing interim objectives for acidification, eutrophication and ground-level ozone of the EU National Emissions Ceilings Directive with 2001 and 2012 knowledge. Atmospheric Environment, 75, 129–140.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. (2005). Guidance notes for lead authors of the IPCC fourth assessment report on addressing uncertainties. (http://www.ipcc-wg1.unibe.ch/publications/supportingmaterial/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf). Accessed 26 Nov 2014.

  • Kopáček, J., & Posch, M. (2011). Anthropogenic nitrogen emissions during the Holocene and their possible effects on remote ecosystems. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 25, GB2017.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., & Reinds, G. J. (2005). The European background database. In M. Posch, J.-P. Hettelingh, & J. Slootweg (Eds.), European critical loads and dynamic modelling. CCE status report 2005 (pp. 33–37). Bilthoven: RIVM Report 259101016/2005, ISBN 9069601281, Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., de Smedt, P. A. M., Hettelingh, J. P., & Downing, R. J. (1999). Calculation and mapping of critical thresholds in Europe. CCE status report 1999 (RIVM report 259101009). Bilthoven: Coordination Center for Effects, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., Hettelingh, J.-P., & Mayerhofer, P. (2001a). Past and future exceedances of nitrogen critical loads in Europe. The Scientific World Journal, 1, 945–952.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., Hettelingh, J.-P., & De Smet, P. A. M. (2001b). Characterization of critical load exceedances in Europe. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, 130, 1139–1144.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., Hettelingh, J.-P., & Slootweg, J. (2003). Manual for dynamic modelling of soil response to atmospheric deposition (RIVM report 259101 012). Bilthoven: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., Hettelingh, J.-P., Slootweg, J., & Maas, R. (2008). Illustrative dynamic modeling applications for use in support of European air pollution abatement policies. In J. P. Hettelingh, M. Posch, & J. Slootweg (Eds.), Critical load, dynamic modelling and impact assessment in Europe. CCE status report 2008 (pp. 51–62). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Posch, M., Slootweg, J., & Hettelingh, J.-P. (2012). Modelling and Mapping of atmospherically-induced ecosystem impacts in Europe: CCE status report 2012 (RIVM Report 680359004). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reinds, G. J., Posch, M., & Leemans, R. (2009). Modelling recovery from soil acidification in European forests under climate change. Science of Total Environment, 407, 5663–5673.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Reis, S., Grennfelt, P., Klimont, Z., Amann, M., ApSimon, H., Hettelingh, J.-P., Holland, M., LeGall, A.-C., Maas, R., Posch, M., Spranger, T., Sutton, M. A., & Williams, M. (2012). From acid rain to climate change. Science, 338, 1153–1154.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schöpp, W., Posch, M., Mylona, S., & Johansson, M. (2003). Long-term development of acid deposition (1880–2030) in sensitive freshwater regions in Europe. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 7, 436–446.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Simpson, D., Benedictow, A., Berge, H., Bergström, R., Emberson, L. D., Fagerli, H., Flechard, C. R., Hayman, G. D., Gauss, M., Jonson, J. E., Jenkin, M. E., Nyiri, A., Richter, C., Semeena, V. S., Tsyro, S., Tuovinen, J.-P., Valdebenito, A., & Wind, P. (2012). The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model—technical description. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 12, 7825–7865.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Skjelkvåle, B. L., Stoddard, J. L., Jeffers, J. N. R., Tørseth, K., Høgåsen, T., Bowman, J., Mannio, J., Monteith, D., Mosello, R., Rogora, M., Rzychon, D., Veselý, J., Wieting, J., Wilander, A., & Worsztynowicz, A. (2005). Regional scale evidence for improvements in surface water chemistry 1990-2001. Environmental Pollution, 137, 165–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Slootweg, J., Posch, M., & Hettelingh, J.-P. (2008). Summary of national dataz. In J. P. Hettelingh, M. Posch, & J. Slootweg (Eds.), Critical load, dynamic modelling and impact assessment in Europe (CCE status report 2008) (pp. 29–50). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Slootweg, J., Posch, M., & Hettelingh, J.-P. (2011). Summary of national data. In M. Posch, J. Slootweg, & J. P. Hettelingh (Eds.), Modelling critical thresholds and temporal changes of geochemistry and vegetation diversity: CCE status report 2011 (pp. 29–46). Bilthoven: Coordination Centre for Effects, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spranger, T., Hettelingh, J.-P., Slootweg, J., & Posch, M. (2008). Modelling and mapping long-term risks due to reactive nitrogen effects: An overview of LRTAP convention activities. Environmental Pollution, 154, 482–487.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Stevens, C. J., Duprè, C., Dorland, E., Gaudnik, C., Gowing, D. J. G., Bleeker, A., Diekmann, M., Alard, D., Bobbink, R., Fowler, D., Corcket, E., Mountford, J. O., Vandvik, V., Aarrestad, P. E., Muller, S., & Dise, N. B. (2010). Nitrogen deposition threatens species richness of grasslands across Europe. Environmental Pollution, 158, 2940–2945.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Stoddard, J. L., Jeffries, D. S., Lükewille, A., Clair, T. A., Dillon, P. J., Driscoll, C. T., Forsius, M., Johannessen, M., Kahl, J. S., Kellogg, J. H., Kemp, A., Mannio, J., Monteith, D. T., Murdoch, P. S., Patrick, S., Rebsdorf, A., Skjelkvale, B. L., Stainton, M. P., Traaen, T., van Dam, H., Webster, K. E., Wieting, J., & Wilander, A. (1999). Regional trends in aquatic recovery from acidification in North America and Europe. Nature, 401, 575–578.

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Suutari, R., Amann, M., Cofala, J., Klimont, Z., Posch, M., & Schöpp, W. (2001). From economic activities to ecosystem protection: An uncertainty analysis of two scenarios of the RAINS integrated assessment model. (IIASA/CCE Report 1/2001). Laxenburg: IIASA.

    Google Scholar 

  • UNECE. (1994). Protocol on the further reduction of sulphur emissions, done in Oslo, Norway on 14 June 1994. In United Nations (2004), Handbook for the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and its protocols. United Nations Publication. ISBN: 92-1-116895-3, www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/lrtap/BIBLE.E.pdf, pp. 101–128.

  • UNECE. (1999). Protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground level ozone done at Gothenburg, Sweden, on 30 Nov. 1999. In United Nations (2004), Handbook for the 1979 Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution and its protocols. United Nations Publication. ISBN: 92-1-116895-3, www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/env/lrtap/BIBLE.E.pdf, pp. 213–274.

  • UNECE. (2012). Amendments to the protocol to abate acidification, eutrophication and ground level ozone, decisions 1–4 and consolidated text of the protocol. www.unece.org/env/lrtap/multi_h1.html.

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jean-Paul Hettelingh .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Hettelingh, JP. et al. (2015). Effects-Based Integrated Assessment Modelling for the Support of European Air Pollution Abatement Policies. In: de Vries, W., Hettelingh, JP., Posch, M. (eds) Critical Loads and Dynamic Risk Assessments. Environmental Pollution, vol 25. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-9508-1_25

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics