Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for the Gambia

Summary

The Gambia assessment of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change covers the development of scenarios and the assessment of the agriculture (crop production), water resources, forestry, grasslands and livestock, and coastal resources sectors. This chapter presents the development of scenarios, and the analyses of the agriculture and coastal resources sectors. (The other sector analyses are still incomplete.) For the agriculture sector in The Gambia, under 2×CO₂ scenarios, production of cereal crops is estimated to decrease, and production of groundnuts, an export crop, is estimated to increase. Second-order impacts such as the need to import more food are possible. Because most of the developed area of The Gambia, including the capital city of Banjul, is along the topographically flat coast, a 1.0 m sea level rise would have devastating effects. Also lost would be the mangroves and their fish spawning areas, and approximately US$217 million worth of land Implementation of adaptation strategies and policies to both protect the coastline and discourage development on the coast could alleviate much of the damage. An economic analysis of crop production has not yet been performed Also, adaptation options have not yet been completely assessed These issues will be addressed as the study is completed.