Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Decadal Warning Systems

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change

  • 2331 Accesses

Abstract

Early warning of changes in environmental factors, such as the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather events, are needed to guide infrastructure and resilience planning and to enable early action for disaster relief. Climate has already changed in response to human emissions of greenhouse gases, and even larger changes are expected by the end of the century. However, the coming decade or two will likely be influenced by natural internal variability and other external forcing factors, such as changes in aerosols, which will either reduce or exacerbate the long-term trends in many regions. The new and rapidly evolving field of decadal climate prediction uses climate models initialized with observations to provide policy makers and planners with the most accurate information possible on the climate for the next decade or so, taking into account both natural internal variability and all external forcing factors. This chapter reviews the current state of the art of decadal climate prediction, focusing on the potential sources of skill, forecasting techniques, current capability and future prospects.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 84.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 109.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Alexander MA, Bladé I, Newman M, Lanzante JR, Lau N, Scott JD (2002) The atmospheric bridge: The influence of ENSO teleconnections on air-sea interaction over the global oceans. J Climate 15:2205–2231 Baldwin MP et al (2001) The quasi-biennial oscillation. Rev Geophys 39(2):179–229. doi:10.1029/1999RG000073

  • Balmaseda M, Fujii Y, Alves O, Lee T, Rienecker M, Rosati T, Stammer D, Xue Y, Freeland H, McPhaden MJ, Goddard L, Coelho C (2009) Role of the ocean observing system in an end-to-end seasonal forecasting system. In: Hall J, Harrison DE, Stammer D (eds) Proceedings of OceanObs’09: sustained ocean observations and information for society, vol 2. ESA Publication WPP-306, Venice, Sept 2009, pp 21–25

    Google Scholar 

  • Boer GJ (2004) Long time-scale potential predictability in an ensemble of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 23:29–44. doi:10.1007/s00382-004-0419-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Booth BBB, Dunstone NJ, Halloran PR, Andrews T, Bellouin N (2012) Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability. Nature 53(485):534

    Google Scholar 

  • Braman LM, van Aalst MK, Mason SJ, Suarez P, Ait-Chellouche Y, Tall A (2013) Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008. Disasters 37(1):144–164. doi:10.1111/j.1467-7717.2012.01297.x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Branstator G, Teng H (2010) Two limits of initial-value decadal predictability in a CGCM. J Climate 23:6292–6311. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3678.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Brönnimann S (2007) Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on European climate. Rev Geophys 45:RG3003. doi:10.1029/2006RG000199

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen D, Cane MA, Kaplan A, Zebiak SE, Huang DJ (2004) Predictability of El Niño over the past 148 years. Nature 428:733–736 Chikamoto Y, Kimoto M, Watanabe M, Ishii M, Mochizuki T (2012) Relationship between the Pacific and Atlantic stepwise climate change during the 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 39(21). doi:10.1029/2012GL053901d Collins M (2002) Climate predictability on interannual to decadal time scales: the initial value problem. Clim Dyn 19:671–692. doi:10.1007/s00382-002-0254-8

  • Collins M et al (2006) Interannual to decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic: a multi-model ensemble study. J Climate 19:1195–1203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Corti S, Weisheimer A, Palmer TN, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Magnusson L (2012) Reliability of decadal predictions. Geophys Res Lett 39:L21712. doi:10.1029/2012GL053354

    Google Scholar 

  • Delworth TL, Zhang R, Mann ME (2007) Decadal to centennial variability of the Atlantic from observations and models in ocean circulation: mechanisms and impacts, vol 173, Geophysical monograph series. American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC, pp 131–148

    Google Scholar 

  • Deser C, Phillips AS, Hurrell JW (2004) Pacific interdecadal climate variability: linkages between the tropics and the North Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. J Climate 17:3109–3124

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Doblas-Reyes FJ, Andreu-Burillo I, Chikamoto Y, García-Serrano J, Guémas V, Kimoto M, Mochizuki T, Rodrigues LRL, van Oldenborgh GJ (2013) Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction. Nat Comms 4:1715. doi:10.1038/ncomms2704

