Impacts of Future Demographic Change on Education in the United States

Abstract

Demographic and socioeconomic change effects school enrollment and related costs. Nearly 50 million children were enrolled in public elementary and secondary education in the United States in 2010 and more than 15 million in public colleges and universities. Change in enrollment will be due to minority students such that by 2060, of the 59.2 million enrolled in elementary and secondary schools, only 32.1% will be nonHispanic White and, of the 17.9 million enrolled in public colleges and universities, only 41.7% will be nonHispanic White (compared to 52.4 and 62.6% respectively in 2010). By comparison 38.5% of those enrolled in elementary and secondary schools and 27.3% of those enrolled in colleges and universities will be Hispanic. Costs for elementary and secondary education will increase from $604 Billion in 2010 to nearly $723 billion per year in 2060. College costs are projected to increase from $305 to nearly $361 billion. Costs of college attendance have increased while public support has lagged such that the percent of students with financial need unmet by household resources (and thus requiring outside financial assistance) is increasing. By 2060, 55.4% of nonHispanic Blacks, 48.9% of Hispanics, 54.9% of nonHispanic Asian and Others and 43.8% of nonHispanic Whites will have unmet financial need of $10,000 or more per year. Higher levels of education are of increasing importance to economic success but costs for college attendance will present increasing obstacles to college attendance for all students, and particularly for minority students.