Abstract
To understand current trends in forest sector modeling and to speculate on potential future developments, we consider the form and nature of today’s forest policy debates. Expansion in the breadth of system attributes to be considered and the need to understand the interconnectedness of these attributes in policy decisions are major concerns for sector modeling. This paper reviews forest sector market models classified by: (1) number of endogenous market levels, (2) treatment of spatial market relations, and (3) assumptions about producer and consumer knowledge of the market and the future. Models are considered in terms of their characteristics, decisions in developing their structure, how the structure affects the things that can be made endogenous, and the implications of these features for conducting policy studies. We conclude that future efforts should: (a) develop spatial, intertemporal optimization models with multiple market levels; (b) examine constraints on adjustment flexibility in the intertemporal welfare maximization format; (c) develop methods that allow joint simulation of market and resource models retaining their respective detail; (d) directly embrace the “messiness” of real world market-resource conditions; and (e) be explicit about the uncertainty inherent in policy scenarios and projections.
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Adams, D.M., Haynes, R.W. (1999). Forest Sector Modeling. In: Yoshimoto, A., Yukutake, K. (eds) Global Concerns for Forest Resource Utilization. Forestry Sciences, vol 62. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-6397-4_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-6397-4_13
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