Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Introduction

  • Chapter
Population Change in the United States

  • 345 Accesses

Abstract

Change in rates of population growth and in the characteristics of populations are often seen as background information that do not directly alter the future socioeconomic characteristics of the United States. This chapter provides evidence clearly establishing that change in the size, distribution, age, gender, race/ethnicity, household composition, and other characteristics of populations directly and indirectly impact future socioeconomic and subsequent demand for public and private goods and services. It delineates how, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau and a large array of data collected by the authors, population-based projections of educational attainment, change in income and other economic resources, public services, the labor force, households, housing demand, health care requirements, levels of financial investment, and transportation can be used to understand and plan for the future of the United States.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 39.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 54.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

Notes

  1. 1.

    This section of this chapter was largely derived from our earlier work, see Murdock et al. (2014).

References

  • Abdullah, A. J., Doucouliagos, H., Manning, E. (2011). Education and income inequality: A meta-regression analysis. Paper presented at MAER-NET colloquium (September 16–18, 2011), Wolfson College. University of Cambridge.

    Google Scholar 

  • Acs, G., Bracewell, K., Sorenson, E., & Turner, M. (2013). The Moynihan report revisited. Washington, DC: The Urban Institute.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahlburg, D. A., & Land, K. C. (1992). Population forecasting: Guest editors’ introduction. International Journal of Forecasting, 8, 289–299.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ashenfelter, O., & Rouse, C. (1999). Schooling, intelligence and income in America: Cracks in the bell curve (Working paper 6902 (January)). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Baretz-Snowden, J., Rock, D., Pollock, J., & Wilder, G. (1988). Educational progress of language minority children: Findings from the NAEP 1985–86 special study. Princeton: National Assessment of Educational Progress/Educational Testing Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bartik, T. J. (2011). Who benefits? Distributional effects of early childhood programs and business incentives, and their implications for policy. In T. Bartik (Ed.), Investing in kids: Early childhood programs and local economic development (pp. 219–266). Kalamazoo: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Beaton, A. E. (1986). National assessment of educational progress 1983–84, technical report. Princeton: National Assessment of Educational Progress/Educational Testing Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • Becker, G. S. (1967). Human capital and the personal distribution of income. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Berry, B. J. L., & Horton, F. E. (1970). Geographic perspectives on urban systems with integrated readings. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bowman, M. J., & Anderson, C. A. (1963). Concerning the role of education in development. In C. Geetz (Ed.), Old societies and new states (pp. 247–279). Glencoe: Free Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Breton, T. R. (2010). Schooling and national income: How large are the externalities? Education Economics, 18(1), 67–92.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Card, D. (1999). The casual effect of education on earnings. In O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (Eds.), Handbook of labor economics (Vol. 3, pp. 1801–1834). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cheeseman Day, J., & Newburger, E. C. (2002). The big payoff: Educational attainment and synthetic estimates of work-life earnings (Current population reports P23-210 (July)). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cohn, E., & Addison, J. T. (1998). The economic returns to lifelong learning. Education Economics, 6(3), 253–308.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cohn, D., & Bahrampour, T. (2006, May 10). Of U.S. children under 5, nearly half are minorities. The Washington Post. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/concent/article/2006/05/09/AR2006050901841.html. Accessed 22 Jan 2011.

  • Davern, M. E., & Fisher, P. J. (2001). Household net worth and asset ownership: 1995 (Current population reports P70-71 (February)). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Denison, E. F. (1962). The sources of economic growth in the United States and alternatives before us (Supplementary paper no. 13). New York: Committee on Economic Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • Denny, K., Harmon, C., & Redmond, S. (2000). Functional literacy, educational attainment and earnings-evidence from the international adult literacy survey (April). London, UK: The Institute for Fiscal Studies, WP 00/09.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duncan, O. D. (1964). Social organization and the ecosystem. In R. Farris (Ed.), Handbook of modern sociology (pp. 36–82). Chicago: Rand McNally and Co.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duncan, O. D., & Schnore, L. F. (1959). Cultural, behavioral, and ecological perspectives in the study of social organization. American Journal of Sociology, 65(2), 132–153.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Duncan, G., Ludwig, J., & Magnuson, K. (2007). Reducing poverty through pre-school intervention. The Future of Children, 17, 143–160.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ekstrom, R. B., Goertz, M. E., Pollack, J. M., & Rock, D. A. (1986). Who drops out of high school and why? Findings from a national study. Teachers College Record, 87, 356–373.

    Google Scholar 

  • ESRI. (2007). Evaluating population projections – The importance of accurate forecasting. White paper. http://www.esri.com/library/whitepapers/pdfs/evaluating-population.pdf. Accessed 12 Mar 2014.

