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Vulnerability of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries to Climate Change pp 119–130Cite as

Economic Impact of Climate Change on Tunisian Agriculture: The Case of Wheat

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Abstract

This paper measures the potential economic impact of climate change on durum wheat in Tunisia using the Ricardian approach. A model using panel data was estimated for the period 1990–2010 over the main cultivation regions. Gross margin of the durum wheat under rainfed conditions was used as the dependent variable while the explanatory variables were mainly related to climate such as precipitation and temperature, technological progress, and type of soil. Empirical findings show that precipitations during different stages of the growing season affect positively net-income. In addition, the interactions variables between temperature and precipitation in different growth stages are negative. The assessment impact of technology shows a positive coefficient of trend parameter but not statistically significant. Finally, the soil quality index parameter is positively correlated with the net revenue per hectare. This finding indicates that good quality of soil may improve the net income of farmers by increasing wheat yields. Climate change impact was simulated using scenarios from the HadCM3 global circulation. Empirical results indicate that economic impacts are not uniformly distributed across the different regions of Tunisia. These impacts are likely to be more accentuated in the arid regions. A rise in temperature and a reduction in rainfall would cause reductions in gross margin by 4 % in sub-humid areas and 24 % in arid zones. The results further suggest the necessity for wider diffusion of drought-tolerant varieties among farmers and the identification of new agricultural practices as advisable adaptation strategies in order to alleviate the effects of climate change on farmer’s income.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Likelihood Ratio(LR) = − 2(l(res) − l(unres)).

    Where l(res) denotes the restricted maximum likelihood value (under the null hypothesis), while l(unres) denotes the unrestricted maximum likelihood value.

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Acknowledgment

The first author acknowledges financial support for this research from the Fulbright foundation.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Agricultural Economics, National Institute of Research in Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry (INRGREF), 10, 2080, Ariana, Tunisia

    Ali Chebil

  2. Department of Agricultural Economics and Agricultural Business, New Mexico State University, Gerald Thomas Hall Rm. 374, MSC3169, 30003, Las Cruces, NM, 88003-8003, USA

    Brian H. Hurd

  3. Department of Agricultural Economics, Mograne High School of Agriculture (ESA Mograne), 1121, Mograne-Zaghouan, Tunisia

    Nadhem Mtimet & Weslati Bilel

  4. Social, Economic and Policy Research Program (SEPRP), International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA), 5466, Aleppo, Syria

    Boubaker Dhehibi

Authors
  1. Ali Chebil
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  2. Brian H. Hurd
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  3. Nadhem Mtimet
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  4. Boubaker Dhehibi
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  5. Weslati Bilel
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Chebil .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Public Law Department Faculty of Law, Economics, and Social Sciences, Ibn Zohr University of Agadir North-South Center for Social Sciences (NRCS), Agadir, Morocco

    Mohamed Behnassi

  2. Kenya Agricultural Research Institute, Nairobi, Kenya

    Margaret Syomiti Muteng'e

  3. Department of Science and Technology, Vigyan Prasar Government of India, NOIDA, Uttar Pradesh, India

    Gopichandran Ramachandran

  4. National Council for Climate Change Sustainable Development and Public Leadership (NCCSD), Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India

    Kirit N. Shelat

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Chebil, A., Hurd, B.H., Mtimet, N., Dhehibi, B., Bilel, W. (2014). Economic Impact of Climate Change on Tunisian Agriculture: The Case of Wheat. In: Behnassi, M., Syomiti Muteng'e, M., Ramachandran, G., Shelat, K. (eds) Vulnerability of Agriculture, Water and Fisheries to Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8962-2_8

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