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dunstone NJ, Smith DM (2010) Impact of atmosphere and sub-surface ocean data on decadal climate prediction. Geophys Res Lett 37:L02709. doi:10.1029/2009GL041609

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunstone NJ, Smith DM, Eade R (2011) Multi-year predictability of the tropical Atlantic atmosphere driven by the high latitude north Atlantic ocean. Geophys Res Lett 38:L14701. doi:10.1029/2011GL047949

    Google Scholar 

  • Dunstone NJ, Smith DM, Booth BBB, Hermanson L, Eade R (2013) Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms. Nat Geosci. doi:10.1038/NGEO1854

    Google Scholar 

  • Eade R, Hamilton E, Smith DM, Graham RJ, Scaife AA (2012) Forecasting the number of extreme daily events out to a decade ahead. J Geophys Res 117, D21110. doi:10.1029/2012JD018015 Folland CK, Renwick JA, Salinger MJ, Mullan AB (2002) Relative influences of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific convergence zone. Geophys Res Lett 29:1643. doi:10.1029/2001GL014201

  • Goddard L, Kumar A, Solomon A, Smith D, Boer G, Gonzalez P, Kharin V, Merryfield W, Deser C, Mason S, Kirtman B, Msadek R, Sutton R, Hawkins E, Fricker T, Hegerl G, Ferro C, Stephenson D, Meehl G, Stockdale T, Burgman R, Greene A, Kushnir Y, Newman M, Carton J, Fukumori I, Delworth T (2012) A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1481-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Goldenberg SB, Shapiro LJ (1996) Physical mechanisms for the association of El Nino and West African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J Climate 9:1169–1187

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gray LJ, Beer J, Geller M, Haigh JD, Lockwood M, Matthes K, Cubasch U, Fleitmann D, Harrison G, Hood L, Luterbacher J, Meehl GA, Shindell D, van Geel B, White W (2010) Solar influences on climate. Rev Geophys 48:RG4001. doi:10.1029/2009RG000282

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Griffies SM, Bryan K (1997) Predictability of North Atlantic multidecadal climate variability. Science 275:181. doi:10.1126/science.275.5297.181

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanlon HM, Hegerl GC, Tett SFB, Smith DM (2013) Can a decadal forecasting system predict temperature extreme indices? J Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00512.1

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Hawkins E, Sutton R (2011) The potential to narrow uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change. Clim Dyn 37:407. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0810-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hazeleger W, Guemas V, Wouters B, Corti S, Andreu-Burillo I, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Wyser K, Caian M (2013) Multiyear climate predictions using two initialisation strategies. Geophys Res Lett. doi:10.1002/grl.50355

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, Karoly D (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ineson S, Scaife AA, Knight JR, Manners JC, Dunstone NJ, Gray LJ, Haigh JD (2011) Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat Geosci 4:753–757. doi:10.1038/ngeo1282 IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S et al (eds) Contribution of Working Group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

  • IPCC (2012) Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation. A special report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field CB, Barros V, Stocker TF, Qin D, Dokken DJ, Ebi KL, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Plattner G-K, Allen SK, Tignor M, Midgley PM (eds)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK/New York, 582 pp IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Available at: http://www.ipcc.ch/

  • Iwi AM, Hermanson L, Haines K, Sutton RT (2012) Mechanisms linking volcanic aerosols to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. J Climate 25:3039–3051. doi: 10.1175/2011JCLI4067.1

  • Jungclaus JH, Haak H, Latif M, Mikolajewicz U (2005) Arctic-North Atlantic interactions and multidecadal variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation. J Climate 18:4013–4031

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Keenlyside N, Latif M, Jungclaus J, Kornblueh L, Roeckner E (2008) Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector. Nature 453:84–88

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kharin VV, Boer GJ, Merryfield WJ, Scinocca JF, Lee W-S (2012) Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate. Geophys Res Letts 39, L19705. doi:10.1029/2012GL052647

  • Knight JR, Allan RJ, Folland CK, Vellinga M, Mann ME (2005) A signature of persistent natural thermohaline circulation cycles in observed climate. Geophys Res Letts 32, L20708. doi:10.1029/2005GL024233

