Abstract
After four decades of strict birth control, the rapid growth of China’s population has been substantially curbed. According to official figures, the total fertility rate dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s, and has continued to decline since then to a level of 1.8 children per woman in the 2000s. But the 2010 population census revealed a much lower figure of 1.2. The authors of this chapter argue that the official figure is an overestimate, and that the 2010 census reflects actual fertility. The chapter first looks at the reasons behind this overestimation. It then examines in more depth recent fertility trends and patterns as they appear from available sources. This is followed by a discussion on the reliability of the 2010 census data, and in particular on the plausibility of widespread underreporting of births, an assumption still largely supported by Chinese officials.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsNotes
- 1.
The five previous censuses were conducted in 1953, 1964, 1982, 1990, and 2000.
- 2.
Chinese censuses distinguish between chengshi (cities) and zhen (small towns, variously translated in English as towns, townships or county towns). Together, the inhabitants of the cities and the towns are considered “urban” in contrast to the rural (xiangcun or xian) population. Some chapters of the present book refer to cities’ and towns’ populations separately, while other merge them into a single urban category.
- 3.
The Gini coefficient is between the values of 0 and 1, with 0 representing perfect equality and 1 the highest level of inequality.
- 4.
Renmin ribao, 23 Aug 2001 [In Chinese].
- 5.
Xinhua News Agency. Xinhua wang, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2013-01/18/c_132111927.htm. Retrieved 25 Sept 2013.
- 6.
GINI Index. The World Bank. Available at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI. Accessed 11 Dec. 2013.
- 7.
This chapter is the partial reproduction of an article published in the academic journal China Perspectives in late 2012 (see Attané I. 2012, “Being a Woman in China Today: a Demography of Gender”, China Perspectives, 2012/4, pp. 5–15).
References
Attané, I. (2011). Au pays des enfants rares. La Chine vers une catastrophe démographique. Paris: Fayard.
Birdsall, N., Kelley, A., & Sinding, S. (2001). Population matters: Demographic change, economic growth and poverty in the developing world. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Bloom, D., Canning, D., & Sevilla, J. (2003). The demographic dividend. A new perspective on the economic consequences of population change. Population matters: Rand’s Publication. http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2007/MR1274.pdf. Accessed 10 Nov 2013.
Bosworth, B., & Collins, S. M. (2008). Accounting for growth: Comparing China and India. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 22(1), 45–66.
Cai, F., Giles, J., O’Keefe, P., & Wang, D. (2012). The elderly and old age support in rural China. The world bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2249/675220PUB0EPI0067882B09780821386859.pdf?sequence=1. Accessed 3 Dec 2013.
Chan, K. (2009). Harmonious society. International encyclopedia of civil society (pp. 821–825) Hong Kong: The Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Chang, G. H., & Brada, J. C. (2006). The paradox of China’s growing under-urbanization. Economic Systems, 30, 24–40.
Huchet, J.-F. (2003). Une réponse politique aux défis économiques de la Chine. Le Monde. 28 Jan 2003.
Jiang, L. (1995). Changing kinship structure and its implications for old-age support in urban and rural China. Population Studies, 49(1), 127–145.
Pei, X., & Pillai, V. K. (1999). Old age support in China: The role of the state and the family. International Journal of Aging and Human Development, 49(3), 197–212.
Salditt, F., Whiteford, P., & Adema, W. (2007). Pension reform in China: progress and prospects. OECD. http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/31/26/38757039.pdf. Accessed 3 Nov 2013.
Tompa, E. (2002). The impact of health on productivity: Empirical evidence and policy implications. The review of economic performance and social progress, 181–202. http://www.csls.ca/repsp/2/emiletompa.pdf. Accessed 3 Dec 2013.
UN-WPP. (2012). United Nations, world population prospects, the 2012 revision. http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm. Accessed 27 Sept 2013.
Yueh, L. (2008). How productive is Chinese labour? The contributions of labour market reforms, competition and globalisation. Economics series working papers, 418. University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
Zhao, Z. (2011). China’s far below replacement fertility and its long-term impact. Demographic Research, 25, 819–836.
Zheng, Y., & Tok, S. K. (2007). ‘Harmonious society’ and ‘Harmonious world’: China’s policy discourse under Hu Jintao. China Policy Institute, The University of Nottingham. Briefing Series, 26.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Attané, I., Gu, B. (2014). China’s Demography in a Changing Society: Old Problems and New Challenges. In: Attané, I., Gu, B. (eds) Analysing China's Population. INED Population Studies, vol 3. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8987-5_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8987-5_1
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-017-8986-8
Online ISBN: 978-94-017-8987-5
eBook Packages: Humanities, Social Sciences and LawSocial Sciences (R0)