Abstract
Develops a case about a fictitious home health care company to illustrate how statistics generated modeling and scenario-based planning are used in risk assessment and how virtue-imbued casuistry can advance moral prescience and prudential business strategizing.
I’m tempted to stop acting randomly. (Adams 2012)
—Dilbert by Scott Adams
Dilbert in response to the boss’ suggestion that they schedule a scenario-based roundtable discussion about their enterprise project management using the company’s infrastructure survey tool to architect a risk-based tiering system.
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Notes
- 1.
My thanks to Academy of Management 2013 Conference reviewer #3 for his or her helpful insights about this chapter.
- 2.
My thanks to Mark Sioma for insights regarding the use of actuaries in strategic planning in large businesses.
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I would like to thank David Thibeault for his fine research assistance in regard to strategy and stochastic modeling .
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(Kourdi 2009, p. 3). For other good descriptions of business strategy, see (Campbell et al. 2002, pp. 14–15; Freeman and Boeker 1984, pp. 73–86; Kaplan and Norton 2004; Mintzberg, 1987, pp. 11–24, 1994, pp. 23; Parthasarthy 2007, pp. 5–13; Porter 1980, p. 4, pp. 34–38; Quinn 1980, pp. 7–9; Williamson et al. 2004, p. 145).
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Herbert Maisel et al describe the difference between descriptive and stochastic modeling as follows: “A system may be regarded either as deterministic or stochastic , depending upon the casual relationship between input and output. The output of a deterministic system can be predicted completely if the input at the initial state of the system are known. That is, for a particular state of the system, a given input always leads to the same output. However a stochastic system in a given state may respond to a given input with any one among a range or distribution of outputs. For a stochastic system—given the input and the state of the system—it is possible to predict only the range within which the output will fall and the frequency with which various particular outputs will be obtained over many repetitions of the observation.” (Maisel and Gnugnoli 1972, pp. 13–14).
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(Kakoty 2011, p. 29). Kakoty goes on to explain: “A stochastic model is used for simulating the evolution of finite populations. It consists of stochastic algorithm which controls the generation of each individual according to the life cycle model. The life cycle consists of production of outputs by randomly picking origin(s)” (Kakoty 2011, p. 30).
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Again, as Aristotle explains in full: “To the thinking soul images serve as if they were contents of perception (and when it asserts or denies them to be good or bad it avoids or pursues them). That is why the soul never thinks without an image” (Aristotle 1928). For more, see (Lowe 1983).
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Calkins, M. (2014). Risk Management: Capturing the Right Situation with Prudent Case Use in Scenario-based Modeling. In: Developing a Virtue-Imbued Casuistry for Business Ethics. Issues in Business Ethics, vol 42. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8724-6_16
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8724-6_16
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