  • Knight JR, Folland CK, Scaife AA (2006) Climatic impacts of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17706. doi:10.1029/2006GL026242

  • Kirtman, BP (1997) Oceanic Rossby wave dynamics and the ENSO period in a coupled model. J Climate 10:1690–1705 Lean JL, Rind DH (2009) How will Earth’s surface temperature change in future decades? Geophys Res Lett 36:L15708. doi:10.1029/2009GL038932

  • Luo J-J, Masson S, Behera S, Yamagata T (2008) Extended ENSO predictions using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model. J Climate 21:84–93

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Magnusson L, Balmaseda M, Corti S, Molteni F, Stockdale T (2012) Evaluation of forecast strategies for seasonal and decadal forecasts in presence of systematic model errors. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1599-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC (1997) A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:1069–1079

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall AG, Scaife AA (2009) Impact of the QBO on surface winter climate. J Geophys Res 114:D18110. doi:10.1029/2009JD011737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Marshall AG, Scaife AA, Ineson S (2009) Enhanced seasonal prediction of European winter warming following volcanic eruptions. J Climate 22:6168–6180

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Matthes K, Kurods Y, Kodera K, Langematz U (2006) Tranfer of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the troposphere: northern winter. J Geophys Res 111:D06108. doi:10.1029/2005JD006283

    Google Scholar 

  • McCabe GJ, Palecki MA, Betancourt JL (2004) Pacific and Atlantic Ocean influences on multidecadal drought frequency in the United States. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 101:4136–4141. doi:10.1073/pnas.0306738101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Hu A (2006) Megadroughts in the Indian monsoon region and southwest North America and a mechanism for associated multi-decadal Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. J Climate 19:1605–1623

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA, Hu A, Tebaldi C (2010) Decadal prediction in the Pacific region. J Climate 23:2959–2973

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meehl GA et al (2013) Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches. Bull Amer Met Soc. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00241.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Mochizuki T et al (2009) Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction. Proc Natl Acad Sci 107:1833–1837

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • NRC (2010) Assessment of intraseasonal to interannual climate prediction and predictability. National Research Council, The National Academies Press, Washington, DC. ISBN 0-309-15184-8

    Google Scholar 

  • OtterÃ¥ OH, Bentsen M, Drange H, Suo L (2010) External forcing as a metronome for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Nat Geosci. doi:10.1038/NGEO955

    Google Scholar 

  • Palmer TN et al (2004) Development of a European multi-model ensemble system for seasonal to inter-annual prediction (DEMETER). Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:853–872

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pohlmann H, Botzet M, Latif M, Roesch A, Wild M, Tschuck P (2004) Estimating the decadal predictability of a coupled AOGCM. J Climate 17:4463–4472

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pohlmann H, Jungclaus J, Köhl A, Stammer D, Marotzke J (2009) Initializing decadal climate predictions with the GECCO oceanic synthesis: effects on the North Atlantic. J Climate 22:3926–3938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pohlmann H, Smith DM, Balmaseda MA, Keenlyside NS, Masina S, Matei D, Müller WA, Rogel P (2013) Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V (1999) Interdecadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Clim Dyn 15:319–324

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robock A (2000) Volcanic eruptions and climate. Rev Geophys 38:191–219

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Robson JI, Sutton RT, Smith DM (2012) Initialized decadal predictions of the rapid warming of the North Atlantic ocean in the mid 1990s. Geophys Res Lett 39:L19713. doi:10.1029/2012GL053370

    Google Scholar 

  • Robson JI, Sutton RT, Smith DM (2013) Predictable climate impacts of the decadal changes in the ocean in the 1990s. J Climate 26:6329–6339. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00827.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rodgers KB, Friederichs P, Latif M (2004) Tropical Pacific decadal variability and its relation to decadal modulations of ENSO. J Climate 17:3761–3774. doi:10.1175/1520-0442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Roemmich D, Owens WB (2000) The Argo project: global ocean observations for understanding and prediction of climate variability. Oceanography 13:45–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schopf PS, Burgman RJ (2006) A simple mechanism for ENSO residuals and asymmetry. J Climate 19:3167–3179. doi:10.1175/JCLI3765.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schubert SD, Suarez M, Pegion PJ, Koster RD, Bacmeister JT (2004) On the cause of the 1930s dustbowl. Science 33:1855–1859

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Cusack S, Colman AW, Folland CK, Harris GR, Murphy JM (2007) Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science 317:796–799. doi:10.1126/science.1139540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Eade R, Dunstone NJ, Fereday D, Murphy JM, Pohlmann H, Scaife AA (2010) Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat Geosci 3:846–849. doi:10.1038/NGEO1004

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Scaife AA, Kirtman B (2012a) What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? Environ Res Lett 7:015602. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/1/015602

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Scaife AA, Boer GJ, Caian M, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Guemas V, Hawkins E, Hazeleger W, Hermanson L, Ho CK, Ishii M, Kharin V, Kimoto M, Kirtman B, Lean J, Matei D, Merryfield WJ, Muller WA, Pohlmann H, Rosati A, Wouters B, Wyser K (2012b) Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1600-0

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith DM, Eade R, Pohlmann H (2013) A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1683-2

    Google Scholar 

  • Son S-W, Polvani LM, Waugh DW, Akiyoshi H, Garcia R, Kinnison D, Pawson S, Rozanov E, Shepherd TG, Shibata K (2008) The impact of stratospheric ozone recovery on the southern hemisphere westerly jet. Science 320:1486–1489. doi:10.1126/science.1155939 Stenchikov G, Delworth TL, Ramaswamy V, Stouffer RJ, Wittenberg A, Zeng F (2009) Volcanic signals in the oceans. J Geophys Res 114:D16104. doi:10.1029/2008JD011673

  • Sutton RT, Hodson DLR (2005) Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate. Science 309:115–118

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tang BH, Neelin JD (2004) ENSO influence on Atlantic hurricanes via tropospheric warming. Geophys Res Lett 31:L24204

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 92:485–498. doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Caron JM (2000) The southern oscillation revisited: sea level pressures, surface temperatures and precipitation. J Climate 13:4358–4365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vecchi GA, Msadek R, Anderson W, Chang Y-S, Delworth T, Dixon K, Gudgel R, Rosati A, Stern B, Villarini G, Wittenberg A, Yang X, Zeng F, Zhang R, Zhang S (2013) Multi-year predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: promise and limitations. J Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00464.1

    Google Scholar 

  • Vellinga M, Wu P (2004) Low-latitude freshwater influence on centennial variability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. J Climate 17:4498–4511

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Vecchi GA (2012) Twenty-first-century projections of North Atlantic tropical storms from CMIP5 models. Nat Clim Change 2:604–607

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Woollings T, Lockwood M, Masato G, Bell C, Gray L (2010) Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate. Geophys Res Lett 37:L20805. doi:10.1029/2010GL044601

    Google Scholar 

  • Zanchettin D, Bothe O, Graf HF, Lorenz SJ, Luterbacher J, Timmreck C, Jungclaus JH (2013) Background conditions influence the decadal climate response to strong volcanic eruptions. J Geophys Res. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50229

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R, Delworth TL (2006) Impact of Atlantic multidecadal oscillations on India/Sahel rainfall and Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys Res Lett 33:L17712. doi:10.1029/2006GL026267

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang R et al (2013) Have aerosols caused the observed atlantic multidecadal variability? J Atmos Sci 70:1135–1144, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-0331.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK

    Doug Smith

Authors
  1. Doug Smith
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Doug Smith .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Early Warning and Assessment, United Nations Environment Programme, Washington, DC, District of Columbia, USA

    Ashbindu Singh

  2. Division of Early Warning and Assessment, United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi, Kenya

    Zinta Zommers

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2014 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Smith, D. (2014). Decadal Warning Systems. In: Singh, A., Zommers, Z. (eds) Reducing Disaster: Early Warning Systems For Climate Change. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3_16

Download citation

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-8598-3_16

  • Published:

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-017-8597-6

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-017-8598-3

  • eBook Packages: EnergyEnergy (R0)

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation