Abstract
Health and health care are markedly impacted by demographic factors including rates of population growth, aging and racial/ethnic diversification. The number of incidences of disease/disorders will increase by 48.6%, although the population is projected to increase by only 36.1% from 2010 to 2060. The nonHispanic White population is projected to show a 3.7% increase in the number of health incidences from 2010 to 2060, nonHispanic Black population increasing by 77.3%, the Hispanic population by 239.3 and nonHispanic Asians and Others by 193.3%. Projections indicate future shortages in the number of health care personnel with the number of personnel increasing by 7.4% while disease incidences increase by 48.6%. From 2010 to 2060 physician contacts are projected to increase by 54.1%, hospital days by 76.0%, physician costs by 56.8%, and hospital costs by 55.1% (in 2010 constant dollars). The reduced financial resources projected for the population and the aging of the population will increase Medicaid enrollment by 58.5% and Medicare enrollment by 102.7%. Population aging will increase Medicare costs to one trillion dollars per year, persons in nursing homes to 3.8 million and nursing home costs to $12.1 billion per month by 2060. Clearly understanding the characteristics of the population of the United States is essential to understanding its future health care requirements and costs.
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Notes
- 1.
These projections use as a starting point Medicaid/CHIP enrollment rates prior to the full implementation of the Affordable Care Act.
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Murdock, S.H., Cline, M.E., Zey, M., Perez, D., Jeanty, P.W. (2015). Implications of Population Change for Health, Health Care, and Public Assistance Programs in the United States. In: Population Change in the United States. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-7288-4_6
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