  • Gibbs, J. P., & Martin, W. T. (1959). Toward a theoretical system of human ecology. The Pacific Sociological Review, 2(1), 29–36.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gordon, R. J., & Becker, I. D. (2012). Controversies about the rise of American inequality: A survey (Working paper no. 13982). New York: NBER.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gottschalk, A. O. (2008). Net worth and the assets of households: 2002 (Current population reports P70-115 (April)). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gribble, J. N., & Bremner, J. (2012). Achieving a demographic dividend. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. http://www.prb.org/pdf12/achieving-demographic-dividend.pdf. Accessed 12 Oct 2014.

  • Hanoch, G. (1967). An economic analysis of earning and schooling. Journal of Human Resources, 2(Summer), 310–329.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hawley, A. H. (1950). Human ecology: A theory of community structure. New York: Ronald.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isaacs, J. B. (2010). Child poverty during the great recession: Predicting state child poverty rates for 2010 (Executive summary (December)). Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isaacs, J. B. (2011). The recession’s ongoing impact on America’s children: Indicators of children’s economic well-being through 2011. Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isaacs, J. B. (2012). Starting school at a disadvantage: The school readiness of poor children (Executive summary (March)). Washington, DC: The Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Isaacs, J. B., & Magnuson, K. (2011). Income and education as predictors of children’s school readiness. Washington DC: Brookings Institution.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jacob, B. A., & Ludwig, J. (2009). Improving educational outcomes for poor children. In M. Cancian & S. Danziger (Eds.), Changing poverty, changing politics. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnson, K. M., & Lichter, D. T. (2010). Growing diversity among America’s children and youth: Spatial and temporal dimensions. Population and Development Review, 36(1), 151–176.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Julian, T. A., & Kominski, R. A. (2011). Education and synthetic work – Life earnings estimates (American community survey reports. ACS-14). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, P. J. (2005a). Income of U.S. workforce projected to decline if education doesn’t improve. Policy alert. San Jose: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, P. J. (2005b). As America becomes more diverse: The impact of State higher education inequality (Report). Boulder: National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS).

    Google Scholar 

  • Lutz, W. (2012). Demographic metabolism: A predictive theory of socioeconomic change. Population and Development Review, 38, 283–301.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mannheim, K. (1952 [1928]). The problem of generations. In P. Kecskemeti (Ed.), Essays on the sociology of knowledge. New York: Routledge & Kegan Paul. Originally published as Das problem der generationen. Kölner Vierteljahreshefte für Soziologie 7 (1928), pp. 157–185.

    Google Scholar 

  • Maralani, V. (2013). The demography of social mobility: Black-white differences in the process of educational reproduction. American Journal of Sociology, 118(6), 1509–1558.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mather, M. (2009). Children in immigrant families chart new path (Reports on America). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • McKinsey & Company. (2009). The economic impact of the achievement gap in America’s schools, summary of findings. New York: Social Sector Office.

    Google Scholar 

  • Micklin, M., & Poston, D. L., Jr. (Eds.). (1998). Continuities in sociological human ecology. New York: Plenum Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milne, A., & Gombert, J. (1983). Students with a primary language other than English: Distribution and service rates. In K. Baker & A. DeKanter (Eds.), Bilingual education (pp. 133–138). Lexington: Heath.

    Google Scholar 

  • Milne, A., Myers, D. E., Rosenthal, A. S., & Ginsberg, A. (1986). Single parents, working mothers, and the educational achievement of school children. Sociology of Education, 59, 125–139.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mincer, J. (1974). Schooling, experience and earnings. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H. (1995). An America challenged: Population change and the future of the United States. Boulder: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., & Albrecht, D. E. (1998). An ecological investigation of agricultural patterns in the United States. In M. Micklin & D. L. Poston Jr. (Eds.), Continuities in sociological human ecology (pp. 299–316). New York: Plenum Press.

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., & Ellis, D. (1991). Applied demography: An introduction to basic concepts, methods, and data. Boulder: Westview Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., & Sutton, W. A., Jr. (1974). The new ecology and community theory: Similarities, differences, and convergences. Rural Sociology, 39, 319–333.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., Backman, K., Hoque, M. N., & Ellis, D. (1991). The implications of change in population size and composition on future participation in outdoor recreational activities. Journal of Leisure Research, 23, 238–259.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., Hoque, N., Michael, M., White, S., & Pecotte, B. (1997). The Texas challenge: Population change and the future of Texas. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., White, S., Hoque, M. N., Pecotte, B., You, X., & Balkan, J. (2003). The new Texas challenge: Population change and the future of Texas. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., Cline, M. E., & Zey, M. (2012). The children of the Southwest. Washington, DC: First Focus.

    Google Scholar 

  • Murdock, S. H., Cline, M. E., Zey, M., Jeanty, P. W., & Perez, D. (2014). Changing Texas: Implications of addressing or ignoring the Texas challenge. College Station: Texas A&M University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Namboodiri, K. (1988). Ecological demography: Its place in sociology. American Sociological Review, 53(4), 619–633.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • National Assessment of Educational Progress. (1985). The reading report card. Princeton: Educational Testing Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. (2005). Income of U.S. workforce projected to decline if education doesn’t improve. San Jose: National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education.

    Google Scholar 

  • Park, R. E. (1936). Human ecology. American Journal of Sociology, 42, 1–15.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J., & Cohn, D. (2008a). Trends in unauthorized immigration: Undocumented inflow now trails legal inflow (October). Washington, DC: Pew Hispanic Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Passel, J., & Cohn, D. (2008b). U.S. population projections: 2005–2050 (11 February). Washington DC: Pew Hispanic Center.

    Google Scholar 

  • Perez, A. D., & Hirschman, C. (2009). The changing racial and ethnic composition of the U.S. population: Emerging American identities. Population and Development Review, 35, 1–51.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Psacharopoulos, G., & Tilak, J. B. G. (1992). Education and wage earnings. In M. C. Alkin (Ed.), The encyclopedia of educational research (pp. 419–423). New York: American Educational Research Association. Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reardon, S. F. (2011). The widening academic achievement gap between the rich and poor: New evidence and possible explanations. In R. Murname & G. Duncan (Eds.), Social inequality and economic disadvantage (pp. 91–116).

    Google Scholar 

  • Romer, P. M. (1990). Human capital and growth: Theory and evidence. Carnegie-Rochester Series on Public Policy, 32, 251–286.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosen, S. (1987). Human capital. In J. Eatwell, M. Milgrate, & P. Newman (Eds.), The new Palgrave dictionary of economics (Vol. 2, pp. 681–690). London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryan, C., & Siebens, J. (2012). Educational attainment in the United States: 2009 (Current population reports P20-566 (February)). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ryder, N. (1965). The cohort as a concept in the study of social change. American Sociological Review, 30(6), 843–861.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, T. W. (1963). The economic values of education. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schultz, T. W. (1968). Resources for higher education: An economist’s view. Journal of Political Economy, 76, 327–347.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Siegel, J. S. (2002). Applied demography: Applications to business, government, law, and public policy. Salt Lake City: Academic.

    Google Scholar 

  • Siegel, J. S., & Swanson, D. (Eds.). (2004). The methods and materials of demography. San Diego: Elsevier Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, S. K., Tayman, J., & Swanson, D. A. (2001). State and local population projections: Methodology and analysis. New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tayman, J., Smith, S. K., & Rayer, S. (2011). Evaluating population forecast accuracy: A regression approach using county data. Population Research and Policy Review, 30(2), 235–262.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tolley, G. S., & Olson, E. (1971). The interdependence between income and education. Journal of Political Economy, 79, 460–480.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Turner, M., Santos, R., Levy, D., Wissoker, D., Aranda, C., & Pitingolo, R. (2013). Housing discrimination against racial and ethnic minorities 2012. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2011). 2010 American community survey. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2012a). Population projections press release December 12, 2012. Press release. U.S. Census Bureau. http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb12-243.html. Accessed 12 Dec 2012.

  • U.S. Census Bureau. (2012b). 2012 National population projections. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Census Bureau, & U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2011). Educational attainment-people 25 years old and over, by total money earnings in 2010, work experience in 2010, age, race, Hispanic origin, and sex (Current population survey, annual social and economic supplement). Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Hobby Center & Department of Sociology, Rice University, Houston, Texas, USA

    Steve H. Murdock

  2. Hobby Ctr. for the Study of Texas, Rice University, Houston, Texas, USA

    Michael E. Cline

  3. University of Texas at San Antonio, San Antonio, Texas, USA

    Mary Zey

  4. Alexandria, Virginia, USA

    Deborah Perez

  5. Verizon Wireless, Hilliard, Ohio, USA

    P. Wilner Jeanty

Authors
  1. Steve H. Murdock
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Michael E. Cline
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Mary Zey
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Deborah Perez
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. P. Wilner Jeanty
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Murdock, S.H., Cline, M.E., Zey, M., Perez, D., Jeanty, P.W. (2015). Introduction. In: Population Change in the United States. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-7288-4_1

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation