Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessments for Ukraine

Summary

This chapter presents the results of preliminary analyses of the vulnerability of the forest, water resources, and coastal resources sectors of Ukraine. For the forest sector, the Holdridge Life Zone Classification Model was used. Generally, the northern forests would remain unchanged, but total forested area would decrease by 39% to 47%. For the water resources sector, preliminary assessments were made of changes in the water supply at three main gauging sites of Dnieper water reservoirs under different climate change scenarios. Changes in runoff varied widely under the various scenarios. Water resources supply and the ratio of total water demand to total water supply were also estimated, holding demand constant because of the difficulty of predicting future demand given an economy in transition. The only cases in which water demand is estimated to exceed water supply are at one of three study sites under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory 1% transient and Max Planck transient scenarios. Water supply is predicted to increase under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory equilibrium and United Kingdom Meteorological Office scenarios in 2075, and decrease under the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 1% transient scenarios. For the coastal resources sector, dynamic investigations and onsite observations of the coastline were made, and land losses due to inundation and erosion were estimated to be 32 km² under a 0.5 m sea level rise and 370 km² under a 2.0 m sea level rise.