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Milankovitch and Climate pp 637–652Cite as

Self-Oscillations, External Forcings, and Climate Predictability

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Part of the book series: NATO ASI Series ((volume 126))

Abstract

A class of nonlinear climate models involving two simultaneously stable states, one stationary and one time-periodic, is analyzed. The evolution is cast in a universal, “normal form”, from which a basic difference between “radial” and “phase” variables emerges. In particular, it is shown that the phase variable has poor stability properties which are at the origin of progressive loss of predictability when the oscillator is autonomous. Next, the coupling to an external periodic forcing is considered. New types of solution are found, which correspond to a sharp and reproducible behavior of the phase. In this way predictability is ensured. Moreover, it is shown that the response can be considerably amplified by a mechanism of resonance with certain harmonics of the forcing. The implication of the results on the mechanism of quaternary glaciations is emphasized.

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Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institut d’Aéronomie Spatiale de Belgique, B-1180, Brussels, Belgium

    C. Nicolis

Authors
  1. C. Nicolis
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Institut d’Astronomie et de Géophysique Georges Lemaitre, Université Catholique de Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium

    A. Berger

  2. Department of Geological Sciences, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA

    J. Imbrie

  3. Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA

    J. Hays  & G. Kukla  & 

  4. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, USA

    B. Saltzman

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© 1984 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht

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Nicolis, C. (1984). Self-Oscillations, External Forcings, and Climate Predictability. In: Berger, A., Imbrie, J., Hays, J., Kukla, G., Saltzman, B. (eds) Milankovitch and Climate. NATO ASI Series, vol 126. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-4841-4_11

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-4841-4_11

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-90-277-1778-8

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-017-4841-4

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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