Toward a Theory of the Dynamics of Conflict

Abstract

The purpose of the research¹ reported herein is to develop quantitative theories of escalation and de-escalation of conflict. This research, although emphasizing theory, is grounded in the basic needs of practicing foreign-policy makers. The potential value of an adequate theory to a practitioner is that it predicts the consequences of a contemplated policy. A more powerful theory tells him more precisely when and what actions to take in order to affect its outcome in a desired direction. For example, modern economic theory permits the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board to predict the effect of various monetary and tax policies and to determine when to take fiscal and monetary action, so as to at least partially control economic conditions. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop a theory which will provide similar guidance to statesmen who can affect international conflict situations by diplomatic, trade and